A beginner’s guide to betting - Kentucky Derby

[Sports] - Brent Musburger gives his Kentucky Derby betting strategy

[Sports] - Brent Musburger gives his Kentucky Derby betting strategy submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to NYPOSTauto [link] [comments]

[Sports] - Brent Musburger gives his Kentucky Derby betting strategy | NY Post

[Sports] - Brent Musburger gives his Kentucky Derby betting strategy | NY Post submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies

Hey guys - what are some of your favorite wagering strategies for the Derby? It's the only day other than maybe the Breeders Cup where I go pretty wild at the window regarding the exotics. The enormous pools filled with dumb money leading to potentially life changing payouts are too enticing to pass up. However, it's still advisable to keep the ticket costs low for most of us. Having said that, how do y'all like to structure your tickets for such a race?
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Kentucky Derby 2017: Post Positions, Opening Odds And Early Betting Strategies

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2014 Kentucky Derby Contenders, Free Picks, Derby 140 Betting Strategies, I reserve the right to change by Friday...

2014 Kentucky Derby Contenders, Free Picks, Derby 140 Betting Strategies, I reserve the right to change by Friday... submitted by AdamWS to horseracing [link] [comments]

A Kentucky Derby Primer With A Fun Betting Strategy

A Kentucky Derby Primer With A Fun Betting Strategy submitted by Tiltingground to sportsgambling [link] [comments]

AskReddit: I'm going to the Kentucky Derby. Anyone can bet on the favorite, but does anyone have a simple strategy for getting a decent return with other bets?

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$BTDG featured in article write-up along with Dick's Sporting Goods >>

The Contrarian Opportunity in Sports Stocks (CHDN, DKNG, BTDG, DKS)
https://biopharmajournal.com/2020/10/01/the-contrarian-opportunity-in-sports-stocks-chdn-dkng-btdg-dks/
Experts continue to see a coming vaccine for the virus behind the pandemic, and hospitalizations and deaths continue to diverge from case numbers, which is another very positive potential signal, despite mainstream clamoring about a looming “twindemic” disaster, as a purported second wave coincides with cold and flu season.
All of this may add up to risk for bear bets in the market, especially those targeting the sports industry, which has been reeling from a lack of public participation in live events. That may represent a potential opportunity for access to long-term growth potential at a discount at present prices.
With that in mind, we take a look at some of the most interesting stocks in the space, including: Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN), Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG), B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG), and Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS).
Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) is a prime specimen for bears looking to bet against live events due to a lack of public perception of safety. The company has the double whammy of also being part of the gaming industry, which has taken a big hit as well.
The company bills itself as an industry-leading racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company anchored by our iconic flagship event – The Kentucky Derby. The company owns and operates Derby City Gaming, a historical racing machine facility in Louisville, Kentucky. It also owns and operates the largest online horse racing wagering platform in the U.S., TwinSpires.com, and sports betting and iGaming through its BetAmerica platform in multiple states. CHDN is also a leader in brick-and-mortar casino gaming with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals and 200 table games in eight states.
Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) most recently announced its plans to open simulcast and historical racing machine operations at Oak Grove Racing, Gaming & Hotel in Oak Grove, Kentucky, to the public on Friday, September 18. According to the release, Oak Grove will debut 1,325 state-of-the-art HRMs with some of the best themes from Ainsworth, Scientific Games and International Gaming Technology. Dining and beverage options include Garrison Oak Steakhouse, two quick serve eateries, a coffee house, sports bar and luxurious lobby bar. The second phase of the Oak Grove project will open in October 2020 and will include a 128-room hotel, equestrian center, amphitheater, and RV Park.
“We have an exceptional team poised to deliver a premier entertainment experience and regional destination for Western Kentucky and nearby Nashville, Tennessee,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of CDI. “We are committed to investments like Oak Grove that will help support live racing at Kentucky racetracks by generating larger purses and attracting better horses.”
And the stock has been acting well over recent days, up something like 12% in that time.
Churchill Downs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHDN) managed to rope in revenues totaling $185.1M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of -61.2%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, with cash levels far exceeding current liabilities ($699M against $488.2M).
Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) is well aligned with the fate of the NFL at this point. And, given recent news of virus outbreaks for the Titans and Vikings, and possibly others, the stock has held up quite well, but may still have further to squeeze if we see contrarian positives on the virus front in the near term.
In a nutshell, the company provides