I've been following the NBA since 2006, so I have seen Russell evolve through his entire career. submitted by
Let's talk about the good first:
The guy is HYPER AGGRESSIVE, his mentality is attack attack attack and it makes him extremely fun to watch when his offence is on point.
He is still blazing quick even on the tail end of his prime (he was even able to blow by Dort a couple times)
For the majority of his career he had a lethal pull up midrange game, although he has stopped using it as of late. Perhaps due to the rockets system.
His finishing ability is elite around the rim, he knows how to use angles to get his shot off even when draped with defenders.
Counting stats he is a marvel, averaging a triple double for three seasons is no small feat. Career averages 23.2/7.1/8.3
He is also pretty durable, having played 80+ games 7 times.
He also has an MVP, 2 scoring title, 9x all-star, 8x all-nba.
His talent is undeniable. (This regular season with HOU might be his best season as a player)
Playing him in 2k is fun as hell.
Now for the bad:
He is a strong regular season player but in the playoffs he becomes way too predictable and therefore easy to stop. When you know he is going to drive and kick every time its your best bet to play the passing lanes.
Russell has a bad habit of shooting 3's too much. He's a career 30% shooter and it shows (especially in the playoffs). I wonder how many OKC fans have pulled out hairs watching him brick 3 after 3.
His OKC playoff record after KD left is 0-4, all first round exits and only winning 4 playoff games over that stretch. (To make matters worse OKC with Chris Paul out performed expectations and were 1 possession away from knocking HOU out)
Unlike Chris Paul he does not make his teammates better than the sum of their parts.
His aggressiveness cuts negatively too, he tends to get tunnel vision especially when the game is on the line, and it really hurts his team (see the 2019 series against Utah).
The final point is you never know which westbrook will show up in the playoffs. He will have games where he absolutely goes off and then he will have games where he shoots himself and his team out of the game. Consistently inconsistent when it matters the most.
My conclusion is: Russell is a first ballot Hall of Fame talent, but as he currently is I do not see him winning a championship. He is an electrifying player but also a frustrating one. A regular season monster but a playoff disappointment.
What do you guys think about Russell?
. I am using a throwaway.
This is a beast of a post. A few thoughts related to its size:
- Please don't read the whole thing; it's skimmable.
- TL;DR – lawyer, doctor, psych researcher, or (jokingly, unless…) novelist?
To make a long story short, I'm an unhappy software engineer (unhappy with my career, not with life in general), and I committed about a year ago to making a change. Since that time, I've vacillated wildly in my thinking on the various career options available (never able to fully commit), and at this point it's causing me a ton of anxiety: I've gotta choose something, but there just doesn't seem to be a clear answer. My family and partner are running out of patience, and I feel the same way: It's time to get a move on, already.
"Getting a move on" is super fucking hard, though (not to mention terrifying, given the stakes). How are you supposed to compare, on the one hand, cognitive fit (i.e. being good at your job) with, on the other hand, likelihood of being able to pursue your own lines of inquiry or expression (i.e. not feeling like a cog)? Where does money fit into all of this?
The sheer number of different paradigms for career choice seems to be evidence that nobody else really has a clear idea either: "Do what you love." "Do what you like the most out of medicine, law, finance, and engineering." "Work sucks: Make money and retire." "Working for someone else sucks: Start a business or be your own boss."
Then there are the more complicated ones, like Ikagi, or the Waitbutwhy octopus, or 80,000 Hours' five-star system.
Every different paradigm comes up with a different answer, and the same paradigm often comes up with different answers depending on things that seem like they should not be able to shift paradigms, like what mood I happen to be in at the moment.
I do have some concrete things to work with, namely that I think I've been able to pinpoint why I don't like software engineering. Three main reasons: 1 - Lack of Cognitive Fit:
On pretty much every sort of standardized test thrown at me, there will invariably be a huge imbalance between subscores (verbal = higher, math = lower), with further cleavage between the mathematics subscores (numeric = higher, spatial = lower). This comports with my general "feeling" about these things: Reading and writing are easy and enjoyable; statistics is doable and tolerable; spatial math is difficult and unpleasant.
This has manifested itself in difficulties with software engineering, which is, after all, concerned with how best to build complicated, invisible structures. My in-the-major grades in school were mediocre at best (they were high outside of my major); my work performance is middling. The overall feeling of working in software engineering is that of wading through cerebral molasses, and at no time is this feeling more acute than when I'm working with other computer people: They just get it
, and I just don't get it
. With all due respect to grit, conscientiousness, growth mindset, etc., I often feel like I am simply running up against the limits of my mental machinery. All fine if it's worth the fight, but... 2 - Lack of Subject-Matter Interest
CS as an academic discipline is interesting enough
, but it's never "grabbed me" in the way that some other academic disciplines have. I've never found my mind wandering towards topics in CS in the same way that it often wanders towards topics in, e.g., biology, psychology, economics, literature. I would never read a book on software engineering or computer science for fun.
Why the hell did you major in it, then, you stupid, dumb idiot?
I wish I had a better answer, but it was some combination of peer pressure (the cool, ambitious kids were ALL majoring in CS in 2011 (that may still be the case now, IDK)) and a desire to be employable. 3 - Lack of Workplace Autonomy
A product manager tells you to build the thing, so you build the thing. You (sometimes) get to choose how you build the thing, but if you don't have any underlying interest in how the thing is built, the whole experience just feels like drudgery.
With all that in mind, I was able to build a pretty complicated paradigm that would take an entire post by itself to explain but basically boiled down to the following: Emphasize cognitive fit, subject-matter interest, workplace autonomy, and ability to do good, while trying as best you can to hold onto some of the positive features of software engineering (tons of stability, quite good pay, not-terrible working hours).
That got me down to four main possibilities. For the sake of simplifying the discussion, let's say that remaining a software engineer isn't an option. Here they are: Law (JD): On the one hand:
- Super high points for cognitive fit. Rules governing human behavior mediated entirely through the English language? Lots of reading and writing? Beautiful; give me more.
- The potential (if done in a certain way) to feel like you’re “fighting for the good guys.”
- For better or worse, I “vibe” with lawyers. Even the greedy ones tend to be "words people," because “money-driven” + “good with words, sucks at math” tends to equal “lawyer." I've never met, for example, another group of people who like crossword puzzles as much as I do. On the other hand:
- Nearly every lawyer I’ve talked to says it’s straight-up difficult
to get a job where you fight for the good guys and much easier to get a job where you’re fighting for the “neutral-at-best” guys.
- At the end of the day, I’m more interested in the law and less interested in being a practicing lawyer
, mostly because of the same autonomy problem in software engineering: A higher-up tells you to do the thing, so you do the thing. In an ideal world, you solve the autonomy problem by, say, working at a think tank or in academia. But I’ve gotten that beaten out of my head by the chorus of voices saying, “Don’t go to law school if you don’t want to practice.”
- Long hours and a culture of overwork lead to high stress. Varies between firms (and between firms and government), but a work-hard-play-hard culture seem to pervade the profession, and, to put it bluntly, most of the lawyers I know seem pretty fucking stressed.
