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I'm kinda ok with MCO -> CRO Swap; a indepth personal view
EDIT: this post https://www.reddit.com/Crypto_com/comments/i2yhuz/open_letter_to_kris_from_one_of_cdcs_biggest/ from u/CryptoMines expresses my sentiments and concerns better than I could ever put into words myself. I'd say read his/her post instead. Very long post ahead, but TL;DR, I actually see this swap as a positive change, despite fearing for what it may do to my portofolio, and having mixed feelings about its consequences on CDC reputation.Before I start, for the sake of context and bias, here's my personal situation as a CDC user:
I'm just a average Joe, with a 500 MCO Jade card. I bough 50 MCO at 5,22€ in September 2019 and staked for Ruby, then bough 440 MCO at 2.47€ in March 2020 and upgraded to Jade. The total amount of MCO I own is currently 515, and everything above the 500 stake is cashback rewards.
I bought MCO exclusively for the card and bonus Earn interest benefits, and had no plans to unstake my MCO. Now with the swap, definetly won't unstake.
The MCO -> CRO conversion rates increased the fiat value of my MCO in about 1000€.
I own a decent amount of CRO, wich I bought at ~0,031€ in March 2020.
The country where I live is crypto friendly and completely crypto-tax free; I only have to pay income tax if I deposit a certain threshold of fiat in my bank.
Take all these factors into account as possible (if not major) influencers or bias on my opinions; both the emotional and economical ones. Call me a fool or a devil's advocate if you want, but keep your torches and pitchforks down. As we say here on Reddit: "Remember the human".----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Like all of you, I woke up to find this anouncement, wich came right the #[email protected] out of nowere, and gives you little to no options. Good or bad, this announcement arrived as basicly a "comply or die" choice. Emotionally, this came as both terrifying and disgusting; but rationally, I cannot blame CDC for it. Because wether we like it or not, CDC is a centralized company, and the MCO tokens were never a stock or legally binding contract; something wich pretty much every crypto company or ICO warns in their T&C and risk warnings. Not to mention the mostly unregulated status of the cryptocurrency and. I'll call this "dishonest" any day, but I cannot see it as a "scammy" since I can't see how they broke any rules or terms. A scammer would take your money/assets away, but CDC is offering you to swap it for another asset wich you can sell right away if you want. And at current price, it is still worth more or less as much fiat as MCO cost at the 5 $/€ wich was more or less the comunity standard used for calculating the card prices. And by that, I mean that the fiat value of 50/500/5000 MCO (as CRO) is actually not far from the 250/2500/25'000 $/€ that the comunity commonly used as standard when calculating the ROI and (under)valuation of MCO. So CDC is at least trying to give us the option to get (some) our money back, and not at a unfair rate. If you happened to buy MCO at a price higher than this, I can't see how that's CDC's fault, just as I don't see anyone blaming Bitcoin or Altcoins for getting them stuck at the top of the 2017 bubble burst. I read many posts in this reddit calling this a "backstab" and "betrayal" of early investors and for the people who "believed in MCO". Emotionally, I share your sentiment.But after thinking it for a while, I'd say this was actually very rewarding for early investors and long term MCO supporters. As CDC clearly sates in the swap rules; nobody is going to lose their card tier or MCO stake benefits (at least not yet), and your stake DOES NOT unstake automatically after 180 days. Actually, so far they never did unstake automatically, you had to manually unstake yourself. With this in mind, everyone who already got their cards, or at least staked MCO to reserve one, basicly got them 3-5 times cheaper than future users; and IMHO, now the $/€ price of cards feels more fair and sustainable compared to their benefits.So in a sense, everyone who supported and believed on the MCO for its utility (i.e. the card and app benefits) has been greatly rewarded with perks that they get to keep, but are now out of reach for a lot of people.Likewise, the people who believed and invested in CRO (for whatever reason), have also been rewarded, as their CRO tokens now have more utility. So either the price of CRO crashes down to around 0.05 $/€, or the people who bought MCO/CRO early or cheap are now massively benefited. But then again, so is everyone who bought or mined Bitcoin in its early days, or invested in Bitcoin at crucial points of its history... how is that unfair? Some people bought Ethereum at 1'400 $ on a mix of hopes/promises that it would continue to rise; it didn't. And even today with DeFi and ETH 2.0 ever closer, it is still far from that price. And I know what some of you are thinking: "The cards aren't avaiable in my country yet, that's why I didn't buy/stake."Well, they weren't avaiable in my country either when I staked 50 MCO. Heck, the cards weren't avaiable in anyones country when MCO started, but many people still bought it and staked it. That's exacly what "early adopter", "long supporter" and "believing in MCO" means. On the other hand, the people who invested on MCO as a speculative asset and decided to HODL and hoard MCO, hoping for its price to moon and then sell MCO at big profit, had their dreams mercilessly crushed by this swap... and good lord, I feel their pain.But this is also where I'll commit the sin of being judgemental, because IMHO, speculating on MCO never made any sense to me; MCO was a utility token, not a value token, so it should not (and could not) ever be worth more than the value of its utility. That's basicly how stablecoins and PAXG are able to stay stable; because nobody will pay more/less than the value of the asset/service they represent. Tough now that I'm looking at the new card stake tiers in CRO, I have to give credit to the MCO hodlers I just now criticised; maybe you were right all along. Unless the price of CRO crashes or corrects, I wich case, I un-rest my case. One thing I'll agree with everyone tough, is that I fell that CDC just suckerpunched it's comunity. Because even if we have no vote on its decisions (wich again, we aren't necessarily entitled to, since they are a privante and centralized business) they should/could have warned that this was in their plans well in advance; if anything to allow those who wouldn't like it to exit this train calmly. Also the CRO stake duration reset. The mandatory reset of your CRO stake for taking advantage of the early swap bonus feels like another gut-punch. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now that we got emotional feelings out of the way, here's my sentiment about how this will affect the overall CDC ecossystem. One common criticism of the sustainability of MCO was that its supply cap could never allow a large number of cards to be issued, and how could CDC keep paying the cashbacks and rebates. On the oposite corner, one of the major criticisms of the sustainability of CRO, was it's ridiculously huge supply cap and inflation caused by the gradual un-freezing and release of more CRO into the system. But now that MCO and CRO became one, it might just have made both issues more sustainable. Now the huge supply cap of CRO makes more sense, as it allows a much larger number of future users to stake for cards (at higher costs, but still). And because most card cashback is small parcels, this large supply also ensures that CDC can keep paying said cashbacks for a long time; especially since it can be semi-renewable trough the trading fees we pay in CRO. Before this, the MCO you got as cashback had no use, other than selling it for fiat or speculate on its price. But CRO can be used, at the very least, to receive a discount on trading fees. And everytime you pay trading fees in CRO or spend CRO on a Syndicate event, some of that CRO goes back to CDC, wich they can use to keep paying the cahsback/rebates. And keep in mind, the technicalities of CRO can be changed, as well as the perks and utilities it can be used for. So even if this current model doesn't fix everything (wich it probably doesn't) it can still be changed to patch problems or expand its use. Another obvious potentially positive outcome of this, is that now CDC only has to focus on 1 token, so it makes it easier to manage and drive its value. People complained that CDC was neglecting MCO over promoting CRO, but now they can focus on both services (cards/exchange) at the same time. Sure, this might not bring much advantage to the common customer, but its probably a major resource saver and optimizer at corporate levels; wich in the long term ultimately benefits its customers. Much like Ethereum is undergoing major changes to ensure its scalability, the crypto companies themselves also have to change to acommodate the growing number of users, especially as the cryptomarket and DeFi are growing and becoming more competitive. Business strategies that were once successfull became obsolete, and exchanges that once held near-monopolies had to adjust to rising competitors. There is no reason why CDC shouldn't keep up with this, or at least try to. Point is, the financial markets, crypto or otherwise, are not a status quo haven. And when something is wrong, something has to be changed, even if it costs. The very rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, wich is why we are here in the first place, is a perfect example of this, as it experiments and provides alternatives to legacy/traditional products and technologies. Was this the best solution to its current problems? Is this what will protect us as customers from a potentially unsustainable business model? I have no idea. This change ripped me too from my previous more or less relaxed status quo (the safety of the value of the CRO I bough for cheap), along with CRO late investors wich now probably fear for the devaluation of their CRO. To say nothing of the blow this represents for my trust (and I believe everyone elses trust) on CDC and its public relations. It's not what CDC did, it's how they did it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wether you actually bothered to read all I wrote or just skip everything (can't blame you), I'm eager to hear your opinions and whatever criticisms on my opinions you may have. If you just want to vent at me, you are welcome too; now you can raise your pitchforks and torches.
My Provisional List of COVID Anomalies, Red/ False Flags & Clear Indications of Scumbaggery And Scambuggery. LIHOP, MIHOP Or HOAX/SCAM? Def Not As Described. Very Much Updated Since 1st Posting. Please Let Me Know What I’ve Missed Or Add Links. Repost, Due To Strange Disappearance of 90% Of My Post.
Here’s my Top 22 list of suspicious shenanigans and red flags surrounding the COVID narrative:
The Imperial College Death data - Neil Ferguson and Gates-funded Imperial College, London Model that ‘persuaded’ Johnson and Trump to lockdown. Projected 500K deaths in UK and 2.2m deaths in US, EVEN WITH LOCKDOWN. Less than 10% accuracy but 110% alarmist, and evidence that the coding was deliberately flawed and designed to inflate numbers. Gates funding everyone involved in the staged 'debacle'.
Is worth start mining with the actual situation of the cryptocurrency market?
I've been watching the market for over 3 years now. For those years I've been a student with no money to invest, and now that I'm almost out of the university and I have some money I wanna finally start on this world. For some weeks now I've been working on a planning for building a 6 GPU mining rig, all theoretical earnings calculated with NiceHash & WhatToMine. The actual theoretical profits for this one are like 250 EU month (1.40€/day per GPU) with AMD RX 5700 , having an electricity cost of o.o79EUkWH. I've compared all the actual GPUs on the market, and that's the best one I could find in terms of ROI (I start to get profits after 1 year and 1 month). I've seen some posts talking about much better profits & less ROIs but I couldn't find a better profit for a GPU rig, maybe I'm doing something wrong! To see if the theoretical numbers are right I tested them with an RTX 2060 on my own personal computer and I had a profit of 1.20 EUR /day when the theoretical profit for that GPU was about 0.80 EUR /day. So, after all those weeks comparing, thinking about a long term Investment plan and searching for LOTS of information i conclude that it's worth spending a total of 3000 EUR into mining. Now I wanna ask you guys, with the actual situation of bitcoin (going up and up) and the difficulty raising over time...is it worth investing all that money on GPU mining right now? I'm afraid about investing the money and start to see a massive decrease in my profits, either for bitcoin going down or the difficulty going up nonstop. Also, I've not exposed all my plan, but doing it this way (mining with NiceHash and with 6 AMD RX 5700) is a nice plan or there is something with better profitability/ ROI? Maybe mining myself small cryptos and then exchange them to bitcoin, etc... All knowledge is welcomed. Btw, I'm a computer science engineer, that's why I wanna start on mining instead of trading stocks, because I know how computers work and I think that my knowledge on Pc & GPUs could help me on doing this efficiently. And sorry for my "not so good English", it's my 3rd language! Thanks all. EDIT: I could also buy the GPUs & equipment for the rig on a 2nd hand market, which would totally lower the total price of the rig, reaching ROI faster and if something goes not as expected, have less losses. Ofc buying at a 2nd hand is somehow risky but maybe worthy!
