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It is time to be honest about Russell Westbrook

I've been following the NBA since 2006, so I have seen Russell evolve through his entire career.
Let's talk about the good first:
The guy is HYPER AGGRESSIVE, his mentality is attack attack attack and it makes him extremely fun to watch when his offence is on point.
He is still blazing quick even on the tail end of his prime (he was even able to blow by Dort a couple times)
For the majority of his career he had a lethal pull up midrange game, although he has stopped using it as of late. Perhaps due to the rockets system.
His finishing ability is elite around the rim, he knows how to use angles to get his shot off even when draped with defenders.
Counting stats he is a marvel, averaging a triple double for three seasons is no small feat. Career averages 23.2/7.1/8.3
He is also pretty durable, having played 80+ games 7 times.
He also has an MVP, 2 scoring title, 9x all-star, 8x all-nba.
His talent is undeniable. (This regular season with HOU might be his best season as a player)
Playing him in 2k is fun as hell.
Now for the bad:
He is a strong regular season player but in the playoffs he becomes way too predictable and therefore easy to stop. When you know he is going to drive and kick every time its your best bet to play the passing lanes.
Russell has a bad habit of shooting 3's too much. He's a career 30% shooter and it shows (especially in the playoffs). I wonder how many OKC fans have pulled out hairs watching him brick 3 after 3.
His OKC playoff record after KD left is 0-4, all first round exits and only winning 4 playoff games over that stretch. (To make matters worse OKC with Chris Paul out performed expectations and were 1 possession away from knocking HOU out)
Unlike Chris Paul he does not make his teammates better than the sum of their parts.
His aggressiveness cuts negatively too, he tends to get tunnel vision especially when the game is on the line, and it really hurts his team (see the 2019 series against Utah).
The final point is you never know which westbrook will show up in the playoffs. He will have games where he absolutely goes off and then he will have games where he shoots himself and his team out of the game. Consistently inconsistent when it matters the most.
My conclusion is: Russell is a first ballot Hall of Fame talent, but as he currently is I do not see him winning a championship. He is an electrifying player but also a frustrating one. A regular season monster but a playoff disappointment.
What do you guys think about Russell?
submitted by mass_a_peal to nbadiscussion [link] [comments]

What can Denver do to Beat the Lakers?

What can Denver do to Beat the Lakers?
This is about an 8 minute read with a TLDR at the bottom.
According to Jacob Golstein, the Lakers are overwhelmingly the favorite for this series, boasting a 74% chance to defeat the Nuggets.

https://preview.redd.it/q7lw20g5dhn51.png?width=1004&format=png&auto=webp&s=b60e6e18968bfed04867177e0aa839014ef8d396
However, if these playoffs have taught us anything about the Nuggets, it is that they don’t lie down and die like most teams. For a team with such a young core, they have surprisingly battled through many challenges (having played in 4 game 7’s the past two seasons) that should have them more than prepared to handle the Lakers.
Season Series
Los Angeles took the season series against Denver 3 games to 1 this year. However, every single Lakers win was within 10 points (with the largest one being a 105–96 win all the way back in December). This includes an overtime game in February where they needed a combined 65 points from Anthony Davis and Lebron James plus a James triple double to take them down. On the flip side, the single Nuggets win was a complete blowout, where they won by 24 points, 128–104. However, it is important to mention that Lebron James did not play in that Lakers loss. However, if the past has told us anything, relying on the regular season to predict the playoffs is not the most accurate measuring tool.
Lakers Key To Success: The Bigs
So far in these playoffs, no one has been able to stop Nikola Jokic. In the 14 games he has played in these playoffs, Jokic is averaging 26.1 points per game, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on a scorching 52% from the field and 46% from 3. Perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert was unable to slow Jokic down, nor was either of the Clippers centers (Montrezl Harrell or Ivica Zubac).
Enter the Lakers bigs, Anthony Davis, Javale McGee, and Dwight Howard. In the 4 games they played against the Nuggets, the Lakers limited Jokic to a much tamer 16.25 points per game. If the Lakers want to increase their odds of winning this series, they’re going to need the bigs to continue to defend Jokic like they have been all year.
Javale McGee locking up Jokic
In the most recent time these two teams matched up, the Lakers started with McGee on Jokic. Here McGee does a good job to fight around the screen by going under, almost daring Jokic to shot the jumper. If McGee went over the screen, then it would’ve been an easier drive for Jokic. McGee forces Jokic to put the ball down and dribble after he does not bite on the pump fake and then contests very well staying vertical (and not jumping) and forcing the miss. If the Lakers bigs can continue to do this, they stand a real chance of winning this series. However, it will be difficult for the Lakers bigs, because of just how talented Jokic is as a player.
Nuggets Key to Success: Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray has the potential to be a top 3 point guard in the NBA, and these playoffs have proven it. In these playoffs, he is averaging 26 points per game with an effective field goal percentage of 59%. For context, the highest effective field goal percentage boasted by a point guard in the regular season was 56% (By Damian Lillard and Patty Mills). Some highlights of Murray’s playoff run this year include 50 point games in games 4 and 6 against Utah, with a 42 point game sandwiched in between. On top of that, he scored 40 points in the Game 7 clincher against the Clippers. He could singlehandedly win Denver a couple of games in this series by himself if the Lakers don’t keep him in check.
Jamal Murray torching Utah from behind the arc
Jamal Murray dicing up Utah defense
Jamal Murray likes to use the high pick and roll to get himself going downhill fast. On top of this, setting the pick higher means the big has to come out higher to contain the ball handler. In the top clip, Gobert refuses to come up to the three point line so Murray just rises up and hits the open shot. In the bottom clip, Ingles does a better job of stepping up so Murray takes advantage of this by hesitating and getting to the middle for the layup. This high screen and roll is what may cause the Lakers bigs even more trouble. Against the Rockets, the Lakers were forced to bench Javale McGee and Dwight Howard for their inability to handle the small ball Rockets, and the same could be the case for them in this series if they get caught out on screens too often.
However, there are ways around this issue. For one, the Lakers can attempt to “pre-switch” the pick and roll. This requires the defense to switch the man who is guarding the ball screener off before the ball screen is set.
Example (creds BBall Breakdown)
In this example, the Thunder want to avoid having Carmelo Anthony be involved in the pick and roll, so they switch Steven Adams onto Luc Mbah a Moute before he sets the screen on Corey Brewer, to keep Anthony away from the action. The Lakers can utilize with potentially Anthony Davis or Lebron James if they feel like their other bigs are not doing a good enough job, as these two are more mobile while still providing a relatively big body for Murray to attack. However, these playoffs have shown that no matter who is in front of him, Jamal Murray will attack and more likely than not, score on whoever is in front of him.
Pressure Either Makes Diamonds or Breaks Pipes
With being such overwhelming favorites, and having one of the most talked about players in NBA history — Lebron James, all the pressure will be on the Lakers to win this series. They will have had just over a week rest between series while the Nuggets will only receive about half the amount. On top of this, they have played 4 fewer games in these playoffs than the Nuggets. All the signs are pointing towards a Lakers win this series, but to just write the Nuggets off would be silly — and it’s probably what the Nuggets want.
If Denver has proved anything in these playoffs, it’s that they do not conform to the expectations put on them. This was quickly apparent against Utah and against the Clippers from the moment they went down 3 games to 1. On top of this, without any real pressure on them in this series, it would not be too surprising to see the Nuggets thrive without expectations. No pressure could allow the Nuggets to play with more freedom, especially from the very beginning of the series while nerves are still high. Therefore it would not be surprising the see the Nuggets take Game 1 of this series off the back of that alone, as the Lakers have a habit of dropping the first game (as they did to both Portland and Houston).
However, the Lakers are led by Lebron James, who has proven countless times in his career that he handles pressure better than almost every other player the NBA has ever seen. As previously mentioned, he is 9–1 in conference finals, and in 59 conference finals games, he has averaged 29.6 points per game, 8.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists while shooting 51% from the field (per Statmuse). On top of this, the Lakers have one of the best leaders in the NBA to go along with James; Rajon Rondo. Rondo in his 19 conference finals games he’s played in, has averaged 15.1 points, 8.7 assists and 5 rebounds on 43% shooting (per Statmust). Even at their advanced ages (35 and 34 years old respectively), expect them to be at their best in this series. Rondo quickly proved against Houston that he is up to the task of guarding elite perimeter threats, and could be a real thorn in the side of Murray.
Rondo full court defense on Harden
Very few players dare to pick up Harden at full court, let alone pressure him into being sloppy with his dribble. Being such a savvy veteran, Rondo understands Harden’s tendencies and thus is able to get right up into his face before cold stealing it from him and finishing the easy layup. Expect to see the same type of defensive energy on Jamal Murray if they ever get matched up.
Speaking of matchups, something interesting that could occur is Lebron being forced to guard Jokic and vice versa. The Nuggets for small stretches (primarily when Davis is sitting) may be content with having Jokic guard Lebron and sag off him a bit, almost daring him to shoot. However, Lebron is shooting a respectable 37% from three in the playoffs on a healthy 6.2 attempts per game, so sagging may not be the most viable option. The Nuggets will most likely give Paul Milsap the first crack at Lebron James, considering they have matched up before in the Conference Finals when Milsap was on the Atlanta Hawks and Lebron on the Cleveland Cavaliers. However, it will be interesting to keep an eye out on if the Nuggets change their matchups throughout the game to try and get the Lakers off their rhythm.
The Verdict
It would be silly to assume that either team would have an easy time in this series. Denver has proved that even though they may look like the inferior team on paper, they have the heart and grit to hold their own against the NBA’s elite. Los Angeles meanwhile, have backed up any expectations put on them so far, and has shown an impressive ability to switch up tactics on the fly to give them an edge over their competition.
At the end of the day though, the lack of experience on Denver’s side may be their ultimate downfall. Only 1 player on their current roster has played in a conference final, and that was Paul Milsap (who promptly got swept by Lebron James and the Cavaliers in 4 games). Though that is not to say the Nuggets will not make this an entertaining and competitive series, with almost no chance this ends in less than 6 games. On top of this, betting against Lebron James has made a lot of analysts look silly in the past, and it seems like the safe bet to think Lebron and the Lakers can pull this out. However, it is entirely possible the Nuggets manage to pull off the upset defeat the Lakers but for now, the final verdict is:
Lakers in 6
TLDR
-Javale McGee, Dwight Howard is the X-factor for the lakers as they have to slow down Jokic
-Rondo is another X-factor as he is one of the only Lakers guards who can slow down Jamal Murray
-Jamal Murray has to continue his form from the Clippers and Utah series to take control of this series
-Lebron James and Rajon Rondo have a track record of stepping up in the conference finals
-Denver has much less playoff experience compared to the Lakers, but they always perform in elimination games
Sorry, this may not be what some of you expected. This is the subreddit for the Denver Nuggets, but I still think I should be fair and try not to change my analysis based on the subreddit. Please let me know what you guys think in the comment section.
Thank you for reading.
submitted by TheTipOff to denvernuggets [link] [comments]

How the hell is one supposed to choose a career? Related: Please help me choose a career.

Hello, SSC. I am using a throwaway.
This is a beast of a post. A few thoughts related to its size:
  1. Sorry
  2. Please don't read the whole thing; it's skimmable.
  3. TL;DR – lawyer, doctor, psych researcher, or (jokingly, unless…) novelist?
To make a long story short, I'm an unhappy software engineer (unhappy with my career, not with life in general), and I committed about a year ago to making a change. Since that time, I've vacillated wildly in my thinking on the various career options available (never able to fully commit), and at this point it's causing me a ton of anxiety: I've gotta choose something, but there just doesn't seem to be a clear answer. My family and partner are running out of patience, and I feel the same way: It's time to get a move on, already.
"Getting a move on" is super fucking hard, though (not to mention terrifying, given the stakes). How are you supposed to compare, on the one hand, cognitive fit (i.e. being good at your job) with, on the other hand, likelihood of being able to pursue your own lines of inquiry or expression (i.e. not feeling like a cog)? Where does money fit into all of this?
The sheer number of different paradigms for career choice seems to be evidence that nobody else really has a clear idea either:
"Do what you love."
"Do what you like the most out of medicine, law, finance, and engineering."
"Work sucks: Make money and retire."
"Working for someone else sucks: Start a business or be your own boss."
Then there are the more complicated ones, like Ikagi, or the Waitbutwhy octopus, or 80,000 Hours' five-star system.
Every different paradigm comes up with a different answer, and the same paradigm often comes up with different answers depending on things that seem like they should not be able to shift paradigms, like what mood I happen to be in at the moment.
I do have some concrete things to work with, namely that I think I've been able to pinpoint why I don't like software engineering. Three main reasons:
1 - Lack of Cognitive Fit:
On pretty much every sort of standardized test thrown at me, there will invariably be a huge imbalance between subscores (verbal = higher, math = lower), with further cleavage between the mathematics subscores (numeric = higher, spatial = lower). This comports with my general "feeling" about these things: Reading and writing are easy and enjoyable; statistics is doable and tolerable; spatial math is difficult and unpleasant.
This has manifested itself in difficulties with software engineering, which is, after all, concerned with how best to build complicated, invisible structures. My in-the-major grades in school were mediocre at best (they were high outside of my major); my work performance is middling. The overall feeling of working in software engineering is that of wading through cerebral molasses, and at no time is this feeling more acute than when I'm working with other computer people: They just get it, and I just don't get it. With all due respect to grit, conscientiousness, growth mindset, etc., I often feel like I am simply running up against the limits of my mental machinery. All fine if it's worth the fight, but...
2 - Lack of Subject-Matter Interest
CS as an academic discipline is interesting enough, but it's never "grabbed me" in the way that some other academic disciplines have. I've never found my mind wandering towards topics in CS in the same way that it often wanders towards topics in, e.g., biology, psychology, economics, literature. I would never read a book on software engineering or computer science for fun.
Why the hell did you major in it, then, you stupid, dumb idiot?
I wish I had a better answer, but it was some combination of peer pressure (the cool, ambitious kids were ALL majoring in CS in 2011 (that may still be the case now, IDK)) and a desire to be employable.
3 - Lack of Workplace Autonomy
A product manager tells you to build the thing, so you build the thing. You (sometimes) get to choose how you build the thing, but if you don't have any underlying interest in how the thing is built, the whole experience just feels like drudgery.