- When I tell lawyers that I’m considering law school, many of them say, “Don’t do it.” People in other fields don’t say that when I tell them I’m considering their field.
Medicine (MD) or Research Medicine (MD/PhD): On the one hand:
- High level of interest in the subject material. I self-studied AP Bio back in the day by reading the textbook cover-to-cover. When I’m reading nonfiction for fun, there’s a pretty good chance it’s bio or medicine-related. To this day, I don’t really know why I didn’t study it in college. Network effects, probably.
- I could see myself being interested in practicing psychiatry, endocrinology, sleep medicine—any field where the emphasis is more “This strange concoction of chemicals makes you feel a certain way!” than it is “The machine that synthesizes urine broke down again.”
- I put “MD/PhD” because I find the idea of being a physician-scientist more appealing than one or the other. Being able to treat actual real people and then retreating to the lab to do solitary mind work really does sound like the best of both worlds. Either way, though, the process would start with a postbacc, so I guess technically I don’t have to decide yet.
- I did a thing where I downloaded the SSC dataset and looked at all the different careers, and doctors had the highest levels of life satisfaction out of anyone (for whom I could find a coherent career field in the spreadsheet). This held even when they were in school and residency (i.e. couldn’t be entirely explained by income (although it could, I suppose, be explained by “income or the expectation of future income”)). Two main ways I can think of to explain this: 1. Being a doctor is (relatively) fulfilling and makes people happy. 2. Becoming a doctor is so difficult that only (relatively) happy and well-balanced people are able to complete the process. This might sound naïve, but my honest bet is number one. In what other profession do you get paid SO MUCH MONEY to work so intimately with other people? So many high-enjoyability, low-pay professions (teaching, social work, etc.) are basically about taking a pay cuts so that you can work closely with other people. And in medicine you don’t have to take the pay cut. On the other hand:
- Maybe there are doctors reading this and thinking, “You naïve little twerp; do you know how hard you have to work and how good you have to be to do what you’re talking about doing? Genetic research? Neuroscience? Start honing your colonoscopy skills, bucko, because you’re going to have to pay off your loans just like the rest of us.”
- On a related note, I know a lot of lawyers but no doctors, so I have heavy doses of “realism” from the law side, but not the medicine side.
- Med school, from what I understand, is the most demanding of the professional schools. I honestly can’t say for sure that I’d be able to get through it.
- While I like reading popular
books about medicine, I don't really get off on academic papers about medicine. Maybe it’s just because I don’t know the lingo yet, or maybe it’s a warning sign that my interest in the field is going to turn out to be superficial.
- It would take a long time. Between postbacc, med school, (maybe) PhD, and residency, I’m looking at another decade before I make money again. Which is fine if I enjoy the process like I think I will. But if I don’t enjoy the process, it’s going to be a long ten years.
- Less reading and writing than I’d like, although that’s partially mitigated by doing an MD/PhD rather than just a PhD. I just really want a job where I get to read and write on the daily and the quality of the writing matters a good deal. “Just do that outside of your job!” Yeah, but in practice it’s hard.
Academia (PhD in Psychology): On the one hand:
- I like sitting down at a desk, reading about things, thinking about things, doing what it takes to get the answer to something that’s been nagging at me, and then writing about the process of finding that answer. The fundamental idea that I could get paid to do something like that is still mindblowing to me.
- Checks ALL of the boxes that bugged me about software engineering: You have a degree of autonomy, and you presumably get to work in a field that you’re interested in and that you’re a good cognitive fit for. Law stumbles a bit in the autonomy department. Medicine stumbles a bit in the cognitive fit department. This baby don’t stumble.
- To test my enthusiasm for academia, I read as many research papers as I could get my hands on from as many different fields as I could get my hands on. The result? I enjoy reading research papers. I could see myself writing them. This is a good thing, as I understand it, for a career in academia.
- In terms of which disciplines “won” (greatest level of interest), three were head and shoulders above the rest: Psych, soc, and econ. I talked to some econ PhDs, and I honestly don’t think I have the mathematical acumen for it. Between (cognitive) psych and soc, neither of them has great career prospects, so it’s a wash there, and I’m slightly more interested in psych, so I might as well just do psych. On the other hand:
- Due to mediocre undergraduate GPA and lack of research, I’ll probably have to do a masters or a postbacc first (time and $$)
- You gotta always be scrapping for grants and funding. Nobody likes scrapping.
- For better or worse, there is a distinct “good” outcome (tenure) that I might not achieve. I know that this is a really contentious topic, and I don’t mean to get anybody riled here, but yeah: I’m gonna be gunning really hard for the outcome that allows me to teach, do research, get paid well, and be difficult to fire. And I might not get it. And that’s extremely worrisome to me. “Making it” in academia, if you have the basic chops, is probably not as unlikely or fluky as, say, making it as an actor. But it’s still unlikely (depending on your field) and still fluky! You could get an advisor you end up not gelling with, and then you’re fucked. You could pursue a line of research that nobody really cares about, and then you’re fucked. (This is what people have told me, anyway). That’s all super scary to me, and it’s definitely an argument in favor of law or medicine, which have more of a “get the degree and collect your job” feel to them.
- Arduousness: Everyone says that it’s difficult and demanding and stressful and that you have to make sacrifices. I believe them. And, while I think I’m willing to make those sacrifices, it’s one matter to say
that you’re willing and another matter to actually not drop out of the program when you really feel like dropping out.
- Covid-19 is currently in the process of upending higher education. It might be fine! But the next few years are a bit of an event horizon: We don’t really know what things are going to look like on the other side. In other words, more risk.
Writing (MFA): On the one hand:
- A cool “wild card.”
- In the “You find out you have 5 years to live, what do you do?” thought experiment, I get an MFA and write a novel every time. Writing creatively is an activity that both hits a ton of neurons AND is somehow infused with meaning for me.
- It’d be super fun. On the other hand:
- Risk. Risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Follow your dreams, they say. But what if my dream was to be a professional basketball player in the NBA? Should I follow that dream? To put it another way: I know that I’m a good writer, but it seems like you enter the realm of “luck not optional” when you’re seriously trying to make a living by writing books. I ballparked my odds of eventual success (defined as “I get to write without doing anything else on the side”) at 25% if I get into a top MFA program (which I probably won't anyway). That number is already scarily low to me, and it may well be generous.
- My past is littered with the carcasses of unfinished novels. I’ve managed to finish short stories, and I’ve managed to finish screenplays. The novel is the white whale. I think I could do it from within the structure of an MFA program, but who knows?
- If I don’t “make it” straight out of the MFA program, I’ll have to go back to doing something pay the bills, and that something will probably be software engineering. And then I’m back where I started: Doing software engineering for money while writing on the side. If I end up just “Doing X and writing on the side,” then I would have been better off spending my grad school golden ticket getting up to speed in an X—law, medicine, psychology—that I enjoy more than software engineering. Where I'm at right now:
Trapped in a terrible cycle, pretty much. It goes like this:
I choose medicine, and a voice goes, “Really? Once again subjecting yourself to a career where reading and writing artfully isn’t really an integral part of the process? Doing ‘science,’ which we suspect you might not be great at doing? You should do law instead, where your mental machinery seems more suited to the process and the people seem more like ‘your people.’”