The Extons trading platform and the application have become the most desirable and preferred exchange technologies for people finding reliable, safe, and protected trade in digital currencies, as well as solution-oriented exchanges. When people began to use Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies due to their decentralized, stable, and pursuit of technological advances that could open borders and make money the emergence of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies created new boundaries. Despite the excitement created by exchanges, however, large dark areas and foreign exchanges still exist. Gluts have lost a lot of its digital assets and even platforms that are proud of their fair share of challenges and hacks that have affected traders’ confidence and their global digital currency adoption. https://preview.redd.it/cpwvjbwkw4n51.jpg?width=3319&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a10ae95e5a0ae2d3dda7b4006b7954a518a3a7fc Today the exchanges are not established any more in fast-growing markets, so I am excited to obtain an effective, secure, and transparent network, along with many trustworthy specialists in the blockchain, to face these enduring challenges. The creative platform is planned to address issues related to the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, Extons Platform. Extons Exchange. Exton is a crypto-monetary exchange site. Extons was created in June 2020 to address the disruptive weaknesses and vulnerabilities of cryptocurrency global exchange. Performance, flexibility, consistency, and defense, but new. What does the Crypto Environment Network offer? The best user interface with Exton. Users would be very pleased because they can interact seamlessly and rapidly. Extons delivers on-line customer care services 24/7, ensuring that each user’s purchases are completed efficiently and promptly. In many markets, high liquidity is a missed feature. The team uses state-of-the-art Extons technologies to develop artificial markets that conform with wall street business criteria and to build model-driven analysis focused on over 250 market parameters and 24/7 ongoing support of high liquidity. The multiple cryptocurrency support is included in Exton. Extons publishes and lists regularly high-quality cryptocurrencies around the world, which allows consumers to trade in a wide range of options for certain cryptocurrencies. https://preview.redd.it/kheqouemw4n51.jpg?width=843&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a96d8f3f675d03018a56a6bac43038b30cd07d7c Safety and stability are essential considerations for the calculation of the trade rate. In order to conduct a reliable system operation, a multi-mode configuration fulfills the conceptual IT control function of the financial sector. In order to extend the scene and provide better service to customers, the front-end and back-end team architecture and the multi-point and multi-fashion delivery implementation. Significant market or trade issues • Minimum requirement if an exchange is not scheduled. Liquidity is the main thing for trade volume. You’re not allowed to buy a thing, but you’re not going to find a vendor, or find a client. When is the trade going to take place? • Security is the main challenge in crypto world transactions. Many scandals have led users to lose their investment in the past. There is no need for society to connect and to safeguard its property. • The exchange of cryptocurrency should offer unrestricted transparency for customers, enabling customers to own and invest your investment. • It’s worthless if you miss any of your bond money. You will get income from Classical Swap or other partners, so you won’t hesitate to pick your earnings. The prices are huge, in other words. • There are possibilities for certain technological (communications) issues if consumers entrust portfolios for stock trading. It is almost impossible to reach customer service in some cases. This is the key reason why crypto transactions are technically inaccessible. How does Extons Interchange address these problems? • It is deeply disappointing to note that no exchanges take care of customers’ desires and expectations on their websites and trade on them leaves consumers dissatisfied and hopeful of more. • In order to ensure the free running of the network, Extons’ exchange has now introduced the multimode GUI, which can satisfy the technical requirements of The tracking needs of the financial sector. • Slowly listing and incorporating various content cryptocurrencies throughout the network to provide the customers with different transaction services. • EXTON Exchange guarantees customers get sufficient treatment when it delivers online customer care facilities 24 hours a day, allowing the smoothest possible execution of each purchase. Token information Exton’s got a token called, TON. The token is the TRC-20 format provided on the platform on the Ethereum blockchain token that facilitates network activities. The TONS trade tokens for purchases and other commercial activities are, however, included. Wrap up: Exton Exchange has set the standard for other cryptocurrency network exchanges with a customer service framework, a very liquid and robust operating environment that provides outstanding cryptocurrency trading experience to customers and promotes digital tokens throughout the global population. It does not, however, provide a standard trading portal but has powerful tools and services that can make user-based transfers accessible and cost-effective. The platform will concentrate on the world adoption and usage of cryptocurrencies in the global financial system and the potential of ongoing development. Website || Thisoption || Whitepaper || Telegram || Facebook || Medium Author: u/thorex25 Disclaimer This article is not meant to give commercial or any other kind of advice. It is just an informative text at all.
Gold has the highest SF 62, which means it takes 62 years of production to get current gold stock, for Ether the estimated SF is 58.5 in 2022. After the recent halving, this is 50 for Bitcoin. Important disclaimer: Numbers are rough estimates, I got the data from etherscan and Cointelegraph (see them below) and aggregated in a spreadsheet. This calculation is far from perfect, I'm not a data analyst just a random dude killing the time on Sunday, so pls bear with me. If you have any suggestions to further improve it or you have more exact numbers regarding supply, issuance, pls let me know and I will update the sheet. Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-20-issuance-will-be-2-million-a-year-at-most-says-vitalik https://etherscan.io/charts#marketData
New here and look to get the communities take on a potential leanFIRE plan. I'm Canadian so all numbers in CAD and I will have free health care for life. I've been working as an engineer for coming up on 5 years now since graduating and previously did 20 months of engineering internship as part of school in order to graduate debt free. In the last 5 years through some good investments and saving about 2/3 of my income I've accumulated about $480k of investments. I make about $100k/year after tax and spend about $2.5k/m ($30k/yr). I'll be turning 30 next August and was thinking of trying out the FIRE life for at least a couple years and then decide if I want to go back to work. I estimate I'll have approximately $600k by next August as long as the market doesn't crash. I'm thinking the investments will cover about $2000/m (4% rule) and I would work part time 2-3 days a week when I'm not travelling to make $750-$1250/m extra for $2750-$3250/m to live on. Planning to travel relatively cheaply 4-6 months a year during winter. I anticipate paying a low average tax rate of about 5-10% or less based on some calculations I've done. At this point no partnekids. Any recommendations to improve this plan or on the feasibility of it? Edit: Thanks for the input everyone. For clarification I don't own a home and the money is invested in globally diversified 80/20 (stock/bond) ETFs (60%), portfolio of US and CAD REITs that pay for my rent (30%) and a small amount of gold and bitcoin (10%).
There is a web of invisible slime that reaches out from the artificial traditions of psychological think tanks, like The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations, whose roots trace back to the Vienna Psychology Club; a web that stretches across the entire world and inserts itself into your lives in intrusive, unethical and corrupt ways. Groups are deceiving you for a dollar, for a vote, for your personal information, for your labor; for your body and soul. This deception is carried out using every screen you look at, every song offered to you, every sign on a billboard, every popular book, magazine and newspaper. If you want honest information; if you want to see past the slime, you are going to have to look hard for it. If you are just starting down your journey of being cognizant of the deception, the scope is difficult to believe but well borne out by the evidence. We all know the news is dishonest, but the common myth is that it is for the ratings and for the views. The ways in which the news is dishonest is what is really difficult for people to swallow and the “why” still very much in debate until you understand the framework by which they operate. Systemic corruption is no exception to the march of modernization; more sophisticated than ever and more capable of staying hidden to the average person. Modern day slavers control the narrative and the reason it is a spiritual conflict between good and evil is because there are a very small group of people who believe that stealing your agency/free will/consciousness lends itself to their ability to become gods, in their own right. Understanding that the elite have deep occult traditions is important, though often scoffed at. However, to advertise their power and influence, occult messages are constantly and publicly advertised back and forth between these groups. It is no theory that think tanks have studied and implemented cult behavior even going so far as to create artificial cults in which to entrap people. Faceless, emotionless, unempathetic organizations that are merely constructed of words on paper are able to impose these cult tactics on you with impunity and in secrecy. This is the heart of the problem; when it comes to an organization, company, agency, church, etc., these abstract constructs are very much not human, at all. Their existence is alien and unknown to human instincts, who assign human attributes naturally and without conscious thought. These constructs take advantage of normal, honest, empathetic individuals by mimicking empathy, not by actually being empathetic. There are more slaves, now, than ever in human history and the methods of enslaving are far more insidious than ever. Modern slavery networks and the corrupt political ecosystems that allow them to endure are the heart of mankind’s problems. If we, as a society, were able to address the corruption that keeps these networks alive, then we, as society, would solve a lot of problems surrounding organized crime, in general, not just the problem human trafficking. How do we do that? It is very simple; “Zero Trust” policies in organizations and 100% government transparency. That’s it. A great deal of time, effort and money are spent making sure these issues never hit the ballot box and are never part of the platform of a candidate you are given the option to vote for. The movies you watch are constantly reminding you of dangers that allow a select group of idiots to maintain secrecy that is undeserved and clearly wielded for uses other than helping society. Common sense solutions are not prioritized by the media and politicians. Don’t be a part of the destruction of common sense and common courtesy. Stop taking the bait. Stop taking the path of least resistance. We are all guilty, but pushing yourself to be better and do better has a ripple effect in the world around you. Being a terrible person also has a ripple effect. There are enough bad ripples. The concept of an “epiphany” is an important one; where a person’s mind changes on a physical, neurochemical level to the extent that their world view changes. The moment a person is “red pilled” is an epiphany and it is very much the concern of media and Internet shills and their manipulative overlords because they do not want people to have the realization that the system is corrupt from top to bottom and that both sides of most narratives. But, if you do have that realization, there is a plan for you; to do nothing and sit idly by as corrupt forces continue their work. When you have an epiphany, the neurochemical storm actually is a moment where you are most suggestible and most ready to be manipulated. If you manage to raise your level of awareness across multiple narratives, the system almost doesn’t need to care about you, anymore, as they have likely already moved you to inaction and made you unwilling to tell others the truth. While there is a great deal of science that goes behind manipulating people, the tradition is as old as human history, itself; it’s origins, magical from the perspective of the ancients. Whether you call mass manipulation “hypnosis,” “psychology,” “magic” or “science,” the fact of the matter is that it is there in a more constant form than ever, impossible to avoid, and invisible to those who aren’t paying attention or willing to research and think for themselves. Like the idea of dark matter, you cannot see it directly (at least, when done well), but should be able to test and compare data data in different circumstances to detect it. There are many confirmed real world examples of mass manipulation that people should be aware of, because it is very easy for people to believe that it is not happening to them. Many say that is too big of a conspiracy to keep secret; though we already see how it works with a variety of leaks, court cases and plenty of proven real world examples. If you encounter this argument, you have probably encountered someone who is hypnotized into misunderstanding the word “conspiracy”, where a group of people work together to commit crimes. One easy way to create a consensus across media organizations is to enter into “non disparagement agreements.” For example, HBO entered into a non-disparagement agreement with Michael Jackson’s attorneys. A recent court case established that the agreement remains in effect even after his death. This means, with the right law firm, someone can enter into many unknown non disparagement agreements with many companies. It sounds weird, but this is like black magic. Occult literally means hidden. Secret words have been spelled out that the public is not aware of, but creates the illusion that there is a consensus about any given personality; like say a politician, a singer or an actor. A web of mutual non-disparagement agreements works as a form of forensic interruption, preventing people being held accountable for crimes. Between non-disclosure agreements and non-disparagement agreements, there is a web of protected relationships where people, products and even governments are not allowed to be discussed in a negative light. This has created an extortion racket by the media. If you don’t buy in, then you are fair game. Not only are you fair game, they will harass you until you buy in because they literally need something to do due to their lack of ability to speak negatively about their cohorts. When you consider the nexus between government and media, the problem is compounded when you introduce the concept of keeping things secret for national security. Policy has created the circumstance that corporate and secret government interests are intertwined and they become aligned in keeping each other out of jail. While a lot of this is managed at upper echelons, the system is merely taking advantage of human nature, which is why the government and media should be operating from a “zero trust” standpoint and not the other way around, like it currently is. There is and never has been any reason to trust the media or the government, and doubly so when their interests are aligned. There are many proven real world examples. The first ingredient to modern mass hypnosis is saturation and repetition. Your first clue that the message is artificial is when many corporate, government and astroturfing battlegrounds all agree on the same thing. Not only is a contrived message oft-repeated, it is generally very polarized; where, due to cognitive bias, it is designed for consumption by both sides with the ideal result of making one side feel schadenfreude and the other side feel outrage and injustice. Just being aware of this polarization tactic and allowing yourself to have more nuanced opinions that the black or white ones offered up to you, is incredibly effective at not taking the bait. “Systems Psychodynamics” is the name of the psychological framework that is used to monitor and control people, primarily based on attacking and reforming “basic assumptions.” By controlling everyone’s basic assumptions using the repetitious push and pulling narratives, the levers of political and monetary behavior are controlled through “influencers.” This framework reads like it was written for social media, though, in reality, it is much older; social media merely enhances the effects. One easy way to detect the agenda and the widespreadness of the corruption, without even knowing the finer points of mass persuasion techniques, is to see what is censored. Generally, the astroturfing campaigns seek to drown out good information that is contrary to their cause. However, when you find some information that is very damaging to their narrative, especially before they’ve scripted a response, it gets removed. Eventually, they will write up a standard response, but this takes time. For this reason, I incubate a number of censorship experiments across multiple sites. While people easily get away with discussions about aliens and flat earth, conversations about modern slavery are shut down everywhere; particularly if you call people to action in reporting crimes. Sites that purport to be “free speech” will not allow you to openly hunt human traffickers and the “system” seems to hate vigilantes more than anything. Most recently, the censorship