_________

With all that in mind, I was able to build a pretty complicated paradigm that would take an entire post by itself to explain but basically boiled down to the following: Emphasize cognitive fit, subject-matter interest, workplace autonomy, and ability to do good, while trying as best you can to hold onto some of the positive features of software engineering (tons of stability, quite good pay, not-terrible working hours).
That got me down to four main possibilities. For the sake of simplifying the discussion, let's say that remaining a software engineer isn't an option. Here they are:
Law (JD):
On the one hand:
- Super high points for cognitive fit. Rules governing human behavior mediated entirely through the English language? Lots of reading and writing? Beautiful; give me more.
- The potential (if done in a certain way) to feel like you’re “fighting for the good guys.”
- For better or worse, I “vibe” with lawyers. Even the greedy ones tend to be "words people," because “money-driven” + “good with words, sucks at math” tends to equal “lawyer." I've never met, for example, another group of people who like crossword puzzles as much as I do.
On the other hand:
- Nearly every lawyer I’ve talked to says it’s straight-up difficult to get a job where you fight for the good guys and much easier to get a job where you’re fighting for the “neutral-at-best” guys.
- At the end of the day, I’m more interested in the law and less interested in being a practicing lawyer, mostly because of the same autonomy problem in software engineering: A higher-up tells you to do the thing, so you do the thing. In an ideal world, you solve the autonomy problem by, say, working at a think tank or in academia. But I’ve gotten that beaten out of my head by the chorus of voices saying, “Don’t go to law school if you don’t want to practice.”
- Long hours and a culture of overwork lead to high stress. Varies between firms (and between firms and government), but a work-hard-play-hard culture seem to pervade the profession, and, to put it bluntly, most of the lawyers I know seem pretty fucking stressed.
- When I tell lawyers that I’m considering law school, many of them say, “Don’t do it.” People in other fields don’t say that when I tell them I’m considering their field.

Medicine (MD) or Research Medicine (MD/PhD):
On the one hand:
- High level of interest in the subject material. I self-studied AP Bio back in the day by reading the textbook cover-to-cover. When I’m reading nonfiction for fun, there’s a pretty good chance it’s bio or medicine-related. To this day, I don’t really know why I didn’t study it in college. Network effects, probably.
- I could see myself being interested in practicing psychiatry, endocrinology, sleep medicine—any field where the emphasis is more “This strange concoction of chemicals makes you feel a certain way!” than it is “The machine that synthesizes urine broke down again.”
- I put “MD/PhD” because I find the idea of being a physician-scientist more appealing than one or the other. Being able to treat actual real people and then retreating to the lab to do solitary mind work really does sound like the best of both worlds. Either way, though, the process would start with a postbacc, so I guess technically I don’t have to decide yet.
- I did a thing where I downloaded the SSC dataset and looked at all the different careers, and doctors had the highest levels of life satisfaction out of anyone (for whom I could find a coherent career field in the spreadsheet). This held even when they were in school and residency (i.e. couldn’t be entirely explained by income (although it could, I suppose, be explained by “income or the expectation of future income”)). Two main ways I can think of to explain this: 1. Being a doctor is (relatively) fulfilling and makes people happy. 2. Becoming a doctor is so difficult that only (relatively) happy and well-balanced people are able to complete the process. This might sound naïve, but my honest bet is number one. In what other profession do you get paid SO MUCH MONEY to work so intimately with other people? So many high-enjoyability, low-pay professions (teaching, social work, etc.) are basically about taking a pay cuts so that you can work closely with other people. And in medicine you don’t have to take the pay cut.
On the other hand:
- Maybe there are doctors reading this and thinking, “You naïve little twerp; do you know how hard you have to work and how good you have to be to do what you’re talking about doing? Genetic research? Neuroscience? Start honing your colonoscopy skills, bucko, because you’re going to have to pay off your loans just like the rest of us.”
- On a related note, I know a lot of lawyers but no doctors, so I have heavy doses of “realism” from the law side, but not the medicine side.
- Med school, from what I understand, is the most demanding of the professional schools. I honestly can’t say for sure that I’d be able to get through it.
- While I like reading popular books about medicine, I don't really get off on academic papers about medicine. Maybe it’s just because I don’t know the lingo yet, or maybe it’s a warning sign that my interest in the field is going to turn out to be superficial.
- It would take a long time. Between postbacc, med school, (maybe) PhD, and residency, I’m looking at another decade before I make money again. Which is fine if I enjoy the process like I think I will. But if I don’t enjoy the process, it’s going to be a long ten years.
- Less reading and writing than I’d like, although that’s partially mitigated by doing an MD/PhD rather than just a PhD. I just really want a job where I get to read and write on the daily and the quality of the writing matters a good deal. “Just do that outside of your job!” Yeah, but in practice it’s hard.

Academia (PhD in Psychology):
On the one hand:
- I like sitting down at a desk, reading about things, thinking about things, doing what it takes to get the answer to something that’s been nagging at me, and then writing about the process of finding that answer. The fundamental idea that I could get paid to do something like that is still mindblowing to me.
- Checks ALL of the boxes that bugged me about software engineering: You have a degree of autonomy, and you presumably get to work in a field that you’re interested in and that you’re a good cognitive fit for. Law stumbles a bit in the autonomy department. Medicine stumbles a bit in the cognitive fit department. This baby don’t stumble.
- To test my enthusiasm for academia, I read as many research papers as I could get my hands on from as many different fields as I could get my hands on. The result? I enjoy reading research papers. I could see myself writing them. This is a good thing, as I understand it, for a career in academia.
- In terms of which disciplines “won” (greatest level of interest), three were head and shoulders above the rest: Psych, soc, and econ. I talked to some econ PhDs, and I honestly don’t think I have the mathematical acumen for it. Between (cognitive) psych and soc, neither of them has great career prospects, so it’s a wash there, and I’m slightly more interested in psych, so I might as well just do psych.
On the other hand:
- Due to mediocre undergraduate GPA and lack of research, I’ll probably have to do a masters or a postbacc first (time and $$)
- You gotta always be scrapping for grants and funding. Nobody likes scrapping.
- For better or worse, there is a distinct “good” outcome (tenure) that I might not achieve. I know that this is a really contentious topic, and I don’t mean to get anybody riled here, but yeah: I’m gonna be gunning really hard for the outcome that allows me to teach, do research, get paid well, and be difficult to fire. And I might not get it. And that’s extremely worrisome to me. “Making it” in academia, if you have the basic chops, is probably not as unlikely or fluky as, say, making it as an actor. But it’s still unlikely (depending on your field) and still fluky! You could get an advisor you end up not gelling with, and then you’re fucked. You could pursue a line of research that nobody really cares about, and then you’re fucked. (This is what people have told me, anyway). That’s all super scary to me, and it’s definitely an argument in favor of law or medicine, which have more of a “get the degree and collect your job” feel to them.
- Arduousness: Everyone says that it’s difficult and demanding and stressful and that you have to make sacrifices. I believe them. And, while I think I’m willing to make those sacrifices, it’s one matter to say that you’re willing and another matter to actually not drop out of the program when you really feel like dropping out.
- Covid-19 is currently in the process of upending higher education. It might be fine! But the next few years are a bit of an event horizon: We don’t really know what things are going to look like on the other side. In other words, more risk.

Writing (MFA):
On the one hand:
- A cool “wild card.”
- In the “You find out you have 5 years to live, what do you do?” thought experiment, I get an MFA and write a novel every time. Writing creatively is an activity that both hits a ton of neurons AND is somehow infused with meaning for me.
- It’d be super fun.
On the other hand:
- Risk. Risk, risk, risk, risk, risk. Follow your dreams, they say. But what if my dream was to be a professional basketball player in the NBA? Should I follow that dream? To put it another way: I know that I’m a good writer, but it seems like you enter the realm of “luck not optional” when you’re seriously trying to make a living by writing books. I ballparked my odds of eventual success (defined as “I get to write without doing anything else on the side”) at 25% if I get into a top MFA program (which I probably won't anyway). That number is already scarily low to me, and it may well be generous.
- My past is littered with the carcasses of unfinished novels. I’ve managed to finish short stories, and I’ve managed to finish screenplays. The novel is the white whale. I think I could do it from within the structure of an MFA program, but who knows?
- If I don’t “make it” straight out of the MFA program, I’ll have to go back to doing something pay the bills, and that something will probably be software engineering. And then I’m back where I started: Doing software engineering for money while writing on the side. If I end up just “Doing X and writing on the side,” then I would have been better off spending my grad school golden ticket getting up to speed in an X—law, medicine, psychology—that I enjoy more than software engineering.
Where I'm at right now:
Trapped in a terrible cycle, pretty much. It goes like this:
I choose medicine, and a voice goes, “Really? Once again subjecting yourself to a career where reading and writing artfully isn’t really an integral part of the process? Doing ‘science,’ which we suspect you might not be great at doing? You should do law instead, where your mental machinery seems more suited to the process and the people seem more like ‘your people.’”
So I choose law, and a voice goes, “Really? Once again committing to a dynamic where you show up to the office and a superior throws a bunch of work at you and you do the work and go home without having pursued your own lines of inquiry or advanced human knowledge?” “I’ll be a professor,” I say. “No, you really won’t,” the voice says. “Think of all the unhappy lawyers who said they were going to be a professor or go into human rights or whatever. If you want to do research, you should get a PhD instead.”
So I choose a PhD (in psychology or sociology), and a voice goes, “Really? A non-econ social science given the state of academia right now? Do you really think there’s a nice tenure-track job waiting for you on the other side of this? If you’re gunning for the risky thing you might as well go all the way and do an MFA.”
So I choose an MFA, and a voice goes, “Really? And have to go back to software engineering in two years when you write a book and nobody gives a shit? Why subject yourself to that? If you’re going to write on the side, just be a doctor: It’s better than software engineering in terms of subject-matter interest and humanistic elements, but it offers similar stability and predictability.”
Then we’re back at doctor, and the cycle begins anew.
Since I listed pretty much every career option out there, I feel compelled to address some of the few that I left off my list.
FIRE: Just gut it out for ten more years and then retire! But the thing is, I like working—I like sitting at a desk, reading, writing, doing stuff—and I can think of nothing more enjoyable than embarking on one of the career paths that I listed above. So all I would get by FIRE-ing is more financial stability when I finally pursue one of them. WHICH AIN’T NOTHING. Believe me, I know. But I don’t think it’s worth the tradeoff of being miserable for another 10 years and starting round two close to age 40.
Become a Product Manager (PM): Okay, so you don’t like making pie. How about you supervise the people that make pie; wouldn’t that be more fun?
No, I just fucking hate pie.
***Further Wrinkles:***I applied to law school last cycle and got into a school just outside of the T14. Still on the waitlist for pretty much all of the T14 except HYS. I am what the kids call a “splitter” (high LSAT, low GPA), so I don’t have any expectations of getting into HYS, and if I do get into CCN it will probably be because Coronavirus fucks everything up and they have to let a bunch of people off the waitlist.
If I decide to not do law school this year (either because I decide to do something else or I decide that I can’t commit when I’m this unsure about things), I will be giving up something in-hand that I might not be able to get back. Which is scary.
A Final Miscellaneous Thingy:
Since I haven’t actually DONE any of this stuff yet, it would be cool if there were some sort of way to dip my toes into two of the options and see which I like better (the proof, as they say, is in the pudding). Something like a premed postbacc program that would allow you to volunteer in a psych or neuroscience lab. I don’t know if that’s a thing, though. Or maybe it is, but by doing it you just make yourself a weak candidate for BOTH med school and psych PhD programs.
Okay. Phew. If you’re still here, first of all, thank you, and second of all, sorry. Thoughts? Feel free to be super discouraging, too. “I’m a doctor, and every vibe you’re putting out says, ‘flunks out of med school.’” That’s information! That’s helpful!
Thank you again. God bless you, SSC.
Edit: Thank you all so much for your kind and thoughtful answers! Tapping out of the thread for a bit while I go eat and do work and that kinda stuff. Gonna look at and respond to all of these, though; I've just been kinda responding in a random order, but I'll get to 'em.
submitted by throe_aweigh_ to slatestarcodex [link] [comments]

Vlade Divac might be the worst active executive in the NBA.