So I choose law, and a voice goes, “Really? Once again committing to a dynamic where you show up to the office and a superior throws a bunch of work at you and you do the work and go home without having pursued your own lines of inquiry or advanced human knowledge?” “I’ll be a professor,” I say. “No, you really won’t,” the voice says. “Think of all the unhappy lawyers who said they were going to be a professor or go into human rights or whatever. If you want to do research, you should get a PhD instead.”
So I choose a PhD (in psychology or sociology), and a voice goes, “Really? A non-econ social science given the state of academia right now? Do you really think there’s a nice tenure-track job waiting for you on the other side of this? If you’re gunning for the risky thing you might as well go all the way and do an MFA.”
So I choose an MFA, and a voice goes, “Really? And have to go back to software engineering in two years when you write a book and nobody gives a shit? Why subject yourself to that? If you’re going to write on the side, just be a doctor: It’s better than software engineering in terms of subject-matter interest and humanistic elements, but it offers similar stability and predictability.”
Then we’re back at doctor, and the cycle begins anew.
Since I listed pretty much every career option out there, I feel compelled to address some of the few that I left off my list. FIRE:
Just gut it out for ten more years and then retire! But the thing is, I like working—I like sitting at a desk, reading, writing, doing stuff—and I can think of nothing more enjoyable than embarking on one of the career paths that I listed above. So all I would get by FIRE-ing is more financial stability when I finally pursue one of them. WHICH AIN’T NOTHING. Believe me, I know. But I don’t think it’s worth the tradeoff of being miserable for another 10 years and starting round two close to age 40. Become a Product Manager (PM):
Okay, so you don’t like making pie. How about you supervise the people that make pie; wouldn’t that be more fun?
No, I just fucking hate pie.
***Further Wrinkles:***I applied to law school last cycle and got into a school just outside of the T14. Still on the waitlist for pretty much all of the T14 except HYS. I am what the kids call a “splitter” (high LSAT, low GPA), so I don’t have any expectations of getting into HYS, and if I do get into CCN it will probably be because Coronavirus fucks everything up and they have to let a bunch of people off the waitlist.
If I decide to not do law school this year (either because I decide to do something else or I decide that I can’t commit when I’m this unsure about things), I will be giving up something in-hand that I might not be able to get back. Which is scary. A Final Miscellaneous Thingy:
Since I haven’t actually DONE any of this stuff yet, it would be cool if there were some sort of way to dip my toes into two of the options and see which I like better (the proof, as they say, is in the pudding). Something like a premed postbacc program that would allow you to volunteer in a psych or neuroscience lab. I don’t know if that’s a thing, though. Or maybe it is, but by doing it you just make yourself a weak candidate for BOTH med school and psych PhD programs.
Okay. Phew. If you’re still here, first of all, thank you, and second of all, sorry. Thoughts? Feel free to be super discouraging, too. “I’m a doctor, and every vibe you’re putting out says, ‘flunks out of med school.’” That’s information! That’s helpful!
Thank you again. God bless you, SSC
Edit: Thank you all so much for your kind and thoughtful answers! Tapping out of the thread for a bit while I go eat and do work and that kinda stuff. Gonna look at and respond to all of these, though; I've just been kinda responding in a random order, but I'll get to 'em.
It honestly baffles me as to why the Kings have left him there. He's done such an awful job it's ridiculous. Here's a current outlook of the team:
Core De'Aaron Fox - 22 year old PG - Great asset, he is without a doubt the centerpiece of the team
Marvin Bagley - 21 year old PF/C - Looks kind of promising as a piece but he can't seem to stay healthy and get into a rhythm. I haven't given up on him becoming a decent player but obviously he's never gonna be as good as that guy that was drafted after him.
Thoughts: As a viewer, realistically these are what I'd consider the core pieces moving forward. These two are the only ones I'd bet on making a jump to becoming great players. This core to me seems kind of small, but there isn't much else to bet and build on. Divac has been unable to bring in any more young pieces to build around
Supporting cast Buddy Hield - 27 year old SG - Solid player but he kind of is what he is at this point. Super limited defensively but good offensive piece, his timeline doesn't seem to line up with what you want out of the team at the moment though
Richaun Holmes - 26 year old C - I actually really like the way this guy plays, he can do everything you want from a C and he's average to above average at it. Decent glue guy.
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 27 year old SG - To me he seems like your average 6th man. Nothing about his game really wows me and he's limited defensively as well. Also kind of old relative to the core of Fox and Bagley
Harry Giles - 21 year old C - Looks like he's gonna be a career bench guy, kind of like a DeWayne Dedmon.
Harrison Barnes - 28 year old F - Very middle of the pack player, in a wing driven league you want someone better as your SF. He's an average defender and scorer and doesn't really do much else. Advanced stats have never really liked him and he's pretty much my idea of a replacement level starter. He isn't gonna improve and doesn't match up with the core's timeline at the moment. Super questionable giving him a 4 year 85m contract when there didn't seem to be other bidders
Nemanja Bjelica - 32 year old PF - I mean he can shoot 🤷♂️
Thoughts: Besides Hield and Holmes, nobody here really has any value. They're all plateaued and average at best, clearly they're missing some pieces, but none of what they have even really matches up with the timeline of Fox. This supporting cast tells me that they've pretty much been making decisions with no direction in mind. They aren't good enough to be an old team, but they aren't young enough to be a team with potential. A reasonable GM would dump a lot of what they have for picks which is kind of a shitty situation. They aren't getting rid of that Barnes contract but Buddy Hield and Bogdanovic could net some nice pieces.
Picks Moving forward they have all of their first rounders, no additional first rounders, but some additional 2nd rounders. They haven't really collected that many picks and they are likely to be at the end of the lottery for a while.
So it's clear that at the moment they aren't in a good position, lets look at the highlights and lowlights of the transactions that got them here starting from 2016.
2016-17 Traded Marquese Chriss to the Phoenix Suns for rights to Bogdan Bogdanović, Skal Labissière, Georgios Papagiannis and a 2020 2nd round draft pick. 2020 2nd-rd pick is DET's pick
Now Chriss didn't turn out to be great right off of the bat(I blame Phoenix) but holy shit Papagiannis didn't last 2 years in Sacramento, he might've had the most predictable career I've seen from any lottery pick. Everyone knew that was an awful pick and it stayed awful. Skal also turned out bad. Now while Bogdanovic is ok, they traded an athletic player with good potential for a decent low floor, low ceiling role player, 2 pieces of crap, and a 2nd rounder.
Traded Marco Belinelli to the Charlotte Hornets for Malachi Richardson.
Now this wasn't that bad a trade at the time but it kind of shows the direction they wanted to go at this point. Why would they make that Chriss trade?
Traded Omri Casspi and DeMarcus Cousins to the New Orleans Pelicans for Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, Buddy Hield, a 2017 1st round draft pick and a 2017 2nd round draft pick (Frank Mason III was later selected). (2017 1st-rd pick is top-3 protected) (2017 2nd-rd pick going to SAC is PHI's pick)
I mean this trade wasn't that awful in hindsight tbh but maybe they could've gotten some better and younger talent for Cousins. If he seriously thought Buddy Hield was gonna be as good as Steph Curry he was out of his mind.