around Covid “truth” is heaviest. Censorship of doctors has been swift and totalitarian. However, because I see generally what gets censored, first, I knew this was all a scam from Day One. The first SARS COV 2 tests, up until March, were merely SARS COV tests. Very literally. The SARS COV 2 tests hadn’t been invented, yet. Explaining that the body produces the CR3022 protein (what the antibody tests look for) for all human affecting coronaviruses was heavily censored. Even now, explaining this basic fact that exposes why a great deal of testing is fraudulent, is struck from both Right and Left astroturfing machines. If you really want a rabbit hole to dig through, search the coronavirus pandemic bonds that matured March 23, 2020. Prior to that, the name “Eric Ciaramella” was one of the most censored things on the Internet. Censored, in that the information was deleted immediately. The motivations behind these multi-site censorship campaigns should have everyone concerned because it is consistently in support of Democrat and RINO narratives, politically, and always in favor of human traffickers. However, even the Q Anon group will censor you with a variety of tactics if you speak of certain things in the wrong way or mention the possibility that they, themselves, are part of an astroturfing outfit. Fox News still won’t give a fair shake to the Uranium One/Skolkovo/Troika Laundromat evidence and it betrays them as controlled opposition/ a limited hangout, since it would destroy the Democrats. Any “side” of politics you can be on, whether it’s fringe or mainstream or Right or Left, every group has limits to what truthful statements they will tolerate and the nexus where all the groups meet in alignment is when it comes to discussing modern day slavery and who is profiting from it. Simply removing content is very overt and complaining about it to those who do it will usually earn you a mute or a ban. Running a “brand” across multiple platforms requires conformity to social media company ideologies, or you will be subjected to any and all means of censorship. Covert means of censorship are also rampant. Upvotes.Club offers a service that not only promotes the content you want, but downvotes topics that run contrary to your marketing strategy. This is one of many astroturfing services. Shadow banning is another tactic that can be difficult to detect. “Deboosting” is common in social platforms, as well, where the number or type of viewers who see your content is limited. This breeds “echo chambers” across multiple Internet communities. Out of frustration and curiosity, I began experimenting with different ways to engage with the shill communities. Very often, their own tactics work quite well against them. Years into this push and pull with these groups, my best strategy has evolved to monitor them as they often telegraph economic opportunity and subvert them from behind a layer of complexity a shill script can’t understand and is unable to deal with. When I noticed Bitcoin was being heavily shilled, I saw a signal to buy early. This was the catalyst for rethinking everything I was doing. When I noticed that there was blatant fraud in the media about SARS COV 2, I noticed the exact same behavior I had seen before when I struck it rich with Bitcoin. I even went to my audience and said on a podcast, “the market will be back to normal levels in a month… six tops.” I bought the dip, knowing the numbers were fully overblown. My $TSLA experience has been quite enriching. Every day, in the stock trading communities, shills are looking to pump and dump stocks and groups are spending money to illegally manipulate the stock market. However, you can use different ways to monitor social media to detect potential pumps and dumps. If you start seeing the same thing show up on different platforms, among different known shill groups, you know someone has paid for a pump and dump. So long as you have a set, small percentage to gain, you can avoid the pitfalls and get out early. Right now, that is my “edge”, in trading. I don’t feel nearly as obligated to spread the truth to others, since I’ve realigned my priorities. These technological tools for being the first to news items, to new evidence, finding new ways of searching existing information; not only does it help you navigate past censorship, you can use it to make more “realistic” decisions about the world around you. Politics and the stock market are inextricably linked. To be informed on one, is to be informed on the other. When you begin to pull in more intersecting information, like “systems psychodynamics” and overall agendas of differing groups, you are expanding your knowledge and your consciousness so that your intellect has more of a real world impact. When you delve deep into ancient traditions, you will, eventually, learn of alchemy; usually the pursuit of endless wealth or the search for immortality. Day trading well is, essentially, modern day alchemy in that you are making money from thin air. Musicians transform what is in their mind into a product that can be sold. There are many forms of alchemy. Bitcoin is another great example of modern day alchemy. In my humble opinion, augmenting your own well-disciplined intellect with good computing practices can make you a modern day wizard; an alchemist. Many people were saturated with pro-Nihilism marketing and ate it up with their Cheerio's while listening to Nirvana CDs. A couple of generations of nihilists later, combined with portable dopamine trap screens from waking moment 'til slumber, and people are literally having a hard time finding a reason to get out of bed in the morning. Being a successful trader heals a lot of the damage from that consumerist propaganda and forces people to interact with the natural causes of their decision making. The Market is not racist. The only color you have to worry about is green. The market does not celebrate your success or mock your failures. The opinions of critics do not count. The Market does not care about your feelings or anyone else's. All people enter the Market equal and there are no participation awards. There is no busywork. Your test scores do not matter. All that matters are results and that type of black and white simplicity makes the Market the most sane aspect of society, right now. Though most of the obvious stocks have since reached preCovid normality, it has been easy to make money by sorting every ticker by Feb 20 high, then subtract the current price, calculate potential gain when they return to their old price and pick ones that had a high probability of doubling or tripling your money the fastest. I understand it seems tangential, the stock market angle, but when you are routinely called a “conspiracy theorist”, it helps to be as realistic as possible and there is no better way to prove your theories than by putting your money where your mouth is. The stock market is a vessel from which normal people (”retail investors”) are scammed constantly, for the benefit of institutional investors. The Epsteins, the Soros’, all the political elite; they are playing in this realm and they graduated to using AI and machine learning to augment their schemes years ago. In order to understand the elite, you have to understand their playground. In order to compete in the information age, you need to augment your intellect using technology. If nothing else, use it to be meticulously organized. If you get organized in only one aspect of your life, make it your finances. The Democratic party uses the ADA AI, named from Ada Lovelace and a competitor, in 2016, Cambridge Analytica, was used by the Republicans. These AI’s are augmented with databases and metadatabases of everything that can be served up by a social media APIs. They know everything about you and they don’t spy on your microphones, cameras and screenshots to catch you at crimes; they are spying on you in order to better teach you how to vote and spend money. Combined with an army of astroturfing accounts, these AIs are quite good at manipulating what shows up on your screen. This type of censorship is bad for stock traders, researchers and people who just want a few honest answers. In order to compete a bit better, I have taken to making by own custom feeds and scrapers, so that I can database text of many sites and subjects, which then is far easier to search, but is also able to sort information so that I can find what I am looking for in a few minutes, as opposed to trawling the same channels or search engines everyday and learning relatively little. I am really on the hunt for stuff that is voted up or noticed organically and is in that stage before it catches on by a shill group. I incorporate a lot of OSINT tools and I like to collect leaked databases to be able to compare information. It is very helpful to use machine learning to detect what I need as quickly as possible and serve it up to me, first. Applying my own knowledge of how the astroturfing system works, I have developed strategies to target influencers with new and original information and I can quickly and easily get it to them without influencers even knowing I am the source of the information. I just have to identify the correct group to get my message out, then make sure their leaders see the information, who will naturally post it on their own and their followers will naturally vote information up for free. I don’t do this with stocks (questionable legality), but I do feed good news to the right people and I exert a lot less effort to get ideas across all platforms than I used to. No astroturfing groups are into anti-consumerist ideas. “Hydro Homies” and “No Fap” are two great examples that recommend people be anti-consumerist and avoid specific products. As a result, these movements, despite being healthy and productive, have a lot of trouble gaining traction. There is no mainstream push for a truly healthy agenda. All contrived movements must pay to astroturf and shill because, otherwise, embracing their products and ideas is contrary to your well being. No shill group is working to save you money or trying to convince you to make the right decision, for yourself. There are certain messages almost no one will add social media velocity to; detailed instructions on how to report crimes or catch pedophiles, leaked information that hurts both sides of the political spectrum, anything a little too technical or complex. There are already efforts to make hijack the anti-human trafficking crowd. They will be tricked into meaningless pursuits that have no real world consequence. Money will be raised and wasted. News article after news article will be pumped out detailing how everyone is supporting victims and raising awareness. Meanwhile; nobody of consequence is arrested. The mining industry will continue to use forced labor and the networks they use will also feed the sex slavery and domestic servitude and the systemic policies and corrupt politicians will continue on unimpeded. Let’s hope that changes, but it will require a lot more people getting off their asses and getting involved. It will require a lot more people speaking up outside of their echo chambers. Ready. Set. Go.
Author: Gamals Ahmed, CoinEx Business Ambassador Financial risk management is one of the most controversial topics in trading. Traders want to reduce the risk and potential loss, but on the other hand, these traders also want at the same time to get the best profits. It is known that in order to obtain greater returns, you also need to take greater risks. Some may consider trading an entertaining and difficult pastime, but everyone should be aware that the most important aspect of trading is risk management.
What are the different risk management techniques used in trading?
Long-term trading Stock market traders use historical data to make long-term strategic business decisions. The long-term cryptocurrency strategy depends on current activity, and you will be more inclined towards hopeful information rather than reliable information and more suitable for cryptocurrencies. Short term trading Short-term traders benefit from the volatile cryptocurrency market by using swing trading when the price differs in short bursts of movement. Technical Analysis Technical analysis of cryptocurrencies requires research into project that affect the market based on price and volume data available through analytical technology. Fundamental analysis Traders often look to blogs and information sites and study the whitepaper for cryptocurrencies or cryptocurrency community forums. https://preview.redd.it/bcdhftsba0351.jpg?width=864&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4763c03a2d5ecaa082cfa78ed3693c0d7e1186e0
Why should you stick to risk management?
You can get a series of successful deals based on good luck. You can also get a series of bad deals that depend on luck and feel. It even happens to successful, experienced professional traders that they lose 10 trades in a row. Without risk management, this could result in your capital loss and final exit. The most important goal in trading is to stay in the market and preserve your capital. As long as you are in the market, you can recoup your losses. If you lose 10% of your capital, this means that you must make a profit of 11.1%. If your budget is $ 1,000 and you lose $ 100 ( ~ to 10%), you’ll have $ 900. $ 100 is 11.1% of that. This means that losses hurt more than profits of the same size. This becomes worse with more losses. If you lose 50% of your capital, you must double your money to offset the loss. The new trader’s rule for managing at most risk is 1% of the capital for each trade. If you lose 10 deals in a row (which is unlikely) and lose 1% each time, how much do you have left? Still 90%. If you risk 2%, what remains for you after losing 10 recurring deals is only 81% of the capital. You have to make 11% or 23% profit to make up for it. Even if you lose 100 deals in a row with a 1% risk management plan in hand, you still have 37%. A seasoned trader may use 2% occasionally. A trader who risks 10% disappears quickly. You might be wondering, if I decide to follow risk management with just 1% in the deal, does this mean that I can only invest 1% of the capital for each transaction? No. This is the ratio for determining the maximum acceptance of a loss from a single trade. Initial decisions I assume you know your total capital, no matter if it is $ 100 or $ 1 billion. The main point is to have a specific budget available. Do not use borrowed money, which you have to repay in a deadline. Do not use money you need in the future. If you are emotionally attached to this money, these emotions will make you feel stressed. You want to be a successful trader and not an emotional gambler. The next step is to find a deal. It does not matter if you do this daily and trade specific currencies or not. You have tools like fundamental and technical analysis to research deals. Immediately before entering into a trade, there is a basic calculation that must be performed: Determine the entry price, stop loss and the amount of risk. Well, the risk is easy. We already know that we will choose 1%. The entry price is also easy. It could be the current market price or the limit you set for your order. Now, stop loss: it is necessary to know and set the stop loss before entering a trade. Another rule is that you are not allowed to adjust your stop loss afterward to accept more losses. How to determine the stop loss? Technical analysis is the only method available regardless of the random selection of something. Perhaps you will use something like “beyond the next support level (or resistance)” or “the other side of the trend line we just broke”. Now we have the four components of risk management: budget size, entry price, stop-loss and risk-taking. The time to use the calculator. The size of the deal Now to find out how much money you are allowed to invest in this deal. Transaction Size = (Risk Size * Budget) / (Entry Price — Stop Loss) For example: If you have a budget $ 1,000 and want to buy bitcoin for $ 2,300 with a stop loss $ 2,200 and a risk 1%, then this means: The deal size is (1% * $ 1,000) / ($ 2,300 — $ 2,200) ) = $ 10 / $ 100 = 0.1. So in this example you are allowed to buy 0.1 Bitcoin units for this trade. You must make this account before every trade! Even if you do, you will encounter errors sometimes, but risk management will help you to preserve your capital. Courage will shout at you to take greater risks, because you are very sure of your prediction. But always remember, to succeed you must stick to your stop loss and strategy. Setting goals Before entering into a position, you must also have a target price in mind for sale. The risk must be doubled. If you risk 1% of your capital, the potential profit must be 2–3% of your capital. If the goal for profit is equal to stopping the loss, you must stay away from trading and ignore this deal. This does not mean that you will always reach or lose your goal. You are allowed to manually track stop loss or exit early. However, the goal should be possible given the volatility of the market you are in. Level of risk Well, I got away from the plan and ignored your strategy. The deal entered without due diligence. whatever. How much risk did you just take? You know your budget, entry price and deal size. You must quickly define the next stop loss. How much risk? Risk = (Trade Size * (Entry Point — Stop Loss)) / Budget For example, I bought 0.3 bitcoin at a price of $ 2,500 with a budget of $ 1,000. Stop loss is $ 2345. This means that the risk is (0.3 * 155 dollars) / 1000 dollars = 4.64%. Risk reduction Now for some good things that can’t be used practically, however, the concepts are sound. Why the reader may ask 1% risk? Is it just a rule? Is there an ideal ratio? In theory, yes there is. We can use the Kelly standard. The formula is simple: Risk = p-((1-p)/r Getting those variables P and R is difficult. You have to know your profit rate, which is the number of times your goals are reached. You also need a profit-to-loss ratio, which is the average profit per trade. For example, if you earn 47% of the time and 117% of your average capital, then the ideal risk is 1.7%. In practice you don’t really know this specifically or variables p and r, so I recommend sticking to 1% as the basis for risk management.