It honestly baffles me as to why the Kings have left him there. He's done such an awful job it's ridiculous. Here's a current outlook of the team:

Core

De'Aaron Fox - 22 year old PG - Great asset, he is without a doubt the centerpiece of the team
Marvin Bagley - 21 year old PF/C - Looks kind of promising as a piece but he can't seem to stay healthy and get into a rhythm. I haven't given up on him becoming a decent player but obviously he's never gonna be as good as that guy that was drafted after him.
Thoughts: As a viewer, realistically these are what I'd consider the core pieces moving forward. These two are the only ones I'd bet on making a jump to becoming great players. This core to me seems kind of small, but there isn't much else to bet and build on. Divac has been unable to bring in any more young pieces to build around

Supporting cast

Buddy Hield - 27 year old SG - Solid player but he kind of is what he is at this point. Super limited defensively but good offensive piece, his timeline doesn't seem to line up with what you want out of the team at the moment though
Richaun Holmes - 26 year old C - I actually really like the way this guy plays, he can do everything you want from a C and he's average to above average at it. Decent glue guy.
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 27 year old SG - To me he seems like your average 6th man. Nothing about his game really wows me and he's limited defensively as well. Also kind of old relative to the core of Fox and Bagley
Harry Giles - 21 year old C - Looks like he's gonna be a career bench guy, kind of like a DeWayne Dedmon.
Harrison Barnes - 28 year old F - Very middle of the pack player, in a wing driven league you want someone better as your SF. He's an average defender and scorer and doesn't really do much else. Advanced stats have never really liked him and he's pretty much my idea of a replacement level starter. He isn't gonna improve and doesn't match up with the core's timeline at the moment. Super questionable giving him a 4 year 85m contract when there didn't seem to be other bidders
Nemanja Bjelica - 32 year old PF - I mean he can shoot 🤷‍♂️
Thoughts: Besides Hield and Holmes, nobody here really has any value. They're all plateaued and average at best, clearly they're missing some pieces, but none of what they have even really matches up with the timeline of Fox. This supporting cast tells me that they've pretty much been making decisions with no direction in mind. They aren't good enough to be an old team, but they aren't young enough to be a team with potential. A reasonable GM would dump a lot of what they have for picks which is kind of a shitty situation. They aren't getting rid of that Barnes contract but Buddy Hield and Bogdanovic could net some nice pieces.

Picks

Moving forward they have all of their first rounders, no additional first rounders, but some additional 2nd rounders. They haven't really collected that many picks and they are likely to be at the end of the lottery for a while.
So it's clear that at the moment they aren't in a good position, lets look at the highlights and lowlights of the transactions that got them here starting from 2016.

Transactions

2016-17

Traded Marquese Chriss to the Phoenix Suns for rights to Bogdan Bogdanović, Skal Labissière, Georgios Papagiannis and a 2020 2nd round draft pick. 2020 2nd-rd pick is DET's pick
Now Chriss didn't turn out to be great right off of the bat(I blame Phoenix) but holy shit Papagiannis didn't last 2 years in Sacramento, he might've had the most predictable career I've seen from any lottery pick. Everyone knew that was an awful pick and it stayed awful. Skal also turned out bad. Now while Bogdanovic is ok, they traded an athletic player with good potential for a decent low floor, low ceiling role player, 2 pieces of crap, and a 2nd rounder.
Traded Marco Belinelli to the Charlotte Hornets for Malachi Richardson.
Now this wasn't that bad a trade at the time but it kind of shows the direction they wanted to go at this point. Why would they make that Chriss trade?
Traded Omri Casspi and DeMarcus Cousins to the New Orleans Pelicans for Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, Buddy Hield, a 2017 1st round draft pick and a 2017 2nd round draft pick (Frank Mason III was later selected). (2017 1st-rd pick is top-3 protected) (2017 2nd-rd pick going to SAC is PHI's pick)
I mean this trade wasn't that awful in hindsight tbh but maybe they could've gotten some better and younger talent for Cousins. If he seriously thought Buddy Hield was gonna be as good as Steph Curry he was out of his mind.

2017-18

Drafted De'Aaron Fox
Kind of his only great decision.
Traded 10th pick Zach Collins to the Portland Trail Blazers for 20th pick Harry Giles and 15th pick Justin Jackson.
Wow Justin Jackson sucks. Seems that Vlade has been valuing quantity over quality when it comes to the draft. Zach Collins, Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo were still on the board but he got more crap in Jackson with a bench guy in Giles. Even if he made the trade those picks were still bad. You had John Collins, Jarrett Allen, and OG Anunoby still on the board but he missed on them. I don't blame him for picking Giles cause he seemed like a solid pick at the time but his scouts couldn't do better than Jackson at 15?
Signed George Hill to a multi-year contract. 57m/3 years
Why sign a 31 year old to that much money when you're looking to go young? To mentor Fox. I mean this wan't so bad either, just 19m seems like a lot of money for a mentor. Feel like they could've gone with someone cheaper and worse that could've done just as good a job.

2018-19

As part of a 3-team trade, the Sacramento Kings traded George Hill for Iman Shumpert, $2.1M cash and a 2020 2nd round draft pick, Joe Johnson and $1.1M cash (SAC receives MIA 2020 second-round pick from CLE.)
He lasted one year in Sac and they trade him for a 2nd rounder and some useless pieces. Shumpert got them Alec Burks and a 2nd rounder as well but still kind of useless.
Drafted Marvin Bagley III in the 1st round (2nd pick) of the 2018 NBA Draft.
We know how that one turned out.
Traded Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph to the Dallas Mavericks for Harrison Barnes.
Not a bad trade until you consider the contract they gave him after.

2019-20

Fired Dave Joerger as Head Coach. Hired Luke Walton as Head Coach
Like there's nothing wrong with firing Joerger if there were locker room issues, just hiring Luke Walton without interviewing anyone else is super questionable. He did an awful job in every way possible over in LA and has so far been just as bad in Sac. He slowed the pace down, hired his buddies, and has done nothing to develop the young players.
Signed Cory Joseph as a free agent. 37m/3y Signed Trevor Ariza as a free agent. 25m/2y Signed Harrison Barnes as a free agent. 85m/4y Signed Dewayne Dedmon as a free agent. 40m/3y, 26m guaranteed
Just a bunch of bad contracts all around. He overpaid a bunch of mediocre veterans to do fuck all, two of which he had to dump. The Joseph and Barnes contracts are looking especially bad
Traded Dewayne Dedmon, a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick to the Atlanta Hawks for Alex Len and Jabari Parker.
Had to dump Dedmon because he was bad and unhappy.
Traded Trevor Ariza, Wenyen Gabriel and Caleb Swanigan to the Portland Trail Blazers for Kent Bazemore, Anthony Tolliver, a 2024 2nd round draft pick and a 2025 2nd round draft pick.
Lateral move.
TL;DR Divac has made a ton of bad and lateral moves and after 4 years, they remain a team without direction. I'm unsure as to why he's still currently employed.
submitted by DirtyDanoTho to nba [link] [comments]

(OC Megapost) the 2020 NBA Draft, Free Agency, and How the Warriors Can Play Their Cards to Set up Another Decade of Contention

(OC Megapost) the 2020 NBA Draft, Free Agency, and How the Warriors Can Play Their Cards to Set up Another Decade of Contention
Media members and the NBA subreddit will tell you our dynasty is over, however if you take a closer look, this franchise has one of the brightest futures in the NBA. I’ve had some free time on my hands so I decided to do some investigation on what moves Bob Myers & Co might make to keep us in contention. After all, they have been vocal about keeping our championship window open as long as possible.

This post is long so feel free to jump around. I broke it up into three sections with a TLDR at the end
  1. Current Roster Construction
  2. How we should use our 2020 draft pick
  3. Free Agency and the TPE

First, Roster Construction: Looking Ahead


G: Stephen Curry- Age 31 (Almost 32)
Curry is our franchise linchpin and until proven otherwise, the best point guard in the league. With that being said….......fuck…….... Steph is getting older. Injuries, wear and tear, and playoff minutes will all be factors in his eventual decline. Curry is under contract for two more years and the front office will probably extend him with another max deal.
The Future: There is a good chance these next two seasons are Curry’s last as a superstar, although his skill set will translate well into his mid 30’s. I’m praying we get 3-4 more years of MVP level Steph. We probably see regular season load management for the rest of his career.

G: Klay Thompson- Age 30
  • Max Contract Through 2024 (will be 34)
  • Bird Rights
  • 2020 Minutes Prediction: 75 games @ 32 mpg
Klay is locked up under contract and in the middle/late stage of his prime. He is in the sweet spot of mental & physical development and we should see peak Klay for at least a couple more seasons. ACL tears are almost always 100% recoverable with current medical technology, so I’m not worried about a production decrease until the 2022-23 season.
The Future: Standard Klay for the next 2-3 years.
F: Andrew Wiggins, Age 24 (almost 25)
  • Max Contract Through 2023 (will be 28)
  • Bird Rights
  • 78 Games @ 34 mpg
Andrew has been a hot and controversial topic since he was traded last week. Take a look at our official trade thread.Emotions have now settled, and it looks like he can be a contributing factor on a championship team. He is durable, unselfish, our best athlete, a great on-ball defender, and a much more natural scorer compared to someone like Barnes. He’s also just entering his “prime”. Most NBA players have their best seasons age 26-31 so there is potential (the magic word!) we see Wiggins improve here.
There are, however, negatives to Andrew’s game. He is not a great facilitator (although he is getting better), PnR ball handler, iso player, leader, and lacks the “dog” of a superstar #1 pick. I wouldn’t call him malaise, but he is an emotionless player. Luckily for us we will play to his strengths and through three games we can already see how he fits our system: cutting, hard drives, moving the ball, smart threes, and running the floor. Andrew is taking less shots & scoring more efficiently than he did with the Wolves, and I see this continuing as the third option.
Luckily we have leadership and emotional players so Wiggins can just come out and ball. Check out Athletic Alchemy's video on winning culture and accountability
The Future: Being incredibly conservative, I have him averaging 18/5/3 shooting 48/36/75 next year with good defense. This production is almost twice what Barnes averaged in the Bay and would solidify Andrew as a top 7-10 SF. His ceiling however is higher, and star potential is still there.

F: Draymond Green, Age 29 (almost 30)
  • Contract Through 2024, Player Option (will be 34)
  • Bird Rights
  • 70 Games @ 33mpg
Draymond might be the worst scorer in the league, but our fanbase know he does everything else at a good-to-elite level. He’s our general, our defensive anchor, and the father figure of this G-league roster.
Offensively he orchestrates the team, handles the ball, and is our best facilitator. Defensively he's top a help/PnR defender, and when he locks-in he is still elite on-ball. With Dlo gone he can run more of the offense and won't get as frustrated on the other end. Physically we aren’t in 2015 anymore, but Dray can still turn on the burners and push it when he needs to. He is the vocal leader of this team, a great motivator, and keeps everyone accountable while being one of the winning-est players of this generation.
The Future: With a rejuvenated and well rested Green I think we see at least another 2 seasons of high level production. I’m curious to see how his declining athleticism impacts his game, although I don’t think we notice a big difference for a few years.

C: Kevon Looney, Age 24
  • Contract Through 2022, Player Option (will be 26)
  • Bird Rights
  • 68 games @ 14 minutes a night
Looney was a key piece to our finals roster last year and has a role when this team is healthy. This year's production has been a wash with injuries and I hope he can get his mojo back for next season.
At his best Looney is a small center who has good lateral quickness and can switch 1-5 competently. He has decent offensive IQ and can finish around the rim. Hopefully he can continue to develop and be a rotation piece in the future. He’s only 24 years old.
Next Year: We probably see Looney with similar effectiveness to the 2018-2019 season, playing in match-up dependent stretches.

PG/SG: Jordan Poole, Age 20 (Rookie)
  • Contract Through 2023, Team Option (will be 23)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 games @ 12 minutes a night
Jordan has been one of our most polarizing players. He almost played himself out of the league in December putting up 10 points on 29/26/84 efficiency. Thankfully his production has picked up since moving to point guard averaging 11/3/3 on 42/27/100 in February. He has a crafty handle and flashes of vision with a decent jump shot. His ceiling is a scoring 6th man, we just need to see continued improvement into the future.
Next Year: Poole shares the backup PG spot with Bowman and is inserted based on who’s hot.

PF/SF: Eric Paschall, Age 23 (Rookie)
  • Contract through 2022, Team Option (will be 25)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 Games @ 24 minutes a night
Eric is a strong, physically imposing forward who has good bounce for his build. He had an incredible start in November and looked like a starting caliber player, but his production has since dropped off. Teams are learning his tendencies as our best scorer and have exploited him accordingly. Hopefully he has a strong end of the year to get a head start on improving this off-season. He needs to work on his jump shot, ball handling, defense, and overall IQ if he wants heavy minutes on our contending roster. Once again, the potential is there.
Next Year: I think Paschall improves and logs time at the 3 and 4 next season. Spacing will be much better and Eric will be able to play to his strengths on the offensive end. If he develops an average jumper + defense he is a league starter.