2017-18 Drafted De'Aaron Fox
Kind of his only great decision.
Traded 10th pick Zach Collins to the Portland Trail Blazers for 20th pick Harry Giles and 15th pick Justin Jackson.
Wow Justin Jackson sucks. Seems that Vlade has been valuing quantity over quality when it comes to the draft. Zach Collins, Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo were still on the board but he got more crap in Jackson with a bench guy in Giles. Even if he made the trade those picks were still bad. You had John Collins, Jarrett Allen, and OG Anunoby still on the board but he missed on them. I don't blame him for picking Giles cause he seemed like a solid pick at the time but his scouts couldn't do better than Jackson at 15?
Signed George Hill to a multi-year contract. 57m/3 years
Why sign a 31 year old to that much money when you're looking to go young? To mentor Fox. I mean this wan't so bad either, just 19m seems like a lot of money for a mentor. Feel like they could've gone with someone cheaper and worse that could've done just as good a job.
2018-19 As part of a 3-team trade, the Sacramento Kings traded George Hill for Iman Shumpert, $2.1M cash and a 2020 2nd round draft pick, Joe Johnson and $1.1M cash (SAC receives MIA 2020 second-round pick from CLE.)
He lasted one year in Sac and they trade him for a 2nd rounder and some useless pieces. Shumpert got them Alec Burks and a 2nd rounder as well but still kind of useless.
Drafted Marvin Bagley III in the 1st round (2nd pick) of the 2018 NBA Draft.
We know how that one turned out.
Traded Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph to the Dallas Mavericks for Harrison Barnes.
Not a bad trade until you consider the contract they gave him after.
2019-20 Fired Dave Joerger as Head Coach. Hired Luke Walton as Head Coach
Like there's nothing wrong with firing Joerger if there were locker room issues, just hiring Luke Walton without interviewing anyone else is super questionable. He did an awful job in every way possible over in LA and has so far been just as bad in Sac. He slowed the pace down, hired his buddies, and has done nothing to develop the young players.
Signed Cory Joseph as a free agent. 37m/3y Signed Trevor Ariza as a free agent. 25m/2y Signed Harrison Barnes as a free agent. 85m/4y Signed Dewayne Dedmon as a free agent. 40m/3y, 26m guaranteed
Just a bunch of bad contracts all around. He overpaid a bunch of mediocre veterans to do fuck all, two of which he had to dump. The Joseph and Barnes contracts are looking especially bad
Traded Dewayne Dedmon, a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick to the Atlanta Hawks for Alex Len and Jabari Parker.
Had to dump Dedmon because he was bad and unhappy.
Traded Trevor Ariza, Wenyen Gabriel and Caleb Swanigan to the Portland Trail Blazers for Kent Bazemore, Anthony Tolliver, a 2024 2nd round draft pick and a 2025 2nd round draft pick.
TL;DR Divac has made a ton of bad and lateral moves and after 4 years, they remain a team without direction. I'm unsure as to why he's still currently employed.
What’s up fellow fantasy connoisseurs, welcome to Week 6 of DFA’s matchup strategy guide (Part 1). We decided to try out a different format last week and would appreciate any and all feedback on it. Thanks for reading and make sure to check out Part 2 which is dropping tomorrow with the rest of the games.
Additionally, we dropped our first Fantasy Basketball article a couple days ago and will be continuing to produce content for NBA fantasy as we gear up for draft season. Check it out here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/ Glossary:
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS= Against the spread
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at London) Panthers ATS:
3-2-0 Buccaneers ATS:
2-3-0 Projected Point Totals:
Panthers 25.5 Buccaneers 23 This Game Kicks off at 9:30am ET. Don’t forget to set your lineups
Panthers Opp (TB) Pass DVOA:
#22 Opp (TB) Run DVOA:
#1 Injuries to Watch DEF (TB):
ILB Jack Cichy (OUT) Injuries to Watch OFF (CAR):
QB Cam Newton (OUT) RB Christian McCaffery (expected to play) G Trai Turner (Q) T Greg Little (Q) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Christian McCaffrey (22%) D.J. Moore (22%) Curtis Samuel (21%) Greg Olsen (17%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Christian McCaffrey (78%, 25, 8) Reggie Bonnafon (15%, 5, 0) Alex Armah (7%, 1, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown
The Week 6 slate provides a grudge match between two NFC South contenders, with the loser facing an uphill battle to win the division. Cam Newton
may have lost Carolina’s Week 2 TNF matchup against the Bucs with his inaccurate arm, but they still had a chance to win the game with CMC’s legs in the closing seconds, until he was stuffed at the goal line. Kyle Allen (upgrade)
has been used primarily as a game manager and taken a backseat to the CMC show, but with TB having the No. 1 run defense so far, they may be pushed to get the ball in the air this week to win. He can be considered a back-end QB1. Curtis Samuel (upgrade)
and D.J. Moore (upgrade)
were both victims of Newton’s struggles in the first meeting of the year, but Tampa’s secondary was ripe for exploitation - Newton just couldn’t get the ball to his speedy receivers, missing Samuel on several deep throws or getting the ball to him late, causing him to be tackled well short of where the play could have gone. TB is giving up the most FPPG to opposing wideouts and Carolina will begin to hit on the deep ball at some point, this week could very well be it. Consider both upside WR3’s. Greg Olsen
also draws an extremely favorable matchup, TB is giving up the second most FPPG to tight ends (12.5) and Olsen should be considered a top-6 tight end this week. RB Breakdown Christian McCaffery
continues to eat and is still in the mix for the overall RB1, even going against the best run defense in the league so far. His involvement in all facets of the game keep his floor high. He’s questionable but expected to play, owners should grab Reggie Bonnafun
in case CMC’s health goes sideways before kickoff.