Risk Management Tips for Cryptocurrency Investment
1. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. However, this error is very common, especially among Crypto traders who are just starting out. The Crypto market is very difficult to predict, so traders who want to invest more than they can actually put themselves at risk of market and losing their money. 2. Don’t trade by all of your capital at same time. Anything can affect the Crypto market. The smallest news can affect the price of a particular currency in a negative or positive way. Instead of trade with everything you own”, it is better to follow a more moderate path and trade reasonable amounts of your capital. 3. Improve your risk management performance Fortunately, there are several ways to help avoiding these mistakes and avoid loss. You must have a well-tested trading plan that includes all the details of managing financial risk in Crypto. The trading plan should be practical — and you should be able to follow its steps easily. Experts recommend that it is better to focus on high-probability deals. Crypto trading involves a high degree of risk, so it is essential that you be disciplined in all of your financial transactions. You should also be able to pay extra attention to your past mistakes, and practice trading activities in a demo account first. The time and effort you spend in creating a trading plan is often considered a major investment that helps you achieve a profit-able future. 4. Control your emotions and risk management As a Crypto trader, you need to be able to control your feelings and emotions towards your open, future, and closed positions as well! If you cannot control your feelings, you will not be able to reach a position where you can make the profits you want to trade. Market sentiment can often trap traders in volatile positions in the market. This is one of the most common market risk for Crypto trading. Those with stubborn nature tend not to do well in the Crypto market. These types of traders tend to wait too long to exit the trade. When a trader realizes his mistake, he must leave the market as soon as possible, to take the least possible loss. Waiting too long can cause you to lose a large portion of your capital. Once you exit the deal, you need to be patient and re-enter the market when it presents a real new opportunity. 5. Basic concepts in risk management To reduce the financial market risk for trading Cryptocurrency, you will need to remember some of the basic points mentioned below: The evaluation of money changes, and often affects companies and individuals participating in global stock exchanges. Liabilities, assets and fund flows are affected by changes in exchange rates. By trading small amounts of your capital and monitoring market movements, you will be able to see these concepts take hold throughout your daily trading sessions. 6. Important tips for developing a risk management plan model Below is a series of simple tips that you can consider and include in the financial risk management plan model when trading Crypto, which may help you reduce trading losses associated with market risks: 1. Stop losses Trading without a stop loss is like driving a car without braking at full speed — it won’t end well. Likewise, once your stop loss is set, you should never lower it. There is no point in having a safety net in place if you are not going to use it properly. The goal of stopping a loss is to limit the size of the potential loss in order to be able to in-crease your total profits, and what needs to be done on the other side is to set profit-taking orders as well! 2. Do not link all your investments in one place This applies to all types of investment, and Crypto is no exception. Crypto should be part of your portfolio, but not complete it. Another way that you can expand it is to invest or trade more than one crypto coin. 3. The general trend is your companion You may have made the decision to be a long-term trader, with plans to keep these deals for an extended period of time. However, regardless of the deal you ultimately decided to take, you should not resist current market trends or movements. There will always be strong players in the market, and the best way to keep up with them is to absorb such changes and follow the general trend, and change your strategies to reflect this. 4. Keep teaching yourself The best way to learn the financial risk management system in Crypto and become an efficient and successful Crypto trader is to know how the market works. However, as we mentioned earlier, the market is constantly changing, so if you want to stay ahead of your game, you have to be always ready to learn new things and update yourself about market changes. 5. Use the plug-in To advance in Crypto, you may want to use some trading software that can help you settle your choices. However, these systems are not ideal, so it is best to use them as a consulting tool, and something to refer to rather than use as a basis for making business decisions. 6. Limiting the use of leverage It can be very tempting to use leverage to make big profits. However, this can make it easy for you to lose a huge portion of your capital, too. So do not support the use of giant leverage. All it takes is one quick change in market direction, and you can easily delete your entire trading account. Crypto risk management is not difficult to understand and implement. But in order to invest in any financial instruments, whether it be bonds, exchange-traded funds, stocks, contracts for the difference in prices or cryptocurrencies, you need to acquire advanced knowledge in the field of risk management. The hard part is having enough self-discipline to adhere to the rules of this risk management plan as the market moves against your positions. The content is for opinion sharing only and should not be relied upon to make any investment decisions.
Weekly Review: Bitcoin price is targeting $ 25,000, PayPal is offering its 300 million customers BTC to buy?
https://preview.redd.it/co0tqa88b6d51.png?width=429&format=png&auto=webp&s=e41cd67a0765a375d51d2e05af38e68d9c9ed72d The silence in the Bitcoin price has been going on for 2-3 months after the digital gold initially recovered well from the slump in the course of the Corona crisis. Volatility is currently at a very low level that has not been seen since November 2018. As unspectacular as the current consolidation phase is, on the other hand, you have to recognize that the Bitcoin price has nevertheless increased by 29% since the beginning of the year. So far, BTC has beaten many other asset classes. But is there possibly more? The well-known crypto-analyst PlanB now calculates on Twitter that the current BTC price, measured by the correlation of the asset with the S&P 500 stock index, should actually be a proud $ 25,000. You can find out how he came up with this claim in this article.
YFI rate explodes - previously unknown cryptocurrency rises by over 14,000% in just a few days
The little-known cryptocurrency, YFI, is making many in the industry angry about why they're only now hearing about it. Because just a few days after its introduction, it has already increased by over 14,000%. The Santiment cryptanalysis platform recently analyzed the performance of YFI, the governance token of the decentralized finance (Defi) protocol.
Ripple wanted to give away his 55,000,000,000 XRP & why Stellar makes it look stupid
David Schwartz, Ripple's chief technology officer, recently spoke about managing the company's massive XRP inventory, which is often the subject of massive criticism. If you compare the management of XRP by the start-up from San Francisco with the handling of the digital asset Stellar Lumens (XLM) by the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF), some questions remain unanswered.
Bitcoin course Pump powered by Tether? Why this narrative no longer works and BTC is still trading in a critical zone
The Bitcoin price has risen again in the past few days, bringing the BTC bulls back into the headlines. In this article, however, we want to show why the BTC course can still be enjoyed with caution. We'll also explain why Tether's recent surge in supply (USDT) is obviously not an indicator of fresh money flowing into Bitcoin.
Cardano will replace Ethereum - or not? So there are chances of a transfer
Cardano (ADA) has not only heard from the huge increase in prices in the past few weeks, but also through several updates. Many see Cardano as the Ethereum Killer, which is said to outshine the largest and best-known smart contract platform. But it is not as simple as some imagine.
Bitcoin bubbles repeat - a planned construct by Satoshi Nakamoto?
Most of us ended up in the crypto space due to the huge price increases of Bitcoin and Co. Again and again, Bitcoin price bubbles have led to increased attention towards cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Many burned their hands and left the crypto space again. Others have started to dig deeper into the nature of Bitcoin and have stayed. The deeper you dig, the more you understand what Bitcoin is and what effects it has on our financial world.
PayPal & Bitcoin rumor mill: does the payment giant offer its 300 million users crypto trading via Paxos?
The largest and most popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum could soon be integrated on the payment giant PayPal. Enthusiasm for PayPal integrating its cryptocurrency platform goes back to June. Origin of all speculation that cryptos like Bitcoin will soon be available on PayPal. Now the rumors seem to be coming true. This could actually be the biggest news in 2020
Some of my personal investment habits. Totally Arbitrary. Maybe Stupid.
Been investing myself for a little over three years. Have been posting replies in investing for a while and figure it may be time for me to share some of my own investment habits. Again, not scientific, not pro, totally arbitrary, maybe full of stupidity, as I am NOT a financial/econ/investment/business professional. -I believe investment starts with budgeting. I made a monthly budget and calculated how much money I have left after usual expenditure and putting away emergency savings. Then I invest 60%-70% of my remaining money; the rest I put into high-yield savings account or let it sit for several months and open a CD somdwhere. -I just have a.....paranoid obsession with diversification. After three years of playing with the market I now own a portfolio of more than 15 stocks, a couple REITS, 15+ ETFs (including one gold ETF) and four mutual funds. Many of these I have only say 0.5-1K of money invested in. I am just convinced that going into diversification helps disperse and mitigate risk. My gold ETF has made up for some of the losses in the current market downturn, but with everything turned to shit I am not better off than anybody else. I also use ETFs to gain exposure to foreign markets I cannot directly buy into. The same obsession applies to bank accounts: I have accounts in several banks to spread my savings. -When I first started buying stocks, I used to find the portfolio of a specific ETF in a specific sector that I have a positive view on, find their top 5-10 holdings of stocks, check their dividend info, and buy the one with highest dividend yield. Kinda like letting the "smarter" people do the picking for me while not having to entrust my money with them. (And later I found that the portfolio changes frequently :p) -I consider myself a dividend investor and I prefer stocks with high dividend yield. But I also want to reap profit from time to time. I made myself a rule: if a stock's unrealized upward gain equals 15-20 years of average dividend and I do not plan to hold it long term, I sell it, keep the gains, and then reinvest roughly the same amount of original principals into another stock. This makes me sell a stock or two and then buy one or two every quarter. Kinda stupid thinking backward, but hey I do want to get some fast cash out of my stocks from time to time. I was able to cash out some of my gains at the top of S&P500 last year with this strategy; still I am hit hard by the current turmoil. -I buy both physical gold bars/coins and gold ETF. Say what you like or don't like about gold, but people are so accustomed to fleeing into gold amid turmoil, it still is a safe haven asset in the foreseeable future I believe. -I don't buy any, ANY stock from Chinese companies listed in the US. I don't even hold an ETF of Chinese stocks and market---I can't control if some of my ETFs/Funds have exposure to Chinese companies, but I just don't buy anything focused on China. One reason is that my family is in China and they already invest inChinese market, but there is also another lesson learned by myself. Having worked part time at a financial website for a year and having translated many documents and interviews of Chinese companies, I just know how much shit these companies put out just to get listed in the US. This is absolutely not rational and I know it. This also makes me miss huge gains of Alibaba, Baidu etc but I am very firm at staying away from Chinese companies. The same principle I think should apply to Hong Kong stock exchange. There are just so many shitty Chinese companies listed there. -Yes I do buy actively managed mutual funds. Obsession with diversification is one reason. But I do believe that actively managed funds have a slightly better chance of hedging against risks than passive or index funds/ETFs (not that I don't buy them). Currently, my conservative strategy mutual fund is doing better than my moderate strategy one, recording a positive. -I realize that mentality is an important and tricky thing. A lot of investors are not very unsettled by losing money but will regret enormously not being able to reap profit that they believe they "should have" gained. I try very hard to escape from this type of mentality. I only seek to beat the inflation with my dividend. I've recorded a steady 3%-4% dividend yield from my portfolio in the past few years (not counting gains from selling stocks) and I am happy with it. -I don't have any virtual currency holdings. If only I had the guts to buy some Bitcoin a few years back (compare with the last statement to see irony LOL). -Resources that I frequently rely on: Bloomberg: subscribed for monthly subscription. News source. Dividend.com: subscribed for premium to track my dividend stock ratings and yield. Investopedia: frequent go-to website for knowledge and terms. etfdb.com: did not subscribe but I frequently check this website for ETF recommendations and info (limited in free edition). Seems to come from the same team that operates dividend.com. Happy investing and best of luck to everyone! Hope we will get through these difficult times and come out stronger. -
Bitcoin at $ 288,000? BTC price shows bullish signal like 2016
Bitcoin's price development has been relatively stable in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency has been trading in the $ 9,200 range since early June, which is the price at the time of publication. However, Bitcoin is currently showing signals that could indicate an upcoming bull market. According to a report by the Kraken Stock Exchange, Bitcoin is only a 10% jump away from entering a massive upward trend. As Kraken describes, to enter a bull market, Bitcoin must break the key resistance at $ 10,500, as shown below. https://preview.redd.it/0d4bm64zsla51.png?width=1276&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3a670c135792f34af6714fc8ab9d48cef7dc77e With that in mind, the report says Bitcoin could soon break resistance or take the risk of testing support at $ 6,000 to $ 7,000. This would end a period that some analysts have described as very stable. In fact, this is similar to the price development in 2016 and 2017, when Bitcoin initially tended to move sideways for a very long time and finally reached its all-time high of USD 20,000 in late 2017. According to analyst Moon Capital, the Bitcoin hash ribbons have crossed, revealing a massive buy signal that has historically pushed Bitcoin's price up. The signal was also there before the 2017 Bull Run. Therefore, the analyst predicts that BTC will rise to $ 288,000. The "hash ribbons" indicator is based on the hash rate of the Bitcoin network. It is calculated by comparing the short-term moving average and the long-term moving average of the Bitcoin hash rate. As soon as these two cross, a bullish indicator is generated. A breakdown is considered bearish. Capriole's digital asset manager, Charles Edwards, also noted the formation of this indicator. However, Edwards recommended waiting until midnight today (July 12th UTC) for the crossing of the hash ribbons to be confirmed. He also said the BTC price for confirmation should close above $ 9,230.