SG/SF: Damion Lee, Age 27
  • Contract through 2022 (will be 29)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 games at 12 minutes a night
I don't have too much to say about Damion Lee. He is a decent scoreshooter who has had a good February. He moves without the ball and has bought into our system. He hustles and usually applies good effort. That being said he lacks the bball iq to be a good player on either end. He is who he is as a player.
Next Year: In a dry forward free agency/draft class Lee will still get playing time. Some nights he will make shots and others he will get played off the floor.

C: Marquese Chriss, Age 22
  • Contract through 2021 (will be 23)
  • No Bird Rights :’(
  • 80 Games at 26 minutes a night
I fucking love Marquese Chriss. He is an emotional player with good finishing, size, and a great vertical. He has shown some playmaking ability and can move the ball within the flow of the offense. Chriss is already a more cerebral player over centers like Javale, Dwight, and Capela. February has been a great month for him: he's averaging 15/8/1 with 2.5 bpg in 27 minutes. He’s also 22 years old.
Chriss can be a starter in this league if he improves in a few areas. Defensively his PnR game needs work: he has moments where he loses focus and can end up in the wrong spot, although his shot blocking has been excellent. Offensively he needs to polish his game and develop his jumper. If he shows even a 10% improvement overall we should be ecstatic. The Warriors will end up having to use our MLE in 2021 to keep him, although he might be offered more by other teams.
The Future: I see Chriss continuing to improve and being a solid piece, if not a starter, on this roster.

PG: Ky Bowman, Age 22
  • Contract Through 2022 (will be 24)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 Games at 12 minutes a night
Bowman is a hustle player and our only facilitator other than Draymond. He has good chemistry with Chriss and is our “best” ball handler. He’s not someone you can count on to give you a bucket which lowers his value on this talent-dry team. He might have more success next year when we are healthy and he can focus on passing and defense. Speaking of defense, he’s good on that end.
Next Year: Ky will probably be competing with Poole next year for backup PG minutes on a game-by-game basis.

G-League + 10 Day’ers
Alen Smailagic
  • Probably the only player who is on the team next year. He is a pure project, but has shown signs he might make it in the league.
JTA
  • A good defender and that's about it. We might keep him,


The 2020 NBA Draft


The Warriors have two high draft picks, our own in 2020, and a top three protected in 2021 from Minnesota.

Why We Should Keep our (High) Draft Picks
  • Our core is heading into next year at 32 (Steph), 30 (Klay), 30 (Draymond), and 25 (Wiggins). Bringing in young players to develop and take regular season minutes from our stars makes sense.
  • High level rookies are on cheap, 4 year contracts w/ bird rights and turn into restricted free agents. We can also extend our core players while they develop.
  • It is financially impossible for this team to bring in free agents outside our MLE, TPE, and minimum contracts.
  • Drafting high-level rookies into the best culture, system, and team in the league??? Sign me up.
  • It is the only way to keep our championship window open in the short and long-term. We can still field an elite roster next year, the year after, and 5-6 years down the line if we get good development from our players.
  • That being said we shouldn’t be opposed to trading down into the 6-10 range this year if able.

Who We Should Draft

1) James Wiseman, C, Memphis, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/w3rkm8r1rdh41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31d4771979ae6e0da2e6be03d5940702eb15b3a0
  • 7’1” 235, 7’5” Wingspan
  • Age 18 (3/31/01)
  • 20/10/3 blocks on 77/NA/70 splits
  • Pick Prediction: We take him if he is on the board
  • James is arguably the best center prospect since Karl Anthony-Towns. But the changing NBA landscape and his shortened season might give us an opportunity to draft him as high as 5. He's an athlete, has a build that will allow him to add muscle, and was already an elite shot blocker in Memphis. He’s a physical specimen with measurables only matched by Rudy Gobert. He has shown the potential to build a jump shot and has good awareness around the rim. He shot 70% on 9FTA per game this season. It will take him time to develop into a star but he should produce at least Javale-like numbers year one. Historically we have never had a great center so it’s hard to imagine this team with a dominant big. The league is trending smaller but I still think Wiseman is a must-draft prospect with superstar potential

2) Anthony Edwards, G Georgia, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/abdqcx92rdh41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a15508e980af81e1f5e19a7f4b362cd9a545baa1
  • 6’5” 225, 6’10” Wingspan
  • Age 18 (8/05/01)
  • 20/5/3 on 41/30/76 splits (7.5 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: We take him if Wiseman is off the board
  • I’m not as high on Edwards as others but once again he has potential we can't pass up on. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft and already has an incredible NBA body. He can score and get his shot off anywhere plus has the makeup to be a lockdown defender. He already does everything on both ends of the floor well. He’s the most complete player in the draft and a top 2 pick.
  • Edwards’ biggest negative is his shot selection: Step back twos, contested jumpers, isolation fade-aways, etc. Luckily It seems it's more a product of his system/green light rather than an attitude issue (see Carmelo Anthony). It's still the biggest knock on him as a prospect and his ego would take a hit on this Warriors team.
After Wiseman & Edwards are selected I could see us trading down into the 5-11 range as star potential drops-off (except for LaMelo, who I’m not high on). Other teams will try to trade down as well, so we might end up having to keep the pick.

3a) Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State, Sophomore

https://preview.redd.it/y8nozj03rdh41.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ff238425ee79d6844c8c58d5aedae0339faf1e4
  • 6’5” 185, Good Wingspan
  • Age 19 (2/29/00)
  • 15/6/7 on 50/42/82 splits (3 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: 4-8
  • Tyrese is my favorite player in this draft. I’m arguably higher on Haliburton than Edwards, especially fit-wise for this team. Tyrese is a natural passer, team player, and a more efficient scorer as a sophomore at Iowa State. He acts as the floor general in a pass-and-move system and is already an elite facilitator. He's a great shooter with a funky jumpshot (KAT and Kevin Martin mixed), but I don’t think it will be an issue in the league. He has NBA range ++ and Tyrese will space the floor immediately as a catch-and-shoot player. Defensively he needs work on-ball, but his team defense is excellent. He is a vocal defender with crisp rotations, and frequently blocks shots & attacks the passing lanes. He’s out for the season with a broken wrist so he could fall to us in the 7-10 range.

3b) Isaac Okoro, F, Auburn, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/r8sd4bo3rdh41.jpg?width=927&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8eaf22fb9135d4df2124784b84ab772ddb56af7b
  • 6’6”, 225, 6”9” Wingspan
  • Age 19 (1/26/01)
  • 13/5/2 on 51/27/66 (2.5 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: 4-6
  • Okoro is rising up big-boards as one of this draft’s most intriguing prospects. He has great athleticism and will make an immediate impact on an NBA defense: switching 1-5, locking-up the opponents best scorer, harassing off-ball, and demoralizing teams on a nightly basis. Offensively he's very raw but has come into his own since the start of the year, playing his most consistent stretch of basketball in February. He isn’t your typical 3&D wing: he's at his best when he can use his body and physicality to score. He racks up second chance points as a great offensive rebounder and thrives in transition. In the halfcourt he’s most effective when attacking the basket or cutting backdoor. His 3 ball is also improving: shooting 32% in his last 8 games (with decent form). Okoro makes us an elite defense right away and has a good ceiling offensively.

3c) Obi Toppin, F, Dayton, Sophomore

https://preview.redd.it/wddx69o4rdh41.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8a909292256014bfc78d7a8e5b77fe85f6db3d3
  • 6’9”, 220, Good Wingspan
  • Age 21 (3/4/1998)
  • 20/8/2 on 63/36/72 splits (3 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: Trade down, 6-10
  • Obi is a physically developed 6’9” athlete who is an incredibly powerful dunker. He can play the post, set screens, run the floor, block shots, and is a great fit in today’s game. He’s also shown NBA range with good form in his sophomore season. Being almost 22 years old he doesn’t have the ceiling of other prospects, but he's a sure bet to be a productive player. Toppin will work as a small ball centePF and can play 3-5. His on-ball defense is a question mark against playmaking forwards but he still should be an asset on that end.

6) Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv

https://preview.redd.it/lb9635b5rdh41.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c476ba21e612da2ba2120bb5e37007612000a50
  • 6’8”, 200
  • Age 19
  • 4/3/1 on 47/33/58 (14 mpg)
  • Pick Prediction: Trade down, 7-11
  • Deni is a prospect who hasn’t played many minutes this year. He is a point-forward who can score, pass, dribble and play within the offense. In the minutes he's actually received he's been a pretty impressive player! (Think of a better facilitating Gallinari as his ceiling). He’s a decent finisher at the rim and has NBA size.
  • He does have some clear negatives: He’s limited athletically, so there is a ceiling on his defense and physical abilities. He has also been a terrible free throw shooter and his jump shot is inconsistent. That being said he is a great plug and play guy in our system with good offensive upside. He’s the last player I would be excited to draft.

Players that Don’t Make Sense


1) LaMelo Ball, G , Illawarra

https://preview.redd.it/56d3j286rdh41.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a9918eb5a2ea7363bf8e5ac8342ad851abe1897
  • 6’7”, 180
  • Age 18 (8/22/2001)
  • 17/8/7 on 37/25/72 (Seven 3PA/G)
  • The Good: Melo is a tall point forward and a triple double threat every night. He is a smoother overall player than Lonzo, has a MUCH better handle, and has some crazy finishes at the rim (high-level 2k layup package). He has a star ceiling and is the youngest out of all the prospects.
  • The Bad: Melo is a reality TV and Instagram star. I question if he has the drive & desire to compete with guys like Jimmy Butler or Russel Westbrook on a nightly basis. I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s cocky but he celebrates and stares people down more than he should on the worst team in the NBL (5-22 record this year). He’s a bad on-ball defender and doesn’t put in effort off-ball. What will be most detrimental to his NBA career, however, is his efficiency. Melo has the dream combo of bad mechanics + poor shot selection and it translates to his shooting percentages. He’ll have to make some drastic changes to be a high-level starter. I don’t abhor him as a prospect, I just hate his fit on this team and want nothing to do with the Lavar circus.

2) Onyeka Okongwu, C, USC, Freshman

https://preview.redd.it/x9nbye47rdh41.jpg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b297ef311e2e5c475231763d27832aec0a6c46af
  • 6’8”, 235
  • Age 19 (12/11/2000)
  • 16/9/3 blocks on 61/NA/75
  • Onyeka and LaMelo will be the second and third lottery picks from Chino Hills’ 2016 roster, joining Lonzo Ball in this year's draft. Okongwu is an imposing player that fills the lob threat/rim protector role better than anyone this class sans Wiseman. His ceiling will fluctuate based on the development of his jumpshot. I don’t see him as a fit- Chriss already takes up our undersized center role.

3) Everyone Else
  • There are an abundance of decent point guard prospects and none of them fit the roster (except Haliburton). RJ Hampton is too much of a project, Killian Hayes plays like Dlo, Cole Anthony is inefficient, and other guards will land outside of the lottery.


Free Agency and the TPE

This team has a few big holes and Warriors only have the Mid-Level Exception and Minimum contract options to use at our disposal: our biggest need is a bruising center, followed by wing depth, a backup point guard, and shooting. I’ve organized an MLE tier list and focused on our obtainable options. There are also minimum contract ideas to round out our roster. You can find current and future free agents here.

MLE Targets

First Tier, Pipe Dreams: Marc Gasol, Goran Dragic, Serge Ibaka , Danillo Gallinari
Second Tier, Realistic Options: Tristan Thompson, Aron Baynes, Dwight Howard, Paul Milsap, Jae Crowder, Jeff Teague

1) Tristan Thompson, C, Cleveland Cavs, Age 28
  • $18.6 mil current salary
  • 12/10/2 and 1 block on 51/NA/64, 30mpg
  • Full MLE
  • Tristan has the best mixture of age, physicality, defense, and rebounding out of our center options. He is also the youngest on this list at 28 years old. He can bang with other bruisers and switch 1-5 when locked in (as we have experienced first hand). He’s going to be a commodity with other contenders this summer.
2) Aron Baynes, C, Phoenix Suns, Age 33
  • $5.3 mil
  • 11/6/2 with 2 blocks on 49/33/72 (4 3PA/G), 22mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Aron Baynes is a big center who can shoot and stretch the floor. He’s a fantastic pairing with our starters and might be signable for a portion of the MLE. He will match up against centers like Gobert, Jokic, and Adams. He fills a role this team has never had before as a stretch 5 who can hit free throws.
3) Dwight Howard, C, Los Angeles Lakers, Age 34
  • $2.6 mil current salary
  • 8/8/1 and 1.4 blocks on 74/NA/60, 20mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Dwight finally let go of his ego and has been excellent this year in a clogged rotation. At 34 he’s still an elite athlete on the court and the best rebounder on the Lakers. He would immediately give our team size and power and brings good energy to the locker room.
4) Paul Milsap, PF, Denver Nuggets, Age 35
  • $30.1 mil
  • 12/6/2 on 48/44/85 (2.4 3PA/G), 24mpg
  • Full MLE
  • Paul has been playing at an effective level for 14 years. He’s a strong, versatile defender who can score efficiently in the flow of the offense. He’s arguably the best player on this list but he doesn’t fill our biggest needs. He will, however, be an incredible backup to Draymond and can play the 4 or small ball 5. Paul will be a highly desired asset.
5) Jae Crowder, SF, Miami Heat, Age 29
  • $7.8 mil
  • 10/6/3 on 37/29/79 (6 3PA/G) 27mpg
  • Partial MLE target
  • Crowder is our best wing option in 2020. I have him over the Morris twins because of his attitude and bball IQ. Watching Jae he’s a great teammate, hustle player, and willing passer. His efficiency is horrible this season, but it seems to be more of an outlier than normal: his career shooting splits are 42/34/78 (although fg% has been down after his stint in Boston). He’s a strong, physical defender who can guard 1-4 and always plays with effort.
6) Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta, Age 31
  • $19.0 Mil
  • 13/6/3 on 45/38/87 splits (2.5 3PA/G) 28mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Jeff hasn’t been a starting caliber pg since his Atlanta days, but he could be decent as a backup for Steph. I’m not a huge fan of his game, as he just edges out the Morris brothers for my last pick.