Buccaneers Opp (CAR) Pass DVOA:
#4 Opp (CAR) Run DVOA:
#29 Injuries to Watch DEF (CAR):
DT Gerald McCoy (Q) DB/LB Christian Miller (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (TB):
WR Breshad Perriman (OUT) T Demar Dotson (OUT) G Alex Cappa (OUT) Key WCB matchups:
Mike Evans vs. James Bradberry (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Chris Godwin (26%) Mike Evans (23%) Dare Ogunbowale (10%) Breshad Perriman (9%) O.J. Howard (8%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Ronald Jones (34%, 11, 3) Peyton Barber (34%, 9, 1) Dare Ogunbowale (32%, 3, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown
The roller coaster ride of having Jameis Winston
on your fantasy squad continues to provide it’s peaks and valleys. There have been more peaks this season than years past and Winston is the #10 QB through 5 weeks. Even in a down week loss to the Saints last week, Winston put up a respectable 17.5 fantasy points and didn’t turn the ball over once. It’s possible he’s turned a corner, but it’s also just as likely that the next bust week is right around the corner… The emergence of Chris Godwin
has certainly helped the oft-scrutinized quarterback, and Godwin has become a true WR1 in fantasy - he’s sitting pretty as the overall WR1 through 5 weeks. Godwin’s ascent has brought fellow wideout Mike Evans
back to earth, as he only saw 3 targets last week in his duel with Saints stud CB Marcus Lattimore. Next on deck is a matchup with another elite CB in James Bradberry, a player that has thwarted Evans multiple times in his career, including their last matchup in Week 2. Consider Evans a feast-or-famine WR2 this week in the bad matchup. With field stretcher Breshad Perriman
not traveling to London, tight end O.J Howard
is in a position to gain a larger target share. It may not matter however, as the Panthers have the leagues fifth-best defense against tight ends, only giving up a stingy 4 FPPG to the position. Howard is impossible to trust at this point and should be considered a TE2. RB Breakdown Peyton Barber
and Ronald Jones
continue to kill each others value and neither should be treated as more than RB3’s. Going up against one of the league's worst run defenses is a prime position to get a boom week out of one of these players, but it’s impossible to know who will get the volume to produce. Dare Ogunbowale
isn’t seeing the field enough to be a fantasy asset, leave him on the wire. Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 17
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) Bengals ATS:
2-3-0 Ravens ATS:
1-4-0 Projected Team Totals:
Bengals 18.25 Ravens 29.75
Bengals Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA:
#23 Opp (BAL) Run DVOA:
#24 Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL):
CB Jimmy Smith (out) Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN):
OT Cordy Glenn (DNP, likely out), WR Alex Erickson, AJ Green (out), John Ross (out) Key WCB matchups:
Tyler Boyd vs. Marlon Humphrey (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Tyler Boyd (26%) John Ross (19%) Auden Tate (16%) Tyler Eifer (10%) Joe Mixon (8%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Joe Mixon (63%, 20, 1) Bernard (39%, 5, 3) QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bengals couldn’t snag their first win in the participation trophy bowl last week, but it’s ok because Zac Taylor believes his team is all “going in the same direction”. Um, ok i guess. Andy Dalton
did show signs of life in the 4th quarter, finishing with 262 yards and 2 TDs, but continues to be inconsistent and makes numerous mistakes every week. The Ravens have not been good on defense this year, and will be without CB Jimmy Smith again this week, but Dalton is no more than a bye week QB2 filler, albeit one in a projected shootout. Tyler Boyd
gets a tough matchup against Humphrey, but his volume keeps him in the WR2 mix, especially in PPR leagues. Auden Tate (upgrade)
should be the beneficiary with easier matchups, and he makes for a solid low end WR3 based on his usage the past few weeks. Tyler Eifert (drop)
couldn’t get it going even against Arizona last week, so if you haven’t yet done him the courtesy of putting him back on the wire, do so now for his dignity as much as yours. RB Breakdown
In their first drive last week the Bengals ran almost every play, and their continuous chunk plays should have led to a TD. But after that drive, they struggled to generate any running lanes, and steadily gave up on the run game as the Cardinals jumped out to a lead. Joe Mixon (downgrade PPR)
hit a season-high in rushing with 93 yards, but 60 of those were on the opening drive. He also turned his one target into a 16 yard catch. Mixon’s lack of involvement in the passing game is a big problem, as the Bengals will likely be in negative game flow for a majority of their remaining games. With the Bengals below-average offense not reaching the red zone very often, Mixon’s chances for rushing TD’s have decreased as well. If the Ravens get off to a good start, it’s easy to imagine Mixon finishing with around 75 rushing yards, no TD, and one catch for 10 yards again this week. That 8-10 point line is decent for an RB2, but makes for a risky start in PPR leagues, and isn’t the type of production owners that drafted Mixon early are counting on him for. Consider him a back end RB2 that needs to either get into the end zone or bust a big play in the passing game to have any chance at a ceiling game. Gio Bernard (stash)
continues to out target Mixon, and has run more routes overall this season as well. He has no standalone value, but in the event of a Mixon injury, would potentially be a more valuable play than Mixon has been so far because of his likely 3 down role. He’s a valuable handcuff to roster at this point.
Ravens Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA:
#31 Opp (CIN) Run DVOA:
#26 Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN):
LB Nick Vigil (limited) Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL):
WR Marquise Brown (DNP, Q), Mark Andrews (full practice, Q) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Mark Andrews (23%) Marquise Brown (23%) Willie Snead (10%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Mark Ingram (65%, 21, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown
The Ravens offense has cooled a bit in recent weeks, but they have still put up 23+ points in every game. Lamar Jackson (upgrade)
has been a top-5 QB based mostly on his rushing ability, and he’s put in enough in the passing game to make him an every week set and forget. He’s no Pat Mahomes, but he’s also no Tim Tebow either. Mark Andrews (upgrade)
is tied for the highest target share on the team, and is an easy top-6 TE at an extremely thin position. The Cincy defense is 7th stingiest against TE’s (NFL.com) but Andrews will be a target hog this week, especially if the Ravens are missing their top WR. Marquise Brown (downgrade PPR)
is questionable to play after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday, so his status is worth monitoring closely heading into the weekend. If he does play, he makes for a solid WR3 because of his high target volume and big play ability, but may not be needed much if the Ravens pound the run at home. If he is forced to miss the game, Willie Snead
would enter the streaming radar as he has shown a solid connection with Jackson so far. Even as the top WR, however, he’d be no more than a WR4 with some decent PPR upside. RB Breakdown
The Ravens haven’t been quite as run heavy as some predicted, but Mark Ingram (upgrade)
has gotten just enough volume to be a top-10 RB so far this season. Going up against a defense that has given up the second most FPPG to opposing RB’s, and as a huge home favorite, Ingram makes for a top 5 RB play in Week 6. He’s a chalk play in DFS, and might be in a week-winning position on Sunday. ** Gus Edwards** and ** Justice Hill** are no more than handcuffs for worried Ingram owners at this point. Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Bengals 17
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns Seahawks ATS:
2-3-0 ** Browns ATS:** 2-3-0 Projected Team Totals:
Seahawks 24 Browns 22.5
Seahawks Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA:
#11 Opp (CLE) Run DVOA:
#23 Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE):
Greedy Williams (limited), Denzel Ward (limited) Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA):
OL DJ Fluker (DNP), OL Duane Brown (DNP) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Tyler Lockett (23%) Will Dissly (17%) DK Metcalf (17%) Chris Carson (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Chris Carson (84%, 28, 2) Rashaad Penny (16%, 8, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown
The Seahawks have managed to grind out a number of wins this year, and last week’s TNF matchup against the Rams was no exception. Russell Wilson
basically willed Seattle to victory, and he put on a clinic of efficient passing. He has yet to throw an INT this year, and is making an underwhelming cast of weapons look like a top-10 offense. Even against a solid pass defense that may get their starting CBs back this week, Wilson has been too good this year to consider benching. This does profile as one of the tougher matchups he’s faced this year, so expectations should be tempered slightly. Tyler Lockett (downgrade)
is unlikely to face consistent coverage from either of the Browns young stud CBs (assuming they play) but his lack of volume of late (4 targets each of the last two weeks) make it harder to project a big week for him. The Browns have been much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, so expect the overall passing volume to be lowered slightly. Lockett has really only had one big game all year, and it was against NO when the Seahawks were down big early. Assuming the Browns struggle again to put up points offensively, this doesn’t initially project as a game that should feature negative game script. DK Metcalf (downgrade)
is the more likely WR to face some kind of shadow coverage on the outside, and combining that with his smaller target share, he’s more of a WR4 that you can only start in hopes of one long TD play. Will Dissly (upgrade)
has been one of the surprises of the season with his strong play, and with the Browns giving up the 8th most FPPG to opposing TEs, he remains firmly planted in the top 8 of the position this week. RB Breakdown
Despite some early fumbling issues, Chris Carson (upgrade)
has been given a big workload in all but one game this year, and that was in a matchup that featured negative game flow right from the start (Week 3 vs. NO). Carson got 28 touches last week, and caught his only target for the go-ahead TD late in the game. The Browns are fresh off getting absolutely obliterated in the run game by the Niners and now go up against a Seattle team that runs the ball almost as much. Carson is a lock for 20+ touches, and has a great shot at a TD. He’s on the RB1/2 borderline, and just needs a slight uptick in targets to break into the top-12 ROS. Rashaad Penny (stash)
isn’t garnering enough touches for standalone value, but remains an extremely valuable handcuff.