Bitcoin fundamentals support upcoming uptrend
On the other hand, Bitcoin's fundamentals seem to support a bull market. Bitcoin's hash rate has increased significantly since the difficulty adjustment in June. According to blockchain.com, the hash rate of Bitcoin reached a new high of 125.99 terra hashes per second (TH / s) on July 7. In this context, analyst and inventor of Bitcoin's stock-to-flow model, Plan B, said Bitcoin has weathered the worst of the past few months. In addition, he stressed that the cryptocurrency will soon peak at its hash rate, confirming the good health of the Bitcoin network.
TkeyNet: release date, a brief analysis of the system, future plans
https://preview.redd.it/ayym7cl9c1b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=367792bdc6acdcc670345cf1d6e12865d681b21b During the development of the project, we published 3 documents about the technology that we are developing and preparing for the market. Some decisions were changed, but the main idea and goal remained the same — effective financial management. Since the ICO boom, several years have passed, blockchain and cryptocurrencies have become synonymous and are perceived only as a means of earning money and the obvious advantages of using the technology itself in combination with others are of little interest to anyone. A user, business representatives, or some government officials associate the word “blockchain” directly with cryptocurrency or Bitcoin, without thinking about using systems built on a distributed registry in the current reality. As we mentioned above, during the development of the project, several documents were published in which we announced our technology and clearly said that we are mixing modern concepts and approaching the market from an economic and scientific point of view, borrowing the best from Bitcoin, Ethereum, DASH, and other alternative currencies. It is important to note that the concept of Bitcoin or Monero will be different from the concept of TkeyNet. These are other areas and practical application that some market participants may perceive as similar, but this is far from the case.
The idea of Bitcoin is beautiful, even if it has not yet been accepted by society as planned, but at least the idea of using Bitcoin as a means of accumulating value and storing savings has a place to be. Bitcoin actively strives for a high price mark and dominates the market by more than 50%, and this is a great result. Bitcoin set the necessary vector for many developers around the world, people were able to review the systems used and make their own decisions based on the Bitcoin core, for example, DASH or Ethereum, and users, in turn, learned about such a phenomenon as cryptocurrency. In General, what was this introduction for? That TKEY should be considered as a universal asset, without defining it as a cryptocurrency. The question may immediately arise, why is this so? It doesn’t have explicit currency properties? Bitcoin also does not have the properties of cash but is called a cryptocurrency, and the types of applications of the peer-to-peer payment system Bitcoin and TkeyNet can differ significantly from each other. https://preview.redd.it/3qfe582cc1b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=406f3c93314c473f9b9c9512e543fa33c6211067 The purpose of this publication is to tell you about the new features of TkeyNet, when the official transition to the new Protocol will take place, and why TKEY is a universal asset that simply needs liquidity? In General, we will talk about the clear advantages of switching to new technologies that we have been striving for so long and about your benefits of using them accordingly.
What is TkeyNet, and what are its advantages?
TkeyNet is an infrastructure that combines various solutions for users, businesses, and the public sector. Secure corporate networks, payment processors, liquidity, cross-border payments, trading tools, information security, instant exchanges, investment tools. One platform — millions of opportunities. https://preview.redd.it/bwewihsdc1b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bfc1343b46a1eb51f0b972cac509cc1893f3fa4 When creating TkeyNet, we immediately turned to e-cash protocols, concepts of electronic currencies, considered the movements of Bank international transfers, and also drew attention to the obvious complexity of these systems. Therefore, to build a high-quality architecture of TkeyNet, the team took as a basis — blockchain technology, cryptography, payment and banking system, electronic cash protocols, exchanges, stock markets, DHT, and other p2p networks. Now more than ever, businesses, users, and most financial market participants need reliable and modern systems that will meet the needs of the market. For example, a user wants to quickly send funds to another user, and they do not want to think about how the blockchain works and who the “miners” are and what they do for the network. Any of us want to open the app and click a few buttons on the screen to pay for a particular service or send money to relatives abroad and the most importantly, know that the funds will reach you quickly and with a minimum Commission. Or let’s say you came to India, you have some funds in Bitcoin, but you would like to pay for your purchases in the local currency — the Indian rupee without extra conversions. You are the owner of a payment system or Bank, and you want to receive % for conversion transactions, or banks want to create their consortium for cross-border payments. Either you are an entrepreneur and plan to open an exchange or trading platform for trading various assets, not necessarily digital, but, for example, gold and diamonds, or you are a young and purposeful startup team and want to quickly launch your Digital Bank, or you do not want to do business, and you have several million euros or dollars, you want to get % of their use. https://preview.redd.it/hkv2xcpfc1b51.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ae497765a2d02b66046d5a112eb0dd4f1eeb0bc TkeyNet makes these features available to all participants. As we can see with you, there are quite a lot of use cases, and it may seem that TKEY is again torn into 100500 different directions, but this is far from the case. Here, a specific and clear direction is Finance and its movement.
How TkeyNet works
Remember, we said that — “to develop the platform on a global level, it is necessary to reach a consensus between government regulation, business, and society. We understand that it is impossible to achieve 100% of this, but it is possible to create favorable conditions favorable to all parties.” How will the system work? All participants are connected to the system using TkeyNet technology that allows the financial gateway to control their transactions with increased speed, transparency, and efficiency. Independent verification servers constantly compare their transaction records. To hack the system, you will need to get access to all the devices that are logged in. https://preview.redd.it/ltwgjrhhc1b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=413d03504eafa2b496cf99d837b6a2a1c9ba6818 TkeyNet solutions offer a cryptographically secure, end-to-end payment flow with the immutability of transactions and redundancy of information contained in them. It is developed to meet each financial gateway’s risk, privacy, and compliance requirements. Since the software is developed to be easily integrated into the existing financial infrastructure, it minimizes any integration costs and failures, and also meets international standards (ISO, etc.).
TkeyNet can be a neutral utility for financial institutions and systems
A gateway is an organization that allows users to invest money and take money out of a pool of liquidity. The gateway accepts currency deposits from users and issues balances to the TkeyNet blockchain. TkeyNet Protocol provides a single source of truth for counterparties while maintaining the confidentiality of payment data of Bank clients. TKEY is a universal bill (digital obligation) in the distributed registry TkeyNet. Gateways install specialized software for interacting with the distributed registry and other system participants. Users, brokers, and other participants interact with the system via mobile or web interfaces. Gateways act as a link between the distributed registry, brokers, users, and other services that allow you to make quick transactions. https://preview.redd.it/igdiw4tjc1b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a25f8f6b74a0cebf2450d05a7bf7c675547e624 The participants of the system make payments between themselves by using cryptographically signed transactions denominated in digital obligation. This type of transaction uses an internal registry. In the case of working with Fiat currency and other assets, such as securities and precious metals, the registry records the amounts owed with assets presented as debt obligations. All accounts and transactions are cryptographically secure and verified algorithmically. Payments can only be authorized by the account holder, and all payments are processed automatically, without any third parties or intermediaries. The TkeyNet Protocol checks balances and accounts inside the system for transferring payments and sends payment notifications with minimal delay, which ensures fast calculations in the system. For more specialized solutions can be created by the Central gateways and the gateways just. A Central gateway is an organization that allows users to invest money and take money out of the liquidity pool. Gateway is an organization that interacts with the Central gateway. Accepts and exchanges digital liabilities for other assets, such as securities. TkeyNet globally reduces the number of different expenses and automates operational tasks, simplifies and reduces the cost of conducting monetary transactions, and improves traditional financial services. We understand that it is not easy to tell all the principles of the TkeyNet system in a single publication, especially one that deals with neither one nor two issues. Therefore, you should consider this material as a basis, a base that will help you learn the information that is related to the TkeyNet Protocol most easily after the release of TkeyNet. Moving a little away from corporate solutions, we suggest you recall some theses from our roadmap, which was published on the official website in the period from September 2018 to November 2019:
As before, you can easily and quickly send TKEY to any member of the network and TKEY will have liquidity on the exchange also, TKEY allows you to fast exchange for euros, dollars, or other currencies. https://i.redd.it/qapkdnvoc1b51.gif For the interface, the applications will display functions of digital assets 1:1 to a particular currency, for example, TKEY to RUB, TKey to EUR, or TKEY to Dirhams or TKEY to the pound and vice versa, respectively. https://preview.redd.it/0ipx86fqc1b51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=a406e9c0f181a5d0b1ecde347511954ba61bf433 Therefore, as we said above, TKEY should not be regarded as a cryptocurrency, it is a universal unit inside the system TkeyNet, which may refer to transaction information as exchanges of obligations between banks and transaction TKEY -> TKEY between users, or to carry information about the exchange on the exchange or the exchange of digital assets or gold variations quite a lot, for most of the functions we describe in the release day TkeyNet.
What are the advantages for companies and developers?
First of all, we strive to open the doors for all platform participants. Only through synergy and cooperation can we accelerate the pace of development of the entire system and the introduction of new technologies in the market. The platform will open doors for developers, who in turn can create technological solutions based on TkeyNet. A working environment will be created, and integration with the TkeyNet platform will be as easy as with the documented SDK or plug-ins. In the course of development, API documentation and ready-made SDKs for developers will be published. https://i.redd.it/31x1k7gsc1b51.gif This will make it easy to use and implement TkeyNet technology in various types of applications, for example, you want to create fast exchanges, we provide you with a framework, back-end, and API, and you create a front-end and launch your service, get your Commission, and are an independent project in the market. An important point is that integration into the existing infrastructure takes place while maintaining the decentralization of the TkeyNet system so that all its internal and external operations remain confidential and verified at the same time.
What are the advantages for users?
This means getting a universal tool for working with financial markets and easily converting an asset into any other asset: euro, dollars, or gold. https://preview.redd.it/ol4964huc1b51.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fedfc9009201cb8c392be3f214f285d003c0d95 Also, TKEY owners should clearly understand that the more the system develops and there are more participants, namely the corporate segment, projects, and partners, the company will be more stable and thus the project assets will grow stronger. The popularity of the platform and trust in it directly affects the price of assets, these are the key points of growth signs, the wider and more influential the spread of the company in various areas, the higher its performance in the market.
When will the long-awaited transition to TkeyNet take place?