Third Tier, Honorable Mentions: Mason Plumlee, Nerlens Noel, Enes Kanter, Alex Len, Javale McGee, Robin Lopez, Morris Twins, Derrick Favors

Minimum Contract Ideas

Top 5: Wes Matthews, DJ Augustin, GR3, Marvin Williams, Patrick Patterson

Wes Mathews, G, 33
  • 8/3/1 on 41/37/77 splits (4 3PA/G), 25mpg
  • Wes is still producing on a Bucks team on pace to win 70 games. He is a good defender, spaces the floor, and can start if we need him too. He has a player option this year so we will have to offer him more than the vet minimum to pull him out of Milwaukee.
DJ Augustin, G, 32
  • 11/2/5 on 39/35/88 splits (3.5 3PA/G) 26mpg
  • DJ is not an exciting pickup by any means but he adds shooting and playmaking to the bench. As of right now he's a better overall PG than Poole and Bowman. He’s in the midst of a down year statistically and might be a good buy-low option.
Glen Robinson III, G, 26
  • 12/4/2 on 48/40/85 splits (3.5 3PA/G), 30mpg
  • GR3 got great experience on our team and developed into an efficient scorer. He understands our system and would be ideal as a backup wing. Unfortunately teams will offer him the full MLE, and I’m not sure it makes sense to pay him that on our roster.
Marvin Williams, F, 33
  • 7/3/1 on 45/37/86 splits (3 3PA/G), 20mpg
  • Marvin is not the stretch 4 he used to be but could still be a piece in our rotation.
Patrick Patterson
  • 5/3/0 on 40/37/79
  • Literally just a body at this point.

The Traded Player Exception

The warriors have a TPE valued at $17.1 mil from the Igoudala trade. I only see us trading down this year or using our personal 2021 pick as assets, so the players we can get back in return are limited. Here are three players we should consider.

Terrence Ross, G, 29
  • 13/3/1 on 39/32/83 Splits (7 3PA/G), 27mpg
  • $13.5 mil/year through 2023
  • Terrence is a decent wing player who’s having a bit of a down year percentage wise. He makes less than our full TPE and gives us more cap flexibility than someone like Evan Fornier. He is a scorer who’s best as a catch-and-shoot 2 guard and is a match in our system.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, 27
  • 15/11/2 and 1 block on 59/37/72 splits (1.5 3PA/G), 26mpg
  • $15.0 mil/year through 2022
  • Jonas fits our center rotation like a glove with his size and strength. He dominates in matchup dependent stretches against weaker bigs. The Grizzlies will want a better asset than our 2021 pick so he might be an unrealistic target.
Thaddeus Young, F, 31
  • 10/4/1 on 44/34/59 splits (3 3PA/G), 24mpg
  • $14.5 mil/year through 2022
  • Thad is highly coveted by this sub and could be a decent rotation forward, however his athleticism is declining. This year he’s been an average bench player on a bad Bulls team. His only assets are defense, hustle, and instincts. He ‘s an old option and will be 33 at the end of his contract.

Summary/TLDR:
The Warriors are in hibernation mode but have done a great job pooling assets together for another 5 year ++ run. It was a blessing in disguise that everyone got injured at the same time. Our stars are aging, so it's logical to draft rookies that will grow into our system. The talent pool isn’t elite this year, but there are a few prospects we can’t pass up on. In free agency we have the MLE, TPE, and Minimum contract options to sign players. We have a wide-variety of ways to fill out our roster. I think we maintain championship contention for at least 3 more years.
Statistics, Sources, and Salary Cap Information
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
https://www.espn.com/
https://www.spotrac.com/
submitted by Alwaysmovingup to warriors [link] [comments]

[BARR'S FREE PLAY 8/13/20]

Good afternoon everyone, hopefully your bets are going well. If you're looking for action today, I'm going to provide a FREE PLAY at the bottom of this post!
Profitable day for the VIP model yesterday with the following plays: [BARR'S BETS 8/12/20] [WIN] [MLB] 4:10PM EST OAKLAND ATHLETICS VS. LOS ANGELES ANGELS, PICK: OAKLAND ATHLETICS (+100) [LOSS] [NBA] 6:35PM EST TORONTO RAPTORS VS. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS, PICK: TORONTO RAPTORS -6.5 (-108) [WIN] [MLB] 6:37PM EST MIAMI MARLINS VS. TORONTO BLUE JAYS, PICK: OVER 8.5 (-107) [LOSS] [MLB] 6:40PM EST KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS. CINCINNATI REDS, PICK: CINCINNATI REDS (-109) [WIN] [NBA] 9:05PM EST LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS. DENVER NUGGETS, PICK: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -5 (+100)
However, that's not even the highlight of the day! The Sixers were up ~10+ in the first quarter, and I absolutely couldn't believe it. Gave us TONS of value (spoiler, the VIP lost, but this didn't):
https://imgur.com/dqN4g8w - IN THE #GENERAL CHAT FOR ALL FREE USERS https://imgur.com/z0qpG53 - The CLUTCH https://imgur.com/TmnJFzK - The SPOILS
Maybe we got a bit lucky ;) But we saw the balance go up a bit. Let's carry on with today's free play, please note that this free play ISN'T part of my VIP model's top confidence picks, but still should be a win today :)
[BARR'S FREE PLAY 8/13/20] [MLB] 5:10PM EST PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS. CINCINNATI REDS, PICK: UNDER 9 (-101)
Model's predicted score: Pirates 3 - 5 Reds
Under 9 gives us chop outs at 9, would take 9.5 if they have it, consider taking 8.5 if that's your current line. I think most books are favoring O9 (at least as of this morning)
Pitching for the Reds tonight is Anthony DeSclafani, who hasn't given up a run yet this season in his 2 starts. His track record isn't great against the Pirates, but a good start to the season against the Pirates who have been off for 3 days could be a recipe for success early in tonight's game.
Pitching for the Pirates tonight is Trevor Williams, he sucks. Ehh he's okay. The Pirates suck. I'm hoping they suck tonight but don't give up that many runs in the sucking either.
It should be a good pitching matchup vs. 2 teams that are struggling offensively. Despite both of them wanting to bounce back and get a win, I'm expecting it to be under 9!
If you're interested in the VIP picks from my model today, shoot me a message.
submitted by BarrBetting to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Cannot for the life of me seem to setup a Node-Scheduler in our pre-launch nodeJS application.

Update: Solution solved. Thanks for helping me localize the specific issue. In one part I was not thinking correctly about the imports and depedencies and then once I figured it out, I figured out a typo configuration issue. The solution was to:
change code
from:
scheduler
scheduler.start()



Specific Question: How do I set up a scheduler like Chron / Node-Scheduler within a pre-launch nodeJS application. First reddit post after 10 years of stubbornly lurking on reddit, so clearly I am very very motivated to solve this problem and desperate for help / advice :)
I may need to set up a scheduler in nodeJS to run certain batch data analytics functions that generate our mongo data collections. If I provided more details than you're interested, feel free to just read the bold which hits the key points. For now I just want to try it out and spend no more than 1-2 days playing around to see if this is a fruitful path.
The technical issue: I can't seem to install a Scheduler in our existing nodeJS project that uses typescript.
The business context / issue: the particular way we use a route triggered by a key user action in our workflow to update our key data analytics layers [which are the core of the Product] is proving to be a not useful pattern
I suspect that setting up a timer to call the functions to build the data analytics layers might be a fruitful way to get the server and database to cooperate.
I've received the feedback - encapsulate and test - but there isn't a specific function that isn't running well in isolation.
So please help me node community!
Thank you!
submitted by waystar_corp to node [link] [comments]

The Importance of Closing Line Value (CLV)

Closing Line Value

Most recreational bettors simply bet with the hopes to get lucky and win. Winning money is obviously a way to tell if you're making good bets. The ultimate measure of identifying how well a sports bettor is doing Is with closing line value or CLV. Beating the closing line means that you take a better number or price than what the market closes at, therefore having a bet with a higher probability of winning than if you made it at a later (or earlier) time. By beating the closing line, we add a share of possibility in our favor against the market. The closing lines represent the most efficient market conditions, because, at this point, all participants in the market had the best information available and the line reflects this.
In the sports market, the sharp bookmakers’ closing lines are considered to be the expected value (EV). Meaning that If you bet at better odds than the closing line you have made a +EV wager (positive/plus expected value), while if the odds you bet at are worse than the closing line you have a -EV bet (negative/minus expected value). Obviously when you are looking to make a bet you do not know what the closing line will be. However there are multiple factors that impact the movement of the odds which ultimately conclude the closing line. (I will detail this more in future lessons and weekly classes)
According to the efficient market hypothesis the closing odds are on average more accurate than the opening odds in predicting the probability of how an event will play out. Opening lines don’t reflect all the information available in the market, and therefore “inefficiencies exist”. As bettors, we want to bet into inefficient markets, to exploit discrepancies when we think our pricing is more accurate than the market. By beating the closing line consistently, you can prove that you do just that. Pinnacle was for a while considered the sharpest closing line, recently CRIS has taken over that spot and is now known as the sharpest bookmaker in the world, using their closing lines as an indicator makes the most sense.
Sports betting is not about results; it’s about the process. I know that sounds crazy to some so I’ll say it again, sports betting is not about results; it’s about the process. You cannot control the outcome of games, but you can manage your handicapping/betting process. The goal is to make +EV decisions that lead to profitable outcomes long-term. The probabilities we apply in our handicapping process are estimated probabilities, we don’t know what the real chances for winning a particular bet are.
Nobody is able to accurately predict the outcome of every sporting event. However, this does not imply that it is impossible to become a profitable sports bettor or that those who are profitable are just lucky. Placing bets that have a larger chance of winning than implied by the odds. Over a small sample size of bets anything can happen or in other words variance will have a large impact on your results. A friend of mine who made her first ever real money bet this past NBA season went on a 16 day winning streak going 19-6 in her first 25 bets, close to an 80% winning %. Of course she’s not one of the world’s sharpest sports bettors because she hit 80% over a 2 week span. What happens is over a larger volume of bets the variance will even out and only sports bettors who are able to consistently beat the closing lines will be profitable. (Update she lost the $250 she deposited into her sports book account after exactly 60 days and hasn’t bet again)
The key to handicapping is pricing teams more accurately than the market, consistently over the long run. A point spread on any given game says: this is the point where the market believes that 50% of possible outcomes fall on either side of the number. Our job as handicappers – no matter how we do it – is to find discrepancies between our estimate and the market’s estimate for a spread, total or whatever.
Let’s say Wake Forest is favored by 3 points over North Carolina. If your handicapping process comes up with an estimated line of -6 in favor of WF, your edge will be three points. You would think that Wake Forest wins by 3 or more points in more than 50% of the possible outcomes. You apply a higher probability by your estimated line. That’s what handicapping is about. Pricing teams more accurately than the market is beating the closing line. When bettors combine this with other factors like discipline, money management, they are on the right path to being profitable.
Beating the closing line requires handicapping skills or what we refer to in the community as game theory, but also market analysis must be combined (Art & Science). One isn’t enough, both must be combined. As I explained above, your goal is to price teams/events and totals more accurately than the market. By that, you can exploit inefficiencies in the markets. A big advantage is to try and always be looking ahead. On Sundays I’m always looking at the next week and handicapping those games. Make notes and write down which market reactions you expect depending on possible results during the current week. Try to anticipate where influential money will be going. Some services advertise things like “sharp action reports” to bait you into betting on so-called “steam moves.” But we want to bet those numbers as early as possible, not after the whole world recognizes the move. Does you no good knowing which side has been steamed after the fact.
One suggestion I have to help you get CLV, which will help result in +EV positions is to start making your own projections before lines are posted, that way you can bet proactively instead of reactively. If you do this before looking at the lines it will help eliminate some bias. I wouldn’t recommend backing these positions with money if you don’t have a sound process established but by tracking this it will give you a good idea of impact points in the market and find patterns.
submitted by bettingnetwork to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market Movers & News [Monday, January 27th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the wallstreetbets sub! Welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Monday, January 27th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($AAPL $TSLA $AMD $AMZN $MSFT $FB $BA $GE $MA $T $V $SBUX $PYPL $MCD $LMT $MMM $DHI $PFE $UTX $KO $UPS $S $NURO $HMST $VZ $HCA $XLNX $ARNC $XOM $CAT $BX $PGR $LRCX $GD $PHM $NVR $PII $SALT $BIIB $NOW $ANTM $NUE $ALK $PLUG $MPC)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($DHI $NURO $HMST $S $ARNC $NVR $SALT $BMRC $RDY $BOH $OPB $ARLP $PROV $NWBI)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS AFTERNOON'S POST-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

()
([CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]())
T.B.A.