Browns Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA:
#19 Opp (SEA) Run DVOA:
#16 Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA):
None Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE):
None Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Odell Beckham Jr. (26%) Jarvis Landry (24%) Nick Chubb (12%) Antonio Callaway (12%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Nick Chubb (84%, 17, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown
There’s no sugarcoating just how bad Baker Mayfield (upgrade)
has been as a fantasy QB so far this year. He’s barely in the top-30 at the position through 5 weeks, and there’s just something wrong with this offense. This feels like a good game for Mayfield to put up a better line, and he may actually be available on the waiver wire this week. He’s nowhere near back to QB1 status, but going up against a burnable Seahawks secondary in a game the Browns could face some negative game script, Mayfield may surprise this week. We project him as a high end QB2, worth starting for owners in a bye week pinch. The biggest factor for Mayfield’s value is tied to getting Odell Beckham Jr. (upgrade)
going for more than 2 catches. There are major concerns about OBJ’s fit in this offense with the lack of an offensive line meaning fewer downfield shots, but I think he gets going this week against Seattle. Jarvis Landry
has only had one big week all year, but his floor in PPR remains usable because of his solid target share and low aDOT leading to high percentage looks. He’s a low upside WR3, and deserves to be bumped to WR4 range in standard leagues. His weekly 5-50 projection is usable, but not extremely exciting. Antonio Callaway (downgrade)
didn’t move the needle much in his return, and isn’t a must own at this point because of the lack of downfield throwing in this offense. RB Breakdown
One week after steamrolling the Ravens defense on the ground, Nick Chubb
wasn’t able to get going in a blowout loss to the Niners last week. The volume is still there, and he’s a threat to take it to the house on any given play, so he needs to be in all lineups this week. A bigger role in the passing game would be a boon to his value, so hopefully Freddie Kitchens can find creative ways to get perhaps his most talented player the ball on Sunday. Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Browns 21
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) Texans ATS:
3-2-0 Chiefs ATS:
3-2-0 Projected Team Totals:
Texans 25.25 Chiefs 29.75
Texans Opp (KC) Pass DVOA:
#8 Opp (KC) Run DVOA:
#30 Injuries to Watch DEF (KC):
None Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU):
WR Kenny Still (limited) Key WCB matchups:
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Breshaud Breeland (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
DeAndre Hopkins (28%) Will Fuller (24%) Keke Coutee (11%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Carlos Hyde (64%, 21, 1) Duke Johnson (40%, 10, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week’s fantasy bonanza against the Falcons featured a massive game from Deshaun Watson (upgrade)
. KC has actually been stingy against QBs at home this year, but there’s no reason to view Watson as anything other than a top-3 QB play in the week’s highest projected scoring game. DeAndre Hopkins
was unable to get in on the TD fun last week, but still finished with a respectable 88 yards on seven catches. He’s simply too talented to be held down for long, and has dusted more talented CBs than Breeland with ease over the years. He remains a top 10 WR play, and this is an ideal week for him to bust back onto the scene. Will Fuller (upgrade)
went absolutely nuclear last week, and probably sent owners who benched him into therapy. There is no sure thing with a boom or bust player like Fuller, but in a shootout with Hopkins drawing likely shadow coverage, Fuller is set up beautifully to back up last week’s performance. He has to be in all lineups. Keke Coutee
showed a little more last week, but is still only a stash at this point in case of injury to Hopkins or Fuller, not someone you can plug into your lineup. RB Breakdown
This is one of the more frustrating backfields from a fantasy perspective, as either Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard)
or Duke Johnson
would be borderline RB1s if given a full workload, but neither is getting the volume necessary for big lines. Hyde is the better bet for a rushing TD, and is likely to get a solid volume of carries in the first half while the Texans try to keep Mahomes and company off the field. That plan could fall apart quickly, but Hyde’s floor is decent in standard leagues. DJ has drawn only 7 targets total over the past 3 weeks, and just isn’t getting the volume to be a worthwhile play. There is hope he’ll be used more in negative game script in a high scoring game, but it would take a major leap of faith to start him. Consider Hyde an RB2/3, with a bump in standard leagues, and Duke an RB4 with upside for a big play or two.