What changes will be made to the products?
As you understand, everything will change, and this is for the better. At a minimum, products will become faster, lighter, safer, and more versatile. Changes and new releases will be released as soon as they are ready. In TkeySpace, the TKEY libraries will be rewritten under TkeyNet. A web version of the wallet will appear, and eventually, an application with an exchange interface will be released for quick trading and exchange of various assets, not limited to digital ones. The Tkey Messenger will be adapted for TkeyNet and will be released for previously announced platforms: iOS, Android, Linux, macOS, Windows immediately with the ability to translate directly in the messenger. We will tell you about the messenger architecture on the release day.
All changes and releases will be published and announced after the release of TkeyNet.
What is radically new in TkeyNet?
There will be funds, the Protocol will become much more universal, as well as the TKEY itself. The Protocol will also exclude the possibility of attacks that could have been in Core 1.0, also, the principles of the platform will change. We will publish all technical specifications on the day of release.
Timeline for switching to TkeyNet
The transition to TkeyNet will not take place until August 2020. We will release news and instructions for switching to TkeyNet, so we recommend that you subscribe to the newsletter immediately: https://tkeycoin.com/en/newslette.
Listing on crypto exchanges
The liquidity of the TKEY asset is urgently needed for the development of the entire TkeyNet system, so the company will provide trading platforms for TKey trading and exchange.
The introduction of technologies using digital currencies will create the fastest transition of users and the corporate market to a new level. FinTech direction makes it possible to manage finances in the most efficient and secure way, without violating the law. This system simplifies, reduces the cost of conducting monetary transactions, and actually improves traditional financial services. The solution is interesting to everyone who works with money and is used to getting maximum efficiency from it: business, investors, traders, users of banking solutions, the corporate segment, etc. When using the system, large businesses get solutions for interacting with customers online, without using specialized points. We, in turn, are open to various offers and cooperation on flexible terms. If you have any suggestions or interesting concepts, please contact us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
LeanFIRE and Goal Oriented Investing: 10 Mistakes you should avoid
Dear All - After my earlier post regarding COVID-19 and 10 rules to deploy savings that generated lots of questions and interest I would like to share my thoughts about Goal Oriented Investing. While it's a 101 it may nevertheless be helpful to highlight especially in this market environment. I wasn't able to put graphs and videos here so you may find the full version here. Looking forward to hearing your feedback.
1. Not clearly defining your goals. Define your objectives and think in terms of sub-portfolios
Define your short and long term goals. Allocate to asset classes based on your time horizon (e.g. short term goals need to be carefully managed with a defensive portfolio since the short term volatility of high risk assets like stocks can hurt you). Be sure to have a reserve fund of liquid short-term investments and cash so you can cover emergencies and upcoming large expenses without having to sell your investments during down markets.
2. Not being patient and overreacting. Good things come to those who wait
Returns tend to smooth out over the long term. There is a myth about a Fidelity study that analysed all its performing accounts and realised that best performance came out of portfolios of people who either forgot about their accounts or were dead. You can understand why people believe these findings although the study never took place (look at the chart here - 1 to 20 year rolling performance again!). Logging into your brokepension plan account every day may not be helpful. You may tend to react – do not rush investment decisions.
3. Oveunderestimating your risk tolerance
Take a risk tolerance assessment if necessary to understand your risk profile. Your risk tolerance is important to tweak the asset allocation of your goal sub-portfolio. It is determined by: the degree of flexibility you have with regard to your financial goal, and your personal comfort level with volatility in your portfolio.
4. Aiming at influencing things outside of your control. Focus of what’s in your control
This is the Stoic part of the 10 recommendations (if you also happen to adhere to this philosophy get the Stoic newsletter I never stopped reading for the past 5 years). One of the eye-openers that you learn while studying for the gruelling (Chartered Financial Analyst ‘CFA’) Charter is that research estimates that asset allocation (not stock selection!) drives up to c. 90% of overall portfolio performance. You control asset allocation and rebalancing. You do control your spending and savings that will grow over time – don’t waste most of your time on researching individual stocks (read: Are you more qualified than a professional analyst).
5. Not acquiring enough education and taking excessive idiosyncratic risks
Some of the most trending Google searches during this COVID-19 pandemic include ‘best stocks to buy now’, ‘how to invest in oil stocks’, ‘best stock for 2020’ or ‘best investments for 2020’ etc. In fact the phrase ‘how to buy a stock’ surged to record highs. This also relates to FOMO which I have described here and chasing upward trends in a bear market. Acquiring Investment Knowledge is key as it is ultimately your decisions that will determine whether your hard-earned savings generate long term returns. Do your homework. Understand investment risks. Research fundamentals. Take a bit more time if needed – the market is efficient and is pricing in information relatively quickly – you have no edge in acting quickly.
6. Being overly conservative over the long run
Think of your goals as liabilities that you need to match with your investments. The power of compounding means that you need a much lower amount today to meet a higher amount expenditure in the future. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it. If you have high needs with long time horizon you need to take calculated risks. Invest too defensively (e.g. low allocation to Equities) and it may not match your long term objective. Buffett’s exceptional investment returns are also due to his time horizon.
7. Holding excessive cash. Not taking risks involves high opportunity costs
Believe it or not but a lot of bankers working for the top names tend to hold cash and under-invest. By holding cash you are not only missing out on compounding interest but also paying more taxes! Inflation is an indirect tax that works by destroying savings in exchange for gov’t financing. It gets worse – as central banks print an unprecedented amount of money – most standard measurements of inflation, such as the consumer price index (CPI), do not account for the disproportional effects of quantitative easing which is rising asset prices (monetary inflation). Even when you hear about deflation it’s often very misleading. This bear market may be a good opportunity to gradually deploy cash for long term returns if you haven’t already. As an example – the ‘headline’ inflation in the UK (2.9%) that over 10 years increased prices by 29.29% vs. London Property Prices that increased over twice as much. The same applies to other real assets, like company valuations (stocks) or gold.
8. Not considering diversification
Yes, bonds are not as sexy as stocks since your returns may not be as spectacular in the short term but these are excellent diversifiers that may be sometimes better suited depending on your investment objective and time horizon. Other currencies or hard metals/BTC may be good as well. As an example YTD performance (as of March 9th when I did the analysis) was -14.2% for stocks, +6.1% for bonds and +10.7% for Gold.
9. Letting your emotions rule
This is difficult to implement since we tend to have emotional biases. If you do decide to have a small part of your goal-oriented strategic asset allocation dedicated to tactical asset allocation, sector or stock selection emotions could drive investment decisions based on loss aversion or overconfidence (e.g. confusing brains with a bull market). If it’s e.g. the latter try to stay humble/rational and ask yourself if you really have an edge before making a decision.
Feedback on investing strategy (part value/momentum, part Couch Potato) and portfolio allocation
Hi PFC! I'm looking for feedback on my investing strategies and portfolio allocation decisions (i.e., TFSA vs. RSP vs. taxable accounts) to make sure I'm not making any big mistakes or missing any big opportunities. I've been researching this sub and its recommended resources for a while and am ready to get into the market. Thanks for the learning thus far and thanks in advance for your input! Personal finance background: 28, single, $100k CAD annual income, no debt, currently renting, looking to invest in real estate in 2-3 years, TFSA and RSP maxed out. Aggressive risk tolerance. I have had around ~$65k in the market in a 90/10 Couch Potato e-Series portfolio since 2017. Investing strategy: 70% of my portfolio in value/momentum factor investing (this is new for me) and 30% of my portfolio in Couch Potato-style TD e-Series Funds. Here is my plan:
$100k @ 2% (current rate)
6-month emergency fund and saving for down payment
SBEA is a globally balanced value/momentum active ETF. It has a trend following overlay that hedges away from equities to bonds when things start to look bad. It's a Canadian-listed ETF that holds Canadian stocks directly, as well as QVAL, QMOM, IVAL, and IMOM (all US-listed ETFs that hold US and international value and momentum stocks directly).
$35k in TDB8150 @ 0.25% (current rate)
TDB8150 is an ISA. This is equivalent to a 20% cash position in my investment portfolio. I'll use this to steadily increase my positions in SBEA, QVAL, and IVAL over time.
Within the value/momentum portion of my portfolio, it is 60% value and 40% momentum (selected based on this tweet)
Weighted average MER of 0.75%. I'm paying for 1) the concentrated value/momentum factor exposure from Alpha Architect, 2) SBEA being active, and 3) SBEA being listed in CAD. Note: SBEA wraps the Alpha Architect US-listed ETFs, adds Canadian value and momentum stocks, balances them all algorithmically, then lists the ETF on a Canadian stock exchange (NEO Exchange).
What comes to mind when you look at my portfolio? What would you adjust?
This sub is a mess and needs to get out of the anger stage: How to move forward from the crash if you're a bagholder
Back in December 2017 I did a valuation attempt of Bitcoin on this sub and got around 5K with some grossly optimistic assumptions. Its taken a long time but finally gone down below that. You've probably heard many people tell you it would eventually happen back in December 2017 and to reduce expose to crypto (including me), but when you're hyped up on 20% gains every week its hard to be cautious or engage in defensive measures. To many the last quarter of 2017 and into early 2018 was like a beach party with coke and Victoria Secret models. Who wants to listen to someone tell you about how you're gonna crash hard with a headache the next morning? With this latest crash, Bitcoin's price is back to roughly mid October 2017, which is roughly when the mainstream mania started. Many on this sub entered after October 2017 and hence are now left holding heavy bags. Many are down 80% or even 90%. Here is the current losses from ATH for the top cryptos:
Loss from ATH
Who do we blame?
At a time like this its easy to get angry, to look at someone to blame. Whether Roger Ver and the hash wars, whether BAAKT delay, whether whales or SEC or institutions, everyone has their favorite boogeyman. No one thing is the reason why the market is down 80%. The reality is that Bitcoin (and all other crypto by extension) was ovevalued even by grossly overoptimistic measures. Its not BAKKT or the whales trying to get your coins for cheap. The same people who were buying at near peak bubble thinking they were getting into the chance of a lifetime are prone to look for someone to blame for their losses, when it was actually their fault for buying near the end of a mania. Nobody wants to admit that it was their own greed, lack of research and irrational behavior that lead to the gross overvaluation of all cryptocurrency.
Is it over yet?
The $6K consolidation was likely a result of the market coiling tighter and tighter around the mining breakeven point for some of the smaller miners. The big firms in China are profitable mining below 6K, but many smaller ones in the US and Europe aren't. You can actually see the total hash rate going down. Once it broke it was a big fall straight down. Bitcoin is mined at 12.5 BTC. per block at 10 minute blocks, which comes out to around 1800 BTC every day. This 1800 BTC has to be absorbed by every day, which means the following at different price levels:
Daily net buying needed to absorb mined coins
At the current price, at least theoretically $8.4 million in demand is needed to cover the mining output. Of course the miners don't immediately dump it all, but it shows why miners have an incentive to keep the price high and try to incite FOMO with a BGD. I can also see that after this latest drop, the "buy the dip" sentiment had substantially gone down, at least compared to the other fast drops in price. This is especially discouraging those who were waiting for the "November bull run", which never came. Its clear to more people now that this probably isn't just downward correction that will reverse, but a multiyear bear market. This is why the bounce has been so weak compared to earlier in the year. Compare that to the last two big 2 day drops:
March 29 - April 1st (drop from 8K to 6K): Within 2 days it bounced back up to 7.5K
June 22-24 (drop from 6.8K to 5.8K): Within 2 days it bounced back to 6.3K
The weakness of this current bounce says it all, people are no longer optimistic that BAKKT or ETF or any other catalyst will lead to a bull run that they can cash out quick. It may be a period of stagnation followed by further drops as big holders take profits. I also think that the FED tightening with rate hikes is leading to a lot more volatility not only in stocks, but crypto as well. Right now asset deflation seems to be a global macro risk as cheap credit dries up, and Bitcoin surely isn't immune from this. My personal view is that at this point we may see further declines, but calling what's going to happen next is always dangerous. A whale (especially a big mining operation) with a series of large orders to clear out the order book on Bitfinex could give us a BGD out of nowhere at any time and take us back to 6K, it would be interesting to see how the market reacts to something like that. But I'm not betting on it leading to any sustained rally past 10K. Quite the opposite. So what's a crypto shrimp to do? I'll split my thoughts into two, for those who are still in the green and those in the loss.