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)
NONE.

FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #4!)

FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SPY
  • NNVC
  • BABA
  • QQQ
  • SPCE
  • TVIX
  • APT
  • ABBV
  • DJIA
  • DIA

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
D.R. Horton (DHI) – The homebuilder earned $1.16 per share for its fiscal first quarter, beating the consensus estimate of 92 cents a share. Revenue also topped forecasts. New orders were up 19% on a volume basis and up 22% in value. The company also raised the upper end of its full-year home sales forecast.

STOCK SYMBOL: DHI

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Arconic (ARNC) – Arconic missed estimates by a penny a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of 53 cents per share. Revenue came in shy of Wall Street predictions. The maker of engineered metals products saw a 1% improvement in organic revenue on factors like favorable pricing and raw materials costs, partially offset by some weakness in its automotive and commercial transportation markets. Arconic also said it would complete its planned split of its aerospace components and aluminum rolling businesses into two companies on April 1.

STOCK SYMBOL: ARNC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Travel-related stocks – These are likely to be hit once again as coronavirus cases mount – including major airlines like United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest (LUV), and cruise line operators like Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL). Casino stocks like Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) are also being hit.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Starbucks (SBUX) – Starbucks has temporarily closed all its shots in China’s Hubei province and suspended delivery services, amid health concerns for customers and employees amid the spread of the coronavirus.

STOCK SYMBOL: SBUX

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Estee Lauder (EL) – Oppenheimer downgraded the cosmetics maker to “perform” from “outperform.” The firm cited the stock’s premium valuation coupled with concerns about the coronavirus impact on a company that has seen China represent a key driver of recent growth.

STOCK SYMBOL: EL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Boeing (BA) – Boeing completed a successful maiden voyage of its 777-X jet over the weekend, a respite for the jet maker amid the ongoing grounding of its 737 Max jet.

STOCK SYMBOL: BA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
AbbVie (ABBV) – AbbVie sold a number of assets to Nestle and AstraZeneca (AZN), as it seeks to win regulatory approval for its $63 billion acquisition of drugmaker Allergan (AGN).

STOCK SYMBOL: ABBV

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) – Fiat Chrysler filed court motions Friday to dismiss a lawsuit filed by rival automaker General Motors (GM). Fiat Chrysler said GM does not have sufficient grounds to bring a racketeering case that alleges bribery of union officials.

STOCK SYMBOL: FCAU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Kraft Heinz (KHC) – Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio told The Wall Street Journal that he wants to food maker to make fewer but bigger bets on new products, as its older brands suffer a sales decline.

STOCK SYMBOL: KHC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alphabet (GOOGL) – State attorneys general will meet with Justice Department officials to share investigative material involving Google, according to The Wall Street Journal.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Winnebago Industries (WGO) – The RV maker was rated “overweight” in new coverage at KeyBanc, which sees recreational vehicle shipments stronger than consensus for 2020 and is also optimistic about the increasing benefits of Winnebago’s 2016 acquisition of towable vehicle maker Grand Design.

STOCK SYMBOL: WGO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

DISCUSS!

What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at wallstreetbets?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, January 27th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

(JAN 02) NFL EARLY INFO ALERT - (TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS) + COLLEGE BOWL ACTION TONIGHT!!

(JAN 02) NFL EARLY INFO ALERT - (TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS) + COLLEGE BOWL ACTION TONIGHT!!
(JAN 02) NFL EARLY INFO ALERT - (TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS) + COLLEGE BOWL ACTION TONIGHT!!
https://preview.redd.it/qeb9l9tcnf841.jpg?width=581&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13e9c5c96373db1c86266e592f8346a7c18fa14d
Website: RedAlertWagers.com
Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613)
Text THE RED LINE For Tonight's Free MAC ATTACK PLAYS!!
Follow The MAC on Social Media:
Twitter.com/RedAlertWagers
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30 years of insight, experience & bankroll management is bringing another profitable week for The Mac!! Early Info Plays, NFL Major Move Alerts, & CBB Hush Money Plays, are the reason that there are no better options out there for betting against the spread!!
THE MAC put his money where his mouth is all week and The Mac will once again prove why they continuously acclaim him to be a National Treasure!! Premium Play & Top Rated Release earnings are up substantially, College Hoops Plays are more than impressive this year, and tonight's CBB Action is set to go our direction. The MAC has a full card today and he is getting the all the geetus with conviction, he did his homework and is keeping open lines of discourse between his consensus groups and other affiliated player syndicates across the country.
There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! Tonight RedAlertWagers.com and The MAC have a BIRMINGHAM BOWL NCAAF MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY - (BOSTON COLLEGE vs CINCINNATI U) + A NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (JAN 02) - (RHODE ISLAND -8.5 vs BROWN +8.5) as well as a Full Red Alert Card of CFB, CBB, & NBA Expert Sports Picks!
When you follow The MAC, your'e in good hands, Red Alert Expert Basketball Picks have been atomic all year. Today, Mac McGuillaman has plenty of hoops games to choose from and spotted a gem of a game between TEXAS STATE +1.5 vs ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK -1.5. The Mac is releasing this as a CBB Back Room Info Play for RedAlertWagers.com clients, The 8-5 Trojans are hosting the 7-6 Bobcats. The Trojans as a slight favorite are expected to keep this game close, Texas St. will be relying on their Guard, Nijal Pearson, to have a break out game while the Spartans put the pressure on with their 2 top players - Markquis Nowell, Ruot Monyyong. The MAC will be on the right side of this game because making these calls is just what The Mac does. The MAC'S Top Rated CBB predictions, Red Alert Plays, & OUR EXCLUSIVE COLLEGE BASKETBALL CALLS get it done, and that's just what it is.
The MAC'S Hush Money Action on tonight's College Basketball game between RHODE ISLAND -8.5 vs BROWN +8.5 will be starting @ 7:00, Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Bears, Gaels, Bulldogs, and Huskies has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops hush money action. Last Night the RedAlertWagers.com Team's Hush Money Play on CONNECTICUT +2.5 missed, final score 51-67, a dud that are few and far between this college basketball season. We pride our action by bringing the results that has the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball picks against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
We will be getting it in the right way tonight with some BIRMINGHAM BOWL ACTION - (BOSTON COLLEGE +7.5 vs CINCINNATI U -7.5 + TENNESSEE -2.5 vs INDIANA +2.5), The MAC is moving heavy with a Major Move Alert Eagles-Bearcats side/total pick, kickoff @ 3:00. THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS -2.5 vs INDIANA HOOSIERS +2.5 at 7:00 is a Top Rated Late Info Play and it goes without saying that we have been cleaning up all week! The MAC doesn't go where the game is, he puts his nuts right on the line to bring you where the money is, and tonight will be no different! This is the type of action that makes THE MAC's Top Rated & Premium College Basketball Plays like no others!
THE MAC is not only loaded with NCAA gifts from the odds-makers this year, and make no mistake, he very much is anticipating the outcome of his Late Info & Hoops Hush Money Play, but The Mac has his attention focused on The NFL Playoffs.
With the regular season coming to a end, and the big boy games about to begin, the NFL playoffs are when The MAC brings the big guns out, so expect that The MAC will be locked & loaded with expert NFL playoff predictions and his annual Vegas Tournament approved 2020 NFL Playoff Bracket Picks!
MAC'S Printable Pre-Filled Playoff Bracket for the 2020 NFL Superbowl 54 Playoffs are available for download. Looking to rip down a office pool with a pre-made bracket by professional sports handicapper Roland "THE ROARIN MAC" McGuillaman - The Internets Most Venerable Sports Service!
RedAlertWagers.com & Roland "The Roarin MAC' McGuillaman 2020 Playoff/Superbowl 54 Prediction Printable/Downloadable Bracket - (Superbowl 54 LIV Bracket)
The Mac has been entering his expert NFL handicapping picks & predictions in pick-em tournaments for over the course of his career and since 1997 he has offered his tournament bracket picks to the public. The RedAlertWagers.com team has made this information available on the internet making The MAC one of the most venerable sources for expert football betting information, against the spread NFL predictions, and NFL playoff picks, lionizing RedAlertWagers.com & Roland McGuillaman in and around sportsbooks and casinos
The MAC will be collecting a envelope from his local bookie this week -
(JAN 02) UPP RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PLAYS
Weekly Bankroll:
(DEC 30 - JAN 05) - DAY 4 BANKROLL TOTAL: THURSDAY @ +57 UNITS
(JAN 02) - TODAY'S BANKROLL RISK: 78 UNITS
LAST WEEKS RESULTS:
(DEC 23 - 29) - 7 DAY BANKROLL: +27 UNITS
***PATREON TOP RATED EXCLUSIVE PLAYS**\*
  • NFL EARLY INFO PLAY (JAN 04) - (TENNESSEE TITANS vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS O/U 44)
  • NFL MAJOR MOVE ALERT (JAN 05) - (MINNESOTA VIKINGS +8 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -8)
  • NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (JAN 02) - (RHODE ISLAND -8.5 vs BROWN +8.5)
  • NCAAB LATE INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (UAB +2.5 vs CHARLOTTE U -2.5)
  • NCAAB EARLY INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (SE MISSOURI ST +10 vs AUSTIN PEAY -10)
  • NCAAB BACK ROOM INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (TEXAS STATE +1.5 vs ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK -1.5)
  • NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (TEXAS STATE +1.5 vs ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK -1.5)
  • NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (SAINT MARYS CA -3.5 vs SAN FRANCISCO +3.5)
  • NCAAF MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (BOSTON COLLEGE vs CINCINNATI U O/U 54.5)
  • NCAAF BACK ROOM INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (BOSTON COLLEGE +7.5 vs CINCINNATI U +7.5)
  • NCAAF LATE INFO PLAY (JAN 02) - (TENNESSEE -2.5 vs INDIANA +2.5)
**PATREON PREMIUM PLAYS*\*
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (SAINT LOUIS +3 vs DUQUESNE -3)
  • NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (JAN 02) - (FORDHAM +19.5 vs VA COMMONWEALTH -19.5)
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Week 6 - Matchup Strategy Guide (Part 1) - DFA

Part 2 right here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/nfl/week-6-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

What’s up fellow fantasy connoisseurs, welcome to Week 6 of DFA’s matchup strategy guide (Part 1). We decided to try out a different format last week and would appreciate any and all feedback on it. Thanks for reading and make sure to check out Part 2 which is dropping tomorrow with the rest of the games.
Additionally, we dropped our first Fantasy Basketball article a couple days ago and will be continuing to produce content for NBA fantasy as we gear up for draft season. Check it out here: https://www.designatedforassessment.com/
Glossary:
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS= Against the spread

Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at London)

Panthers ATS: 3-2-0 Buccaneers ATS: 2-3-0
Projected Point Totals: Panthers 25.5 Buccaneers 23
This Game Kicks off at 9:30am ET. Don’t forget to set your lineups

Panthers

Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #22
Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1
Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): ILB Jack Cichy (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CAR): QB Cam Newton (OUT) RB Christian McCaffery (expected to play) G Trai Turner (Q) T Greg Little (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Christian McCaffrey (22%) D.J. Moore (22%) Curtis Samuel (21%) Greg Olsen (17%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Christian McCaffrey (78%, 25, 8) Reggie Bonnafon (15%, 5, 0) Alex Armah (7%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Week 6 slate provides a grudge match between two NFC South contenders, with the loser facing an uphill battle to win the division. Cam Newton may have lost Carolina’s Week 2 TNF matchup against the Bucs with his inaccurate arm, but they still had a chance to win the game with CMC’s legs in the closing seconds, until he was stuffed at the goal line. Kyle Allen (upgrade) has been used primarily as a game manager and taken a backseat to the CMC show, but with TB having the No. 1 run defense so far, they may be pushed to get the ball in the air this week to win. He can be considered a back-end QB1. Curtis Samuel (upgrade) and D.J. Moore (upgrade) were both victims of Newton’s struggles in the first meeting of the year, but Tampa’s secondary was ripe for exploitation - Newton just couldn’t get the ball to his speedy receivers, missing Samuel on several deep throws or getting the ball to him late, causing him to be tackled well short of where the play could have gone. TB is giving up the most FPPG to opposing wideouts and Carolina will begin to hit on the deep ball at some point, this week could very well be it. Consider both upside WR3’s. Greg Olsen also draws an extremely favorable matchup, TB is giving up the second most FPPG to tight ends (12.5) and Olsen should be considered a top-6 tight end this week.
RB Breakdown
Christian McCaffery continues to eat and is still in the mix for the overall RB1, even going against the best run defense in the league so far. His involvement in all facets of the game keep his floor high. He’s questionable but expected to play, owners should grab Reggie Bonnafun in case CMC’s health goes sideways before kickoff.