Chiefs Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA:
#15 Opp (HOU) Run DVOA:
#6 Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU):
None Injuries to Watch OFF (KC):
OL Eric Fisher (DNP), OL Andrew Wylie (DNP), WR Sammy Watkins (DNP), WR Tyreek Hill (limited), Patrick Mahomes (limited) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Sammy Watkins (24%) Travis Kelce (22%) Demarcus Robinson (14%) Damien Williams (13%) Mecole Hardman (12%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Damien Williams (56%, 12, 4) Lesean McCoy (22%, 2, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown
There was some concern that Patrick Mahomes
would be limited this week after injuring his ankle last week, but he has been clear that the issue won’t stop him from being at his best on Sunday. He’s an easy top-3 QB. Tyreek Hill
may have an opportunity to return this week after logging two limited practices, so keep a close eye on his status heading into the weekend. Houston held up better than the stats showed against Matt Ryan last week, but would be absolutely no match for one of the better QB-WR duos in the league, assuming health. Sammy Watkins
was a DNP on Thursday with a hammy issue, and his status looks to be a legitimate concern. If Hill is unable to return and Watkins can’t play, Byron Pringle
would get in the mix in 3 wide sets next to Demarcus Robinson
and Mecole Hardman
. All three would be in play as WR3’s in this matchup if Hill and Watkins are out, but Robinson is probably the best bet if Hill or Watkins do play, considering his target share. Travis Kelce (upgrade)
will need to step up in Watkins can’t play, so look for him to again have a big role and put up top-3 TE numbers. RB Breakdown
One of the messier backfields so far this year surprisingly got a lot more clear when Damien Williams
returned to the lineup last week. He immediately returned to starter status, receiving 12 touches to Lesean McCoy’s
2 touches, and Darrel Williams’
0 touches. Because Damien is used so frequently in the passing game, his floor should be that of a decent RB2, especially in PPR leagues. His ceiling in a projected shootout like this is top-10, so he should be in all lineups barring a late injury setback. McCoy could get a few more touches this week, but likely needs to be benched, and Darrel Williams becomes just a handcuff for Damien owners. Damien may just be able to pay off for patient owners who were able to survive his early season injury. Score Prediction: Texans 35, Chiefs 34
New Orleans Saints (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars Saints ATS:
3-2-0 Jaguars ATS:
3-2-0 Projected Team Totals:
Saints 22.25 Jaguars 21.25
Saints Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA:
#18 Opp (JAX) Run DVOA:
#32 Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX):
CB Jalen Ramsey (Q) CB D.J. Hayden (Q) S Ronnie Harrison (Q) DE Lerentee McCray (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (NO):
QB Drew Brees (OUT) WR Tre’quan Smith (OUT) RB Alvin Kamara (Q, expected to play) Key WCB matchups:
Michael Thomas vs. Jalen Ramsey (Q-Back) (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Michael Thomas (32%) Alvin Kamara (18%) Ted Ginn (14%) Jared Cook (14%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Alvin Kamara (67%, 22, 7) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 2) QB/WTE Breakdown Teddy ‘Checkdown’ Bridgewater
exploded last week against a poor Tampa secondary, throwing for 314 yards with 4 scores. Even with the breakout week, he’s no more than a 2QB league play or a one week streamer in good matchups. Michael Thomas (upgrade)
has not slowed down in the absence of Drew Brees
and it appears he’s a matchup proof WR1 moving forward, just keep in mind there may be some bumps along the way with Bridgewater at the controls. It appears that CB Jalen Ramsey is truly questionable to play (Jag’s owner Shahid Khan has said he’ll play, grain of salt), and his absence would be a huge upgrade to Thomas’ outlook. Tre’Quan Smith (ankle)
was unable to return with an injury last week and Ted Ginn
found his way into the endzone with a long score, but none of the peripheral pass catchers should be considered. Jared Cook
finally showed up, posting 4-41-1 last week. He can be considered a low-end TE1 in a mediocre matchup, just remember his floor is scary low. RB Breakdown Alvin Kamara
has popped up on the injury report late in the week which is never a good sign. He’s fully expected to play, but owners should grab Latavius Murray
as an insurance policy. The matchup for the Saints running game is as optimal as they come, Jacksonville ranks dead last in Run DVOA and is giving up 23.1 FPPG to running backs. Kamara is in the mix for the overall RB1 this week.
Jaguars Opp (NO) Pass DVOA:
#20 Opp (NO) Run DVOA:
#17 Injuries to Watch DEF (NO):
DE Trey Hendrickson (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX):
TE James O’Shaughnessy (OUT for year) Key WCB matchups:
D.J. Chark vs. Marshon Lattimore (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
D.J. Chark (21%) Dede Westbrook (21%) Leonard Fournette (17%) Chris Conley (13%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Leonard Fournette (93%, 27, 7) Ryquell Armstead (7%, 2, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown
Rookie mistakes cost Gardner Minshew (upgrade)
last week as he lost 3 fumbles, but he still gave his team a chance to win in a back and forth battle with the Panthers. Minshew has been as consistent as they come at the QB position, he has averaged 17.8 FPPG and has yet to score less than 16 fantasy points since taking over as the starter. If Minshew puts up a big week against a solid NO defense, he will likely be impossible to keep out of lineups. Consider him a back-end QB1 against the Saints middle of the road defense - they are giving up 23.7 FPPG to quarterbacks, third worst. D.J. Chark
continued his impressive breakout, showing out with 8-164-2 last week. He can’t be denied a spot in your lineup due to upside, even with a date against Marshon Lattimore who just held Mike Evans to a goose egg, consider him a WR2 this week. Another good week and he may be pushing into the WR1 ranks. If Lattimore does indeed shadow Chark, then Dede Westbrook
would draw the better matchup, going against SCB P.J. Williams. Consider him an upside WR3. Chris Conley
isn’t seeing enough volume to be a consistent option in fantasy and is best left on the wire. The Saints secondary has been exploitable this season, giving up 28.6 FPPG to wideouts. Continue to fade Jacksonville’s tight ends, but keep an eye on Geoff Swaim. He may assume some volume with fellow tight end James O’Shaughnessy announced out for the year with an ACL tear. RB Breakdown Leonard Fournette
has received the second most touches (115) so far this season, only behind superhuman Christian McCaffery (136). The matchup on paper isn’t ideal, NO is only giving up 14 FPPG to running backs. However, Fournette’s volume provides him a safe floor and he should be in all lineups. Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Saints 21
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3) Eagles ATS:
2-3-0 Vikings ATS:
3-2-0 Projected Team Totals:
Eagles 20.5 Vikings 23.5
Eagles Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA:
#9 Opp (MIN) Run DVOA:
#2 Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN):
LB Ben Gedeon (DNP) CB Mackensie Alexander (limited) Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI):
WR Desean Jackson (DNP) Key WCB matchups:
Alshon Jeffery vs. Xavier Rhodes (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Zach Ertz (25%) Alshon Jeffery (25%) Desean Jackson (23%) Nelson Agholor (18%) Miles Sanders (8%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Jordan Howard (43%, 13, 4) Miles Sanders (43%, 13, 5) QB/WTE Breakdown
The most valuable player to the Eagles last week was wearing a Jets jersey, and his name is Luke Falk. He allowed the Eagles D to turn two mistakes into TDs, and was unable to put anything together on offense. This meant that none of the Philly weapons on offense needed to do much to win, so Carson Wentz
ended with a slightly disappointing day. His matchup this week is significantly tougher against a defense that has given up the 8th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and ranks as a top 10 defense in both pass and run DVOA. He is still a solid QB1 option. Alshon Jeffery (upgrade standard)
is back to full health and this week goes up against Xavier Rhodes, who has been burned by Jeffery in past matchups (Rotoworld). This isn’t a shy away matchup for either Wentz or Jeffery, and because the Eagles have a strong run defense, the Vikings strategy to control the game on the ground may not be as successful. This feels like a game where Jeffery hits the end zone. Zach Ertz
remains a reliable weekly top-3 TE due to target share and his connection with Wentz is in fine form. Nelson Agholor (drop)
likely only has one week left of receiving a decent target share with DJax possibly returning next week, so he can be dropped for someone with better ROS outlook. He has the potential to sneak into the endzone this week, but his floor is that of a 0 catch 0 yard performance. Wentz is a back end QB1 this week, and Jeffery is right on the edge of a top-20 ranking at WR. RB Breakdown
The Eagles have employed an RBBC so far this year, and in Week 5 found the split between Jordan Howard (downgrade PPR)
and Miles Sanders
to be almost exactly equal. Howard is getting the more valuable redzone carries, so his TD upside put his at the back end of the RB2 rankings. Sanders hasn’t been extremely efficient with his carries, and isn’t being used in the passing game as much as some had projected, but his four catches in Week 5 were encouraging. Coach Doug Pederson has said the Eagles will continue to ride the hot hand, and that appears to be Howard at the moment. Both can be used in the flex spot, but Howard is a safer option because of his tendency to end up in the end zone the past weeks (5 in last 3 games).