If you're still in the green
If you're still in profit, this is a great time to consider how much more downward selling you can take and also how you can hedge downward risk. If you're someone who purchased when Bitcoin was below $1000, you should calculate your compounded annual ROI and decide if that return is good enough for you. For equities, the long term average is about 10% per year, 20-30% in a good bull market. Its your decision, but taking out profits that exceed principal and reinvesting the principal is not at all a bad idea. For those who invested before Bitcoin reached $1K (April 2017) the current price is still an insane return that no other asset class can match. Another important thing is to think about how you can hedge the risk of downward movement. This is where derivative exchanges are very useful, although you do need to do some research on how derivatives work and how to not get liquidated. If you have substantial holdings, the effort to learn this is worth it. The basic idea is that you can buy short contracts that increase in value as Bitcoin goes down, proportional to the amount of leverage you put to finance the contract. If managed correctly, you can protect your entire stack with a portion as leverage. Its something commonly done by miners, who short Bitcoin with derivatives to hedge their holdings.
If you're in the loss
The untold reality is that HODL is a meme told to newbies to prevent panic selling during a downturn while the smart money cashes out in a more orderly fashion. But does that mean you shouldn't hold if you're already down massively? Well that depends on your own life situation, how much you've invested, and if you don't need the money for the next few years. Mathematically, whether it drops to 4.5K or 3K from the reference of 6K is highly meaningful, its a drop of 25% or 50%. But if your reference starting point is much higher, then it really doesn't matter all that much. A drop from 17K to 4.5K is a 74% loss while down to 3K it would be 82%, massive losses either way. In that sense if this is money you don't need, it makes sense to simply have it stored in a wallet and forget about it for a few years. Who cares if it drops further after a certain point if you don't plan to take it out for a while? Its like in equities markets where people with massive losses don't sell, but instead move the loss position into their retirement fund where they don't plan to take it out for a long time and thus are giving it time to rebound back. But what if its money you need? What if like many out there you took out loans hoping to catch a run to 50K? If you have high interest debt (credit cards...etc), focus on paying that down first. Credit cards generally have high interest and many compound daily, so pay down the debt first rather than trying to pay your debts off with a crypto bull run that may take years to materialize. This is also a good learning opportunity. It is worrying how few people who hold crypto have a clue what any of this even is or how it works. I've always recommended this video to explain how Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) actually work. A good thing to do during catastrophic losses is to honestly access why you got suckered into buying high in the first place. Most people here are young, and this is a valuable lesson in why you shouldn't follow the herd. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, everyone is chasing the next hype. Crypto tends to attract people looking for a get-rich-quick-without-effort crowd, but it takes some mental effort to understand this beyond the buzzwords. Take the time to understand the fundamental reasons why an asset has value and what factors would drive its rise once the hype dies down. What makes Bitcoin valuable, what makes some of the other cryptoassets valuable? If those fundamentals in some way changes, so should your opinion. Its also a great opportunity to help in its adoption by using it. The irony of it all is that people demand that they get rich because of the hard work of buying a bunch of crypto in an exchange and transferring it to their wallet, without any understanding what they're buying into. Also don't be angry. Don't look to blame. Look to learn and improve next time you invest.
An old friend of mine emailed this to me a while back with the subject line “Hide and Seek” and I’ve been hesitant to post it for reasons that should become obvious as you read it. That said, I feel that enough time has gone by for this to be safe so I’m going to post it here. The only edits I’ve made were swapping out names and formatting, otherwise it’s all exactly as he sent it. T, if you’re reading this then message me. I want to know if you’re alright, and if you are I know you’ll be looking for this story to show up. This is what the email said: Rijento, I’m writing this story because I feel like I need an outlet. I swear to god that you better actually check your email for once in your damn life! Please… As for if you actually are reading this, I want you to wait as long as your (admittedly) better judgment tells you to wait and then post this story online. I know it’s a bit vain, but I want people to know my story. Hell, it might be the last one I ever tell. Double hell, it might actually even help some poor soul out. I’m going to disappear after sending this, hopefully the good kind of disappear and not the death kind. I know nobody but you is going to believe this story but damn if typing this out didn’t make my sorry ass feel better. You were right about that man, I’m sorry for giving you shit for writing so much…
This is the attached file. “Hide and Seek”: Before I get in to the ‘hiding’ and ‘seeking’ I have a bit of a confession that needs to be made. I work as a transporter for a deep web black market site… I hope it doesn’t change your opinion of me too much, sorry for not telling you sooner. I’m the guy they call when they get an order for something they can’t send through the mail. Guns and live animals are two good examples. You’d be pretty hyped to know how many rich assholes just order lions and tigers from the dark web. For obvious reasons, I can’t go in to too much detail, I don’t want to make any dangerous enemies and even after this I still don’t want to lose my job. It’s a pretty sweet gig all things considered, all I have to do is pick up from the seller and deliver to the buyer. I can even choose what jobs I want to take, lets me cling to what little principles I still have. And I DO have principles. After a few years working for the site, my two rules were: no people and no crossing borders. Anyways, I got into a bit of a bind with the cryptocurrency crash that happened early this year. The site mostly pays in Bitcoin and, well, I decided to let my wallet sit and grow. By the time I realized what happened, my savings were destroyed. Nobody expected it to crash that hard… And it probably wouldn’t have been as much of a problem if I hadn’t also gotten used to living a life full of the finer things. I didn’t really ‘save’ all that much to begin with either. So when my savings finally ran dry and the market was still down, I decided to… Lower my standards a bit and take a riskier, higher paying job. Organ transport. I haven’t done it before… I hadn’t been that broke in a long time. Organ jobs pay well too, and I figured I still wasn’t strictly breaking my ‘no people’ rule if it was just their organs. So, I hopped on the site and browsed through the pitiful number of requests in my area till I found what I was looking for. A rich buyer who: had shady connections, was in need of some organs, and lacked either the time or patience to wait for them to come legally. As far as these sort of requests went, this was pretty much the norm from what I’d heard. So I accepted the job and got an email with some additional details about the order: the customer needed two kidneys (which was what I was to transport) and a liver (which they had made a separate request for). From what other people on the site have told me, what should have happened was the job would move to the ‘seeking seller’ section and I’d be on hold till someone… ‘_acquired_’ the kidneys. What actually happened probably should have tipped me off to use my monthly free withdraw… I got a notification two hours later that there was a seller. Rijento, I don’t know how much you know about medicine, but if you do know anything then you’re probably squirming in your own skin about right now. For those who may or may not be reading this that are not in the know, not only do the donor and receiver have to have compatible blood types but kidneys only last about a day outside of a warm body. Not exactly a product you can stockpile. I got another email, about the pickup this time, and began the internal debate between the bad feeling in my gut and my empty wallet… You can probably guess which one of them won out… Anyways, I planned my route; one hour to get to the seller and four hours to get from there to the buyer. I sent the site my plan and within minutes they approve of it and set up an actual meeting point. I sighed and grabbed my things, trying to swallow my nerves the entire hour it took me to reach the meeting point. I sat down on a bench in a city park and waited for what seemed like ages before I felt someone staring at me. It took me a solid minute to pick out who it was even though there were only a few people around. He was sitting with his back to me at a picnic table about ten yards away from me and whenever I looked away I could feel his eyes on me. When we eventually did make eye-contact he bounced excitedly in his seat and waved me over; my heart sank as he also slid a small case into my line of sight. I forced myself to smile, walked over, sat down, and hid my annoyance. Most of the buyers on the site were practically carbon copies of each other. Probably because you could only become a buyer if another buyer knew and endorsed you. The sellers, on the other hand, were all certifiably insane. None of the other transporters I’d chatted with had ever met with a ‘normal’ seller. Because of this, all of them quickly learned to keep conversation to a minimum and to not under any circumstances piss any of them off. I decided to follow in their example. The man sitting in front of me looked friendly enough, overly so if anything. He was scrawny, didn’t look like he would be strong enough to… well… kill someone and harvest their insides. He had a strange smile on his face, and even now I can’t get it out of my head. The kind of overly friendly, wide toothed smile that mothers warned their children to stay away from. It somehow managed to be both inviting and creepy at the same time. I smiled back and spoke up, “So you’re the seller then?” I asked, and the man nodded. He nodded and responded in a sickeningly sweet voice… He sounded like a child in a toy store, his voice strained with excitement and wonder as he droned on to his parents about what toys he wanted. “Oh I’m so glad you found me. For a minute there I thought I’d have to call ‘olly olly oxen free.’” He said with a pleased sigh, pushing the case to my side of the table. “You know… Over the years I’ve gotten quite good at playing hide and seek. So good, in fact, that I’ve never been found. Not. Even. Once. Do you want to know my secret?” the man asked, his voice still just as unsettlingly sweet as his smile. “Sure, what’s your secret?” I asked. I really, really didn’t want to know what the hell he was talking about; but if it kept him happy then… He clapped rapidly and bounced in place, “Oh I’m so glad that you’re a curious one. My secret is that the seekers never know that they’re playing.” “Makes sense…” I said, opening the case momentarily to verify. Two kidneys in pristine condition, doused with preserving fluid, wrapped in plastic. and packed in ice. “If the seeker doesn’t know they’re playing then how would they know to start looking?” I said, leaving out the fact that it would just be stalking at that point before swallowing hard when I thought about where these kidneys came from. “You’re a smart one…” he said with a smile as I sent a message confirming the pickup. All that was left was to wait for the transaction to process. “I was worried about this last one though… she came right up to me. This. Close.” he said, leaning in till our faces almost touched. I struggled to keep my composure, and managed to keep from jumping or pushing him away. “So what did you do?” I asked as he leaned back, my suspicions about these kidneys being all but confirmed. “Why, nothing of course…” He said, a slightly bewildered expression on his face. He looked as though I just asked him how to breathe. I glanced down at my phone to see if the transaction had been verified yet and he snapped his fingers like he remembered something. “Oh I must apologize!” he said, making me look up, “I forgot that you don’t play much… I simply held my breath, closed my eyes, and wished that she would just… go away.” “You’re right… You are good at hide and seek...” I said, wishing to myself that he would just go away and hearing the familiar ding of a successful transaction sound on both of our phones as if to answer my prayers. I reached out my hand as a formality and he grabbed it and shook it vigorously. I forced a smile and stood, although what he said next made my blood nearly freeze. “You’re the first person to find me in oh so long…” He trailed off as he said it, his voice slowly shifting from that of an exited child to the cold blooded maniac that he was. “Maybe my games won’t be so one sided from now on,” He said, his voice disturbingly normal. Although, even without looking back I could tell that the same sickeningly sweet smile was glued to his face. I kept walking but waved my arm as though saying goodbye. The worst part was that I could feel him watching me as I walked back to my car… Not just at first, like if he was watching me leave, but the entire way back, and even as I got in my car. I took a moment to look around and sighed as I saw nothing. It might not sound like much to you. I don’t know, I can still hardly describe it myself, but he had this… creepy way of getting under your skin just by talking to you. I wrote it off as me just being paranoid, the guy harvests organs from people for a living so of course everything he says is creepy. I groaned and started my car, but it wasn’t until I hit the freeway that I was finally able to shake the feeling of his gaze. It’s not like he could’ve been following me, by then I was already paranoid enough to be checking for that, making a few detours just to be sure of it. And because of my detours, I ended up being about an hour past the scheduled drop off with the buyer… Lost my chance at a tip for sure, guy was furious and there was nothing I could tell him to calm him down. I’m pretty sure, ‘sorry I’m late, but the seller was a total psycho and I wanted to make sure he wasn’t following me,’ wouldn’t have been a very good excuse. Whatever, I had my money and the buyer had his organs and plenty of time for whatever operation that used them. Not much to complain about on either side, well except for the fact that I already knew I wouldn’t be sleeping that night. Especially because the feeling of being watched had returned as soon as I set foot out of my car which was, again, impossible. The site never tells the sellers anything about the buyers or transporters, so there’s no way he could have known where I was headed to and no way that he could have followed me. I hopped back in my car and started to head for home, hoping that a few tabs of melatonin would be enough for at least a few hours of sleep. And again, I could feel eyes on me as I drove and I saw his eerie smile everywhere until I hit the highway. I felt a weight lift off of my shoulders then, although I made sure to take the most winding path home that I could afford gas for (which was quite a bit after a job like that). By the time I did get home it was starting to get dark, and I had made a few loops around