Buccaneers

Opp (CAR) Pass DVOA: #4
Opp (CAR) Run DVOA: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (CAR): DT Gerald McCoy (Q) DB/LB Christian Miller (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): WR Breshad Perriman (OUT) T Demar Dotson (OUT) G Alex Cappa (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: Mike Evans vs. James Bradberry (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Chris Godwin (26%) Mike Evans (23%) Dare Ogunbowale (10%) Breshad Perriman (9%) O.J. Howard (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Ronald Jones (34%, 11, 3) Peyton Barber (34%, 9, 1) Dare Ogunbowale (32%, 3, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The roller coaster ride of having Jameis Winston on your fantasy squad continues to provide it’s peaks and valleys. There have been more peaks this season than years past and Winston is the #10 QB through 5 weeks. Even in a down week loss to the Saints last week, Winston put up a respectable 17.5 fantasy points and didn’t turn the ball over once. It’s possible he’s turned a corner, but it’s also just as likely that the next bust week is right around the corner… The emergence of Chris Godwin has certainly helped the oft-scrutinized quarterback, and Godwin has become a true WR1 in fantasy - he’s sitting pretty as the overall WR1 through 5 weeks. Godwin’s ascent has brought fellow wideout Mike Evans back to earth, as he only saw 3 targets last week in his duel with Saints stud CB Marcus Lattimore. Next on deck is a matchup with another elite CB in James Bradberry, a player that has thwarted Evans multiple times in his career, including their last matchup in Week 2. Consider Evans a feast-or-famine WR2 this week in the bad matchup. With field stretcher Breshad Perriman not traveling to London, tight end O.J Howard is in a position to gain a larger target share. It may not matter however, as the Panthers have the leagues fifth-best defense against tight ends, only giving up a stingy 4 FPPG to the position. Howard is impossible to trust at this point and should be considered a TE2.
RB Breakdown
Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones continue to kill each others value and neither should be treated as more than RB3’s. Going up against one of the league's worst run defenses is a prime position to get a boom week out of one of these players, but it’s impossible to know who will get the volume to produce. Dare Ogunbowale isn’t seeing the field enough to be a fantasy asset, leave him on the wire.
Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 17

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)

Bengals ATS: 2-3-0 Ravens ATS: 1-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Bengals 18.25 Ravens 29.75

Bengals

Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #23
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #24
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): CB Jimmy Smith (out)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): OT Cordy Glenn (DNP, likely out), WR Alex Erickson, AJ Green (out), John Ross (out)
Key WCB matchups: Tyler Boyd vs. Marlon Humphrey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Boyd (26%) John Ross (19%) Auden Tate (16%) Tyler Eifer (10%) Joe Mixon (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Joe Mixon (63%, 20, 1) Bernard (39%, 5, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bengals couldn’t snag their first win in the participation trophy bowl last week, but it’s ok because Zac Taylor believes his team is all “going in the same direction”. Um, ok i guess. Andy Dalton did show signs of life in the 4th quarter, finishing with 262 yards and 2 TDs, but continues to be inconsistent and makes numerous mistakes every week. The Ravens have not been good on defense this year, and will be without CB Jimmy Smith again this week, but Dalton is no more than a bye week QB2 filler, albeit one in a projected shootout. Tyler Boyd gets a tough matchup against Humphrey, but his volume keeps him in the WR2 mix, especially in PPR leagues. Auden Tate (upgrade) should be the beneficiary with easier matchups, and he makes for a solid low end WR3 based on his usage the past few weeks. Tyler Eifert (drop) couldn’t get it going even against Arizona last week, so if you haven’t yet done him the courtesy of putting him back on the wire, do so now for his dignity as much as yours.
RB Breakdown
In their first drive last week the Bengals ran almost every play, and their continuous chunk plays should have led to a TD. But after that drive, they struggled to generate any running lanes, and steadily gave up on the run game as the Cardinals jumped out to a lead. Joe Mixon (downgrade PPR) hit a season-high in rushing with 93 yards, but 60 of those were on the opening drive. He also turned his one target into a 16 yard catch. Mixon’s lack of involvement in the passing game is a big problem, as the Bengals will likely be in negative game flow for a majority of their remaining games. With the Bengals below-average offense not reaching the red zone very often, Mixon’s chances for rushing TD’s have decreased as well. If the Ravens get off to a good start, it’s easy to imagine Mixon finishing with around 75 rushing yards, no TD, and one catch for 10 yards again this week. That 8-10 point line is decent for an RB2, but makes for a risky start in PPR leagues, and isn’t the type of production owners that drafted Mixon early are counting on him for. Consider him a back end RB2 that needs to either get into the end zone or bust a big play in the passing game to have any chance at a ceiling game. Gio Bernard (stash) continues to out target Mixon, and has run more routes overall this season as well. He has no standalone value, but in the event of a Mixon injury, would potentially be a more valuable play than Mixon has been so far because of his likely 3 down role. He’s a valuable handcuff to roster at this point.

Ravens

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): LB Nick Vigil (limited)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): WR Marquise Brown (DNP, Q), Mark Andrews (full practice, Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Mark Andrews (23%) Marquise Brown (23%) Willie Snead (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Mark Ingram (65%, 21, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Ravens offense has cooled a bit in recent weeks, but they have still put up 23+ points in every game. Lamar Jackson (upgrade) has been a top-5 QB based mostly on his rushing ability, and he’s put in enough in the passing game to make him an every week set and forget. He’s no Pat Mahomes, but he’s also no Tim Tebow either. Mark Andrews (upgrade) is tied for the highest target share on the team, and is an easy top-6 TE at an extremely thin position. The Cincy defense is 7th stingiest against TE’s (NFL.com) but Andrews will be a target hog this week, especially if the Ravens are missing their top WR. Marquise Brown (downgrade PPR) is questionable to play after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday, so his status is worth monitoring closely heading into the weekend. If he does play, he makes for a solid WR3 because of his high target volume and big play ability, but may not be needed much if the Ravens pound the run at home. If he is forced to miss the game, Willie Snead would enter the streaming radar as he has shown a solid connection with Jackson so far. Even as the top WR, however, he’d be no more than a WR4 with some decent PPR upside.
RB Breakdown
The Ravens haven’t been quite as run heavy as some predicted, but Mark Ingram (upgrade) has gotten just enough volume to be a top-10 RB so far this season. Going up against a defense that has given up the second most FPPG to opposing RB’s, and as a huge home favorite, Ingram makes for a top 5 RB play in Week 6. He’s a chalk play in DFS, and might be in a week-winning position on Sunday. ** Gus Edwards** and ** Justice Hill** are no more than handcuffs for worried Ingram owners at this point.
Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Bengals 17

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns

Seahawks ATS: 2-3-0 ** Browns ATS:** 2-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Seahawks 24 Browns 22.5

Seahawks

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): Greedy Williams (limited), Denzel Ward (limited)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA): OL DJ Fluker (DNP), OL Duane Brown (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Lockett (23%) Will Dissly (17%) DK Metcalf (17%) Chris Carson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Chris Carson (84%, 28, 2) Rashaad Penny (16%, 8, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Seahawks have managed to grind out a number of wins this year, and last week’s TNF matchup against the Rams was no exception. Russell Wilson basically willed Seattle to victory, and he put on a clinic of efficient passing. He has yet to throw an INT this year, and is making an underwhelming cast of weapons look like a top-10 offense. Even against a solid pass defense that may get their starting CBs back this week, Wilson has been too good this year to consider benching. This does profile as one of the tougher matchups he’s faced this year, so expectations should be tempered slightly. Tyler Lockett (downgrade) is unlikely to face consistent coverage from either of the Browns young stud CBs (assuming they play) but his lack of volume of late (4 targets each of the last two weeks) make it harder to project a big week for him. The Browns have been much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, so expect the overall passing volume to be lowered slightly. Lockett has really only had one big game all year, and it was against NO when the Seahawks were down big early. Assuming the Browns struggle again to put up points offensively, this doesn’t initially project as a game that should feature negative game script. DK Metcalf (downgrade) is the more likely WR to face some kind of shadow coverage on the outside, and combining that with his smaller target share, he’s more of a WR4 that you can only start in hopes of one long TD play. Will Dissly (upgrade) has been one of the surprises of the season with his strong play, and with the Browns giving up the 8th most FPPG to opposing TEs, he remains firmly planted in the top 8 of the position this week.
RB Breakdown
Despite some early fumbling issues, Chris Carson (upgrade) has been given a big workload in all but one game this year, and that was in a matchup that featured negative game flow right from the start (Week 3 vs. NO). Carson got 28 touches last week, and caught his only target for the go-ahead TD late in the game. The Browns are fresh off getting absolutely obliterated in the run game by the Niners and now go up against a Seattle team that runs the ball almost as much. Carson is a lock for 20+ touches, and has a great shot at a TD. He’s on the RB1/2 borderline, and just needs a slight uptick in targets to break into the top-12 ROS. Rashaad Penny (stash) isn’t garnering enough touches for standalone value, but remains an extremely valuable handcuff.

Browns

Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA: #19
Opp (SEA) Run DVOA: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Odell Beckham Jr. (26%) Jarvis Landry (24%) Nick Chubb (12%) Antonio Callaway (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Nick Chubb (84%, 17, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
There’s no sugarcoating just how bad Baker Mayfield (upgrade) has been as a fantasy QB so far this year. He’s barely in the top-30 at the position through 5 weeks, and there’s just something wrong with this offense. This feels like a good game for Mayfield to put up a better line, and he may actually be available on the waiver wire this week. He’s nowhere near back to QB1 status, but going up against a burnable Seahawks secondary in a game the Browns could face some negative game script, Mayfield may surprise this week. We project him as a high end QB2, worth starting for owners in a bye week pinch. The biggest factor for Mayfield’s value is tied to getting Odell Beckham Jr. (upgrade) going for more than 2 catches. There are major concerns about OBJ’s fit in this offense with the lack of an offensive line meaning fewer downfield shots, but I think he gets going this week against Seattle. Jarvis Landry has only had one big week all year, but his floor in PPR remains usable because of his solid target share and low aDOT leading to high percentage looks. He’s a low upside WR3, and deserves to be bumped to WR4 range in standard leagues. His weekly 5-50 projection is usable, but not extremely exciting. Antonio Callaway (downgrade) didn’t move the needle much in his return, and isn’t a must own at this point because of the lack of downfield throwing in this offense.
RB Breakdown
One week after steamrolling the Ravens defense on the ground, Nick Chubb wasn’t able to get going in a blowout loss to the Niners last week. The volume is still there, and he’s a threat to take it to the house on any given play, so he needs to be in all lineups this week. A bigger role in the passing game would be a boon to his value, so hopefully Freddie Kitchens can find creative ways to get perhaps his most talented player the ball on Sunday.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Browns 21

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Texans ATS: 3-2-0 Chiefs ATS: 3-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Texans 25.25 Chiefs 29.75

Texans

Opp (KC) Pass DVOA: #8
Opp (KC) Run DVOA: #30
Injuries to Watch DEF (KC): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Kenny Still (limited)
Key WCB matchups: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Breshaud Breeland (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): DeAndre Hopkins (28%) Will Fuller (24%) Keke Coutee (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Carlos Hyde (64%, 21, 1) Duke Johnson (40%, 10, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week’s fantasy bonanza against the Falcons featured a massive game from Deshaun Watson (upgrade). KC has actually been stingy against QBs at home this year, but there’s no reason to view Watson as anything other than a top-3 QB play in the week’s highest projected scoring game. DeAndre Hopkins was unable to get in on the TD fun last week, but still finished with a respectable 88 yards on seven catches. He’s simply too talented to be held down for long, and has dusted more talented CBs than Breeland with ease over the years. He remains a top 10 WR play, and this is an ideal week for him to bust back onto the scene. Will Fuller (upgrade) went absolutely nuclear last week, and probably sent owners who benched him into therapy. There is no sure thing with a boom or bust player like Fuller, but in a shootout with Hopkins drawing likely shadow coverage, Fuller is set up beautifully to back up last week’s performance. He has to be in all lineups. Keke Coutee showed a little more last week, but is still only a stash at this point in case of injury to Hopkins or Fuller, not someone you can plug into your lineup.
RB Breakdown
This is one of the more frustrating backfields from a fantasy perspective, as either Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard) or Duke Johnson would be borderline RB1s if given a full workload, but neither is getting the volume necessary for big lines. Hyde is the better bet for a rushing TD, and is likely to get a solid volume of carries in the first half while the Texans try to keep Mahomes and company off the field. That plan could fall apart quickly, but Hyde’s floor is decent in standard leagues. DJ has drawn only 7 targets total over the past 3 weeks, and just isn’t getting the volume to be a worthwhile play. There is hope he’ll be used more in negative game script in a high scoring game, but it would take a major leap of faith to start him. Consider Hyde an RB2/3, with a bump in standard leagues, and Duke an RB4 with upside for a big play or two.

Chiefs

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (KC): OL Eric Fisher (DNP), OL Andrew Wylie (DNP), WR Sammy Watkins (DNP), WR Tyreek Hill (limited), Patrick Mahomes (limited)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Sammy Watkins (24%) Travis Kelce (22%) Demarcus Robinson (14%) Damien Williams (13%) Mecole Hardman (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Damien Williams (56%, 12, 4) Lesean McCoy (22%, 2, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
There was some concern that Patrick Mahomes would be limited this week after injuring his ankle last week, but he has been clear that the issue won’t stop him from being at his best on Sunday. He’s an easy top-3 QB. Tyreek Hill may have an opportunity to return this week after logging two limited practices, so keep a close eye on his status heading into the weekend. Houston held up better than the stats showed against Matt Ryan last week, but would be absolutely no match for one of the better QB-WR duos in the league, assuming health. Sammy Watkins was a DNP on Thursday with a hammy issue, and his status looks to be a legitimate concern. If Hill is unable to return and Watkins can’t play, Byron Pringle would get in the mix in 3 wide sets next to Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman. All three would be in play as WR3’s in this matchup if Hill and Watkins are out, but Robinson is probably the best bet if Hill or Watkins do play, considering his target share. Travis Kelce (upgrade) will need to step up in Watkins can’t play, so look for him to again have a big role and put up top-3 TE numbers.
RB Breakdown
One of the messier backfields so far this year surprisingly got a lot more clear when Damien Williams returned to the lineup last week. He immediately returned to starter status, receiving 12 touches to Lesean McCoy’s 2 touches, and Darrel Williams’ 0 touches. Because Damien is used so frequently in the passing game, his floor should be that of a decent RB2, especially in PPR leagues. His ceiling in a projected shootout like this is top-10, so he should be in all lineups barring a late injury setback. McCoy could get a few more touches this week, but likely needs to be benched, and Darrel Williams becomes just a handcuff for Damien owners. Damien may just be able to pay off for patient owners who were able to survive his early season injury.
Score Prediction: Texans 35, Chiefs 34

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Saints ATS: 3-2-0 Jaguars ATS: 3-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Saints 22.25 Jaguars 21.25

Saints

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #32
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): CB Jalen Ramsey (Q) CB D.J. Hayden (Q) S Ronnie Harrison (Q) DE Lerentee McCray (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): QB Drew Brees (OUT) WR Tre’quan Smith (OUT) RB Alvin Kamara (Q, expected to play)
Key WCB matchups: Michael Thomas vs. Jalen Ramsey (Q-Back) (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Michael Thomas (32%) Alvin Kamara (18%) Ted Ginn (14%) Jared Cook (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Alvin Kamara (67%, 22, 7) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Teddy ‘Checkdown’ Bridgewater exploded last week against a poor Tampa secondary, throwing for 314 yards with 4 scores. Even with the breakout week, he’s no more than a 2QB league play or a one week streamer in good matchups. Michael Thomas (upgrade) has not slowed down in the absence of Drew Brees and it appears he’s a matchup proof WR1 moving forward, just keep in mind there may be some bumps along the way with Bridgewater at the controls. It appears that CB Jalen Ramsey is truly questionable to play (Jag’s owner Shahid Khan has said he’ll play, grain of salt), and his absence would be a huge upgrade to Thomas’ outlook. Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) was unable to return with an injury last week and Ted Ginn found his way into the endzone with a long score, but none of the peripheral pass catchers should be considered. Jared Cook finally showed up, posting 4-41-1 last week. He can be considered a low-end TE1 in a mediocre matchup, just remember his floor is scary low.
RB Breakdown
Alvin Kamara has popped up on the injury report late in the week which is never a good sign. He’s fully expected to play, but owners should grab Latavius Murray as an insurance policy. The matchup for the Saints running game is as optimal as they come, Jacksonville ranks dead last in Run DVOA and is giving up 23.1 FPPG to running backs. Kamara is in the mix for the overall RB1 this week.

Jaguars

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): DE Trey Hendrickson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): TE James O’Shaughnessy (OUT for year)
Key WCB matchups: D.J. Chark vs. Marshon Lattimore (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): D.J. Chark (21%) Dede Westbrook (21%) Leonard Fournette (17%) Chris Conley (13%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Leonard Fournette (93%, 27, 7) Ryquell Armstead (7%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Rookie mistakes cost Gardner Minshew (upgrade) last week as he lost 3 fumbles, but he still gave his team a chance to win in a back and forth battle with the Panthers. Minshew has been as consistent as they come at the QB position, he has averaged 17.8 FPPG and has yet to score less than 16 fantasy points since taking over as the starter. If Minshew puts up a big week against a solid NO defense, he will likely be impossible to keep out of lineups. Consider him a back-end QB1 against the Saints middle of the road defense - they are giving up 23.7 FPPG to quarterbacks, third worst. D.J. Chark continued his impressive breakout, showing out with 8-164-2 last week. He can’t be denied a spot in your lineup due to upside, even with a date against Marshon Lattimore who just held Mike Evans to a goose egg, consider him a WR2 this week. Another good week and he may be pushing into the WR1 ranks. If Lattimore does indeed shadow Chark, then Dede Westbrook would draw the better matchup, going against SCB P.J. Williams. Consider him an upside WR3. Chris Conley isn’t seeing enough volume to be a consistent option in fantasy and is best left on the wire. The Saints secondary has been exploitable this season, giving up 28.6 FPPG to wideouts. Continue to fade Jacksonville’s tight ends, but keep an eye on Geoff Swaim. He may assume some volume with fellow tight end James O’Shaughnessy announced out for the year with an ACL tear.
RB Breakdown
Leonard Fournette has received the second most touches (115) so far this season, only behind superhuman Christian McCaffery (136). The matchup on paper isn’t ideal, NO is only giving up 14 FPPG to running backs. However, Fournette’s volume provides him a safe floor and he should be in all lineups.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Saints 21

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Eagles ATS: 2-3-0 Vikings ATS: 3-2-0
Projected Team Totals: Eagles 20.5 Vikings 23.5

Eagles

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): LB Ben Gedeon (DNP) CB Mackensie Alexander (limited)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): WR Desean Jackson (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: Alshon Jeffery vs. Xavier Rhodes (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Zach Ertz (25%) Alshon Jeffery (25%) Desean Jackson (23%) Nelson Agholor (18%) Miles Sanders (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Jordan Howard (43%, 13, 4) Miles Sanders (43%, 13, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The most valuable player to the Eagles last week was wearing a Jets jersey, and his name is Luke Falk. He allowed the Eagles D to turn two mistakes into TDs, and was unable to put anything together on offense. This meant that none of the Philly weapons on offense needed to do much to win, so Carson Wentz ended with a slightly disappointing day. His matchup this week is significantly tougher against a defense that has given up the 8th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and ranks as a top 10 defense in both pass and run DVOA. He is still a solid QB1 option. Alshon Jeffery (upgrade standard) is back to full health and this week goes up against Xavier Rhodes, who has been burned by Jeffery in past matchups (Rotoworld). This isn’t a shy away matchup for either Wentz or Jeffery, and because the Eagles have a strong run defense, the Vikings strategy to control the game on the ground may not be as successful. This feels like a game where Jeffery hits the end zone. Zach Ertz remains a reliable weekly top-3 TE due to target share and his connection with Wentz is in fine form. Nelson Agholor (drop) likely only has one week left of receiving a decent target share with DJax possibly returning next week, so he can be dropped for someone with better ROS outlook. He has the potential to sneak into the endzone this week, but his floor is that of a 0 catch 0 yard performance. Wentz is a back end QB1 this week, and Jeffery is right on the edge of a top-20 ranking at WR.
RB Breakdown
The Eagles have employed an RBBC so far this year, and in Week 5 found the split between Jordan Howard (downgrade PPR) and Miles Sanders to be almost exactly equal. Howard is getting the more valuable redzone carries, so his TD upside put his at the back end of the RB2 rankings. Sanders hasn’t been extremely efficient with his carries, and isn’t being used in the passing game as much as some had projected, but his four catches in Week 5 were encouraging. Coach Doug Pederson has said the Eagles will continue to ride the hot hand, and that appears to be Howard at the moment. Both can be used in the flex spot, but Howard is a safer option because of his tendency to end up in the end zone the past weeks (5 in last 3 games).

Vikings

Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI): CB Orlando Scandrick (DNP, illness)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): OL Josh Kline (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Adam Thielen (24%) Dalvin Cook (19%) Stefon Diggs (18%) Kyle Rudolph (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Dalvin Cook (66%, 27, 6) Alexander Mattison (23%, 7, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Vikings passing game finally got up and running a bit last week, and Kirk Cousins (upgrade) finished with his best game of the season. On paper, this looks like a matchup to exploit through the air, as the Eagles are much more vulnerable there than on the ground, but it remains to be seen if OC Kevin Stefanski will adjust his gameplan at all. Cousins can be looked at in 2QB leagues, but still isn’t sniffing QB1 status until we see a consistent uptick in passing volume. He makes for an intriguing streamer this week, however. Adam Thielen has been Cousins’ preferred target the past few weeks, and has gotten his target share up close to 25%. While he still isn’t producing like the WR1 he was drafted to be, this week again sets up well for him to put up solid numbers. He should be in all lineups and can be counted on for WR2 numbers. Stefon Diggs (upgrade) is a slightly more risky proposition. He currently has a smaller target share than his starting RB, and has only one game over 50 yards receiving. While it’s tough to bench a player of Diggs’ talent, owners are likely extremely frustrated with his production so far. This feels like a get right matchup against the Eagles burnable secondary so we recommend you start him universally. Keep the faith for this week. Kyle Rudolph (drop) currently has a lower target share than his backup Irv Smith which tells the story of his fantasy irrelevance. If you’ve been holding this long, it’s time to let go.
RB Breakdown
Even in an extremely tough matchup this week, Dalvin Cook remains a top-3 RB play in all formats. He has shown his floor even in a game the Vikings are losing (Week 4 vs. CHI) to be 15+ points, so he is a clear auto-start. There may be some efficiency struggles on the ground due to Philly’s stout front seven, but he will bust at least one big play, and his involvement in the passing game keeps him elite even in the event the Eagles get out to a big lead. Alexander Mattison (stash) remains one of the league’s best handcuffs, so he should be universally owned. If you own Mattison but not Cook, consider seeing what you can pry from the Cook owner over the next few weeks.
Score Prediction: Eagles 21, Vikings 17

Washington Redskins (-4) at Miami Dolphins

Redskins ATS: 1-4-0 Dolphins ATS: 0-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Redskins 18.75 Dolphins 22.25

Redskins

Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): CB Xavien Howard (P) CB Johnson Bademosi (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (WSH): TE Jordan Reed (OUT) TE Vernon Davis (Q) G Wes Martin (Q) LT Donald Penn (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Terry McLaurin vs. Xavien Howard (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Terry McLaurin (21%) Chris Thompson (20%) Paul Richardson (15%) Trey Quinn (16%) Vernon Davis (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 5: Chris Thompson (54%, 9, 7) Adrian Peterson (27%, 7, 0) Wendall Smallwood (19%, 6, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Interim coach Bill Callahan has yet to name a starter at quarterback, but all indications point to Case Keenum being under center this week. He’s not an option in fantasy, but his return is great news for Terry McLaurin who seems to be recovered from a hamstring injury. The bad news is that ‘F1’ McLaurin will be facing off against the Dolphins best player, CB Xavien Howard. Nevertheless, McLaurin has earned must start status as a WR2 and he’ll be facing the worst defense in the NFL. Fire him up. Paul Richardson with a healthy McLaurin is too much of a question mark to see lineups even in the dream matchup. Vernon Davis is still making his way back from a concussion and it’s unclear if he will play. Jeremy Sprinkle and Jerome Cunningham will take over again if he is absent, but neither are recommended plays.
RB Breakdown
Owners probably scooped up Adrian Peterson (upgrade) after the news broke that interim coach Callahan thinks that not running the ball enough is Washington's main issue (it’s not). He’s got a dream matchup on deck and should be considered a RB2/3, his floor remains scary low but it seems more likely than not that he finds pay dirt in Week 6’s poop fest. Chris Thompson (upgrade PPR) continues to produce in PPR, putting up a consistent 11.7 FPPG. Thompson can be considered a back-end RB2 with an upgrade in PPR formats. This game seems like it could go either way in terms of being high scoring or low scoring, so all options are a bit risky.

Dolphins

Opp (WSH) Pass DVOA: #28
Opp (WSH) Run DVOA: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (WSH): LB Josh Harvey-Clemons (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Preston Williams (22%) DeVante Parker (18%) Kenyan Drake (15%) Jakeem Grant (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 4: Kenyan Drake (57%, 15, 6) Mark Walton (27%, 8, 2) Kalen Ballage (16%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Miami from an offense standpoint, and just an overall football standpoint, have been awful. Remember that when Vegas favors a home team by 3 points, that’s essentially saying that both teams are completely even. Josh Rosen isn’t a fantasy option. Preston Williams and Devante Parker can be considered this week going against Washington's dreadful secondary, but really you probably have a better option at receiver. Even in the best matchup of the year, all Miami players are an extreme risk. Put your money on teams that you know can move the ball. Albert Wilson is an intriguing DFS play against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most PPR per game to slow WRs this season (per Sports Info Solutions and Rotoworld). Don’t play a Miami tight end, you know better.
RB Breakdown
The running back rotation for Miami is an absolute mess and no running back has produced enough to see fantasy lineups. After a mistake filled start to the season, it appears that Kalen Ballage has fallen out of favor for rookie Mark Walton. If there were a surefire week to start Kenyan Drake, it seems like it would be this week. However, the Dolphins have been so putrid it seems like more risk than it’s worth. Fade the Dolphins backfield where possible.
Score Prediction: Redskins 17, Dolphins 14
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