Vikings Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA:
#10 Opp (PHI) Run DVOA:
#4 Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI):
CB Orlando Scandrick (DNP, illness) Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN):
OL Josh Kline (DNP) Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Adam Thielen (24%) Dalvin Cook (19%) Stefon Diggs (18%) Kyle Rudolph (6%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Dalvin Cook (66%, 27, 6) Alexander Mattison (23%, 7, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown
The Vikings passing game finally got up and running a bit last week, and Kirk Cousins (upgrade)
finished with his best game of the season. On paper, this looks like a matchup to exploit through the air, as the Eagles are much more vulnerable there than on the ground, but it remains to be seen if OC Kevin Stefanski will adjust his gameplan at all. Cousins can be looked at in 2QB leagues, but still isn’t sniffing QB1 status until we see a consistent uptick in passing volume. He makes for an intriguing streamer this week, however. Adam Thielen
has been Cousins’ preferred target the past few weeks, and has gotten his target share up close to 25%. While he still isn’t producing like the WR1 he was drafted to be, this week again sets up well for him to put up solid numbers. He should be in all lineups and can be counted on for WR2 numbers. Stefon Diggs (upgrade)
is a slightly more risky proposition. He currently has a smaller target share than his starting RB, and has only one game over 50 yards receiving. While it’s tough to bench a player of Diggs’ talent, owners are likely extremely frustrated with his production so far. This feels like a get right matchup against the Eagles burnable secondary so we recommend you start him universally. Keep the faith for this week. Kyle Rudolph (drop)
currently has a lower target share than his backup Irv Smith
which tells the story of his fantasy irrelevance. If you’ve been holding this long, it’s time to let go. RB Breakdown
Even in an extremely tough matchup this week, Dalvin Cook
remains a top-3 RB play in all formats. He has shown his floor even in a game the Vikings are losing (Week 4 vs. CHI) to be 15+ points, so he is a clear auto-start. There may be some efficiency struggles on the ground due to Philly’s stout front seven, but he will bust at least one big play, and his involvement in the passing game keeps him elite even in the event the Eagles get out to a big lead. Alexander Mattison (stash)
remains one of the league’s best handcuffs, so he should be universally owned. If you own Mattison but not Cook, consider seeing what you can pry from the Cook owner over the next few weeks. Score Prediction: Eagles 21, Vikings 17
Washington Redskins (-4) at Miami Dolphins Redskins ATS:
1-4-0 Dolphins ATS:
0-4-0 Projected Team Totals:
Redskins 18.75 Dolphins 22.25
Redskins Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA:
#32 Opp (MIA) Run DVOA:
#31 Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA):
CB Xavien Howard (P) CB Johnson Bademosi (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (WSH):
TE Jordan Reed (OUT) TE Vernon Davis (Q) G Wes Martin (Q) LT Donald Penn (Q) Key WCB matchups:
Terry McLaurin vs. Xavien Howard (Rotoworld) Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Terry McLaurin (21%) Chris Thompson (20%) Paul Richardson (15%) Trey Quinn (16%) Vernon Davis (12%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5:
Chris Thompson (54%, 9, 7) Adrian Peterson (27%, 7, 0) Wendall Smallwood (19%, 6, 0) QB/WTE Breakdown
Interim coach Bill Callahan has yet to name a starter at quarterback, but all indications point to Case Keenum
being under center this week. He’s not an option in fantasy, but his return is great news for Terry McLaurin
who seems to be recovered from a hamstring injury. The bad news is that ‘F1’ McLaurin will be facing off against the Dolphins best player, CB Xavien Howard. Nevertheless, McLaurin has earned must start status as a WR2 and he’ll be facing the worst defense in the NFL. Fire him up. Paul Richardson
with a healthy McLaurin is too much of a question mark to see lineups even in the dream matchup. Vernon Davis
is still making his way back from a concussion and it’s unclear if he will play. Jeremy Sprinkle
and Jerome Cunningham
will take over again if he is absent, but neither are recommended plays. RB Breakdown
Owners probably scooped up Adrian Peterson (upgrade)
after the news broke that interim coach Callahan thinks that not running the ball enough is Washington's main issue (it’s not). He’s got a dream matchup on deck and should be considered a RB2/3, his floor remains scary low but it seems more likely than not that he finds pay dirt in Week 6’s poop fest. Chris Thompson (upgrade PPR)
continues to produce in PPR, putting up a consistent 11.7 FPPG. Thompson can be considered a back-end RB2 with an upgrade in PPR formats. This game seems like it could go either way in terms of being high scoring or low scoring, so all options are a bit risky.
Dolphins Opp (WSH) Pass DVOA:
#28 Opp (WSH) Run DVOA:
#18 Injuries to Watch DEF (WSH):
LB Josh Harvey-Clemons (Q) Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA):
None Key WCB matchups:
None Relevant Target Share %’s (season):
Preston Williams (22%) DeVante Parker (18%) Kenyan Drake (15%) Jakeem Grant (14%) RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4:
Kenyan Drake (57%, 15, 6) Mark Walton (27%, 8, 2) Kalen Ballage (16%, 2, 1) QB/WTE Breakdown
Miami from an offense standpoint, and just an overall football standpoint, have been awful. Remember that when Vegas favors a home team by 3 points, that’s essentially saying that both teams are completely even. Josh Rosen
isn’t a fantasy option. Preston Williams
and Devante Parker
can be considered this week going against Washington's dreadful secondary, but really you probably have a better option at receiver. Even in the best matchup of the year, all Miami players are an extreme risk. Put your money on teams that you know can move the ball. Albert Wilson
is an intriguing DFS play against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most PPR per game to slow WRs this season (per Sports Info Solutions and Rotoworld). Don’t play a Miami tight end, you know better. RB Breakdown
The running back rotation for Miami is an absolute mess and no running back has produced enough to see fantasy lineups. After a mistake filled start to the season, it appears that Kalen Ballage
has fallen out of favor for rookie Mark Walton
. If there were a surefire week to start Kenyan Drake
, it seems like it would be this week. However, the Dolphins have been so putrid it seems like more risk than it’s worth. Fade the Dolphins backfield where possible. Score Prediction: Redskins 17, Dolphins 14
Compare live NBA Odds, Lines and Spreads. Up to date betting odds of the top sportsbooks including money lines, point spreads, totals and futures on SBR. Rot. Team Spread Money Line Total Points Team Points; Sunday, Oct 11, 2020 - NBA Basketball Game 07:30 PM: 711: Los Angeles Lakers Other notes: The Pelicans received the third-highest share of the betting handed to win the Western Conference before missing the playoffs.; All Western Conference teams received at least 0.08% of the handle – the Timberwolves received the lowest share. The Golden State Warriors, who finished the season last in the NBA at 15-50 received 0.60% of the handle to win the conference. The L.A. Clippers (+325) opened the 2019-20 season as the betting favorites to win the NBA championship. You can see the current lines at our NBA futures page. This table demonstrates the record of the last 100 NBA computer picks. It can be a bit confusing right away, so let us explain for you: $ of Units Opening/Closing: This number is the total profit (or loss) based on a bettor placing $100 on each of the last 100 NBA picks made by the computer on both the opening and closing lines.
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