my apartment just to be sure I didn’t still feel his eyes on me. Luckily, my apartment building has a public parking garage attached to it so even if I was being followed I felt safe enough that nobody would be able to find my room. But Just to be sure, I took the stairs for the first time in months. Have any of you ever climbed seven flights of stairs out of paranoia before Rijento? Well in case you haven’t let me tell you what it’s like. Do you remember running up the stairs from the basement after turning off the lights as a kid? That feeling of unease and terror? Well it’s like that, but you aren’t a kid anymore. It’s not the dark or what imaginary monsters could be lurking in it that frightens you anymore. Instead, you’re worried about who could be hiding in the darkness, what real monster could be following you up those stairs… I’m no slouch when it comes to exercise but it still drained everything out of me hauling my body up those stairs on my hands and feet like an animal as fast as I could. I got inside and locked the door securely behind me, panting, covered in sweat, but I sighed in relief with the fact that I hadn’t felt anyone watching me at all during my climb. I took a moment to catch my breath, slumping down by the door and chuckling to myself while shaking my head. I couldn’t believe that I’d let that freak get so deep under my skin. Once I had caught my breath, I stood up and made my way to my couch before flopping onto it. I wanted nothing more than to go to sleep then and there, but I had to be smart with my money this time. I immediately cashed the Bitcoin out. Better to pay myself out in small increments, but I had bills to pay and I’d already learned my lesson about leaving things in Bitcoin. Once business was taken care of, I grabbed the remote control and flicked on the TV. The familiar faces of the local news anchors greeted me and I began drifting off to sleep while listening to the happenings of our city. It was around seven a.m. when I was woken up by the sound of the ‘breaking news’ alert coming on. “We are just receiving reports of a ghastly murder of one [yeah, I’m not gonna put her name or age here] year old college student living on her own. Police investigators say that several of her organs were found to be missing and that they found evidence of someone living in her home without her knowledge for quite some time before the murder…” The reporters kept talking about how much of a tragedy the situation was… But I wasn’t listening. How could I listen… I’ve never been less happy to be right then I was at that moment. I shuddered thinking about it. My thoughts and paranoia regarding the man I’d met the other day bubbling back up to the surface. It was then that the reality of what I’d done hit me like a freight train. By accepting that contract I doomed that girl to die… All because I needed some quick cash. I stood up and went to the kitchen and opened my liquor cabinet. Without looking, I grabbed a bottle of something with shaking hands and fumbled with the top while trying to keep my mind clear of thoughts. Once I had the cap off I took several deep swigs from the bottle, spilling quite a bit down my chin before I set it down and gasped for air. The burn of the alcohol in my throat gave me something to focus on while it worked its magic on the rest of my body. As my mind slowly clouded I found my way to a chair and found it easier to think about what happened without panicking. My first thought was that I needed to do something. I knew the guy’s face, I should go to the cops! It was at this moment that the… Less impulsive side of my brain kicked in. I go to the cops and all I do is give myself a one way ticket to an early grave. My employers don’t take kindly to police interactions. I slowly resigned myself to the fact that I was going to have to live with the consequences of this job for the rest of my life… I’m a coward, I know. Anyways, the next few days passed by slowly. I was… Not in a good place mentally and I’m sure you remember how much alcohol my cabinets were stocked with. I blacked out more than once only to wake up gasping for breath from drinking too much. It was honestly a miracle that I didn’t kill myself through alcohol poisoning. But I… Managed to come to terms with everything. Don’t get me wrong, I still had nightmares where I was the guy hiding in that girls closet… But I wasn’t drinking my problems away anymore, although I think that was more because of the fact that I’d run out of liquor than any meaningful character development. It was about a week later that I was able to get my first night of actual sleep. I didn’t dream about anything either so that was a plus. I know it probably sounds bad, but I was starting to feel normal again… Like I could maybe find a way to just be myself… Either way, even after all that I still wanted to keep my job. I just added a new rule: no organs. From there I fell back into more or less my old routine. I went to eat out almost every day though, I thought any excuse that got me cleaned up and out of my place was worth taking… And then, I began to feel it again. That skin-crawling sensation of eyes on me from somewhere that I felt the day I met Mr. Hide&Seek. I didn’t think much of it at first, I only felt the eyes when I was surrounded by other people so of course one or two would be looking my way right? I thought I was just guilty and paranoid. But no matter what I did, I would always feel like I was being watched whenever other people were around. So I started driving more and more and eating out less and less. Not driving anywhere in particular, just driving… I felt safe on the open road, I couldn’t feel any eyes on me… For about a week. It started small. A shiver down my spine here and there. A sharp sensation that made my eyes snap to one car or another. Then it came more frequently, and I began to get more and more paranoid as the feeling became stronger and stronger. I started driving less and less, and whenever I did, I kept my eyes on the cars around me. Trying desperately to find where that feeling was coming from. To find who was watching me… Trying to catch a glimpse of his face in a passing car. I even thought I did see him a few times… Except that was just paranoia… I hope. Eventually, I stopped driving unless I had to. I shut myself in my apartment, only going out to get groceries and always, always making sure that I didn’t feel anyone watching me before I parked. But that feeling would always find me whenever I went out. This went on for about a month. I started to drink again, I didn’t go out to eat or drive anymore. I paid someone to deliver my groceries to the garage of my building. All I did was eat, sleep, drink, and watch movies or play games… I’d be living the dream, if I didn’t think a serial killer was stalking me. Part of me believed that I was just being paranoid and to be honest I desperately wanted to believe that part of me… But not enough to stake my life on it. And after another week of living like a shut-in the feeling of being watched started to re-surface. Like before it started off small. I felt a ping of eyes on me and from then on I kept the blinds securely closed. Even then, the feeling persisted for days, gradually gathering in strength. So I emptied out all of my closets and cabinets daily… Eventually I just left all of the doors open and everything on the floor so that I could look in to any hiding spot in an instant… But that feeling still persisted. I stopped drinking because I was terrified of being attacked. I started sleeping less and less and when I had to sleep, I slept inside of my closet and barred the doors shut from the inside. I ate and drank only when I felt hungry and always with my back to a corner of the room or locked in my closet… But I could still feel eyes on me, feel His eyes on me the same way I had back at the park. It was about a month later when I finally discovered my haven. The one place left that I didn’t feel watched. The stairwell of my building. I found that whenever I went down and back up the stars to get my groceries – as I’d long since stopped using the elevator – that I would have a brief respite from the feeling of being watched. I started to spend all of my waking hours there, sat on one of the stairs without a care in the world. I only left them to eat and sleep and whenever I entered the building proper I would feel eyes on me almost immediately. But having those stairs to return to made my life almost bearable. It had been a long time since I had anywhere I felt safe, and like every place before it I kept waiting form the feeling of being watched to follow me into the stairwell… But it never did. For another month, I fell into a somewhat bearable rhythm. I’d wake up in my closet feeling watched, I’d eat in the corner of my kitchen feeling watched, and then I’d scurry off to the stairwell where I could blessedly feel alone – Especially near the top floors where the stairs were seldom used. But all good things must come to an end and all that, and while I never did feel watched in the stairs, I did run out of money. Apartments and cars don’t pay for themselves after all, and while I managed a few months on the blood money from my last job it was finally time to get back to work. In the months since I last logged on to the site, things had calmed down significantly and there were now plenty of jobs that didn’t break any of my rules… So I decided to go with a route that I’d done before a couple of times. A gun run. The seller always treated me to a drink or two at his bar and was also always well armed so I felt that it would be a nice and easy job that I could feel safe doing. After confirming the job I closed my laptop, pulled on a fresh set of clothing, and headed out the door. I wanted to get this over and done with, and thankfully the feeling of being watched was rather light that day. I do admit, however, that I lingered in the stairwell for a bit before heading out. I wanted a bit of time alone before being out in the open for the first time in months. Anyways, I hopped in my car after about thirty minutes of blessed stairwell time and headed to the bar. After about two hours of paranoid and twisting driving I managed to make it just on time and pulled my car into the alleyway behind the bar. The owner greeted me with a smile as I got out of my car, “T, long time no see!” he said, his smile fading as I walked up and he got a better look at me. “Holy shit man, are you feeling okay?” he asked, genuine worry in the eyes of the large man. “No… I’m pretty far from okay…” I said with an exhausted sigh. I could still feel the faintest hint of eyes on me even now, though I know that the owner wouldn’t let me be jumped at his bar. “It’s a long story,” I offered, realizing for the first time that it might be nice to actually tell someone what happened. “Is that so.” he said with a hint of a smile and a shake of his head. “Well, hows about we get you a drink while the boys get ready to load up your car.” He offered in return, making me smile. “There’s always plenty of time for stories at my bar.” He said proudly. “I’d like that…” I said with another exhausted sigh, managing to keep the smile up as he put an arm around me and lead me in the back door of the bar. “Oh, by the way, how did you hold up during the bitcoin crash? I heard it hit a couple of transporters pretty hard.” he said, making me chuckle as we made our way through the kitchen. “Funny you should mention that,” I said, making him raise an eyebrow, “because that’s how my long story star—” I began, only to stop short when I looked at the bar. HE was siting there, sipping on a beer without a care in the world. He noticed me out of the corner of his eye and that same sickeningly sweet smile crept onto his face as his eyes met mine. I froze. There was no way that this was a coincidence. There was no way that he just happened to be at this bar at this time. I was broken from my trance by the bar owner waving his hand in front of my face and saying my name, “Hello? T, you alright?” I quickly ducked back into the kitchen and started to hyperventilate. How did he know? How could he possibly have known that I would be here? Did he follow me? “Did who follow you?” The owner’s voice brought me back to reality once again as I realized I’d been thinking out loud. His face was concerned, bordering on scared. “How long has that guy been at the bar?” I asked, hoping that the owner knew who I was talking about. “If you mean tall, thin, and creepy then about an hour… What is going on T?” He asked, as I slumped against the wall. I started crying. I broke down and burst back into the bar only to see that Mr. Hide&Seek he was already gone. “I… I need to go. I need to get home!” I said, pushing past the owner and running to my car. He called after me, trying to get me to stay and explain what the hell was happening but I wasn’t listening. For all I know, Mr. Hide&Seek could be breaking in to my apartment already. I drove straight home and threw open the door to my apartment. It had still been locked, but I wasn’t taking any chances. I grabbed a knife from the kitchen and checked everywhere. But he wasn’t there. Then, my phone rang and scared the living hell out of me. I checked the number and gulped when I saw that it was blocked. I considered not answering but in the end I picked up the call. “H-Hello?” I asked tentatively. “T… What the hell happened at the bar?” a modulated voice rang through the speaker in my ear, making me wince. It was one of the site admins for sure. I was silent for a moment before telling the admin everything. I couldn’t see the man, but I could feel a sudden change when I mentioned seeing Mr. Hide&Seek at the bar. “T,” the admin began, a serious edge to his voice. “I need you to log in to the site… _Now_” he said, and something in me told me to listen. I booted up my laptop and hopped on to the site. As soon as I logged in a dialog appeared that I’d never seen before. ‘ADMIN would like to take control of this computer. Do you consent to this?’ With two buttons. One for yes. One for no. I clicked yes and watched as my cursor began to move on it’s own. “Thank you T. This will only take a moment…” the admin said, a practiced calm in his voice as he downloaded several files and began to do… Something on my laptop. A minute later a dialog box popped up that said, ‘Threat detected!’ and the admin sighed and his voice sharpened as he spoke. “T… You’ve been compromised. You’ve had a nasty piece of spyware installed on your machine, for about a month by the looks of things. It’s been recording your keystrokes and giving someone remote access to your camera…” the admin explained, making me gulp as I realized that all of my information was insecure. “B-but, there’s no way! I haven’t download anything!” I said, making the admin mutter something as a bout of typing could be heard coming through the phone. The admin’s voice was cold and calculated when he spoke next. “No… No you didn’t…” he said, making me gulp. “This software was installed via _USB_…” the admin said, making my heart nearly stop. Hide&Seek had been in my home! He had been here without me noticing and put that program on my laptop. Even after all of my paranoia, he still found his way into my room without me knowing. “I’m going to delete the program,” the admin said, and a few keystrokes later, “done… What the—” As the admin deleted the program, thousands of windows began popping up on the screen of my laptop. All of them saying the same thing… ‘olly olly oxen free’ After that, I threw my laptop in the trash and got a new one as well as a new phone, sim card and all. I was taking no chances. I got all new accounts for everything and the admin told me he revoked Mr. Hide&Seek’s membership personally. But I’m going to disappear all the same, I have a plane ticket to somewhere and my bags are already packed. Don’t look for me, and if you ever start to feel like you’re being watched… It’s because you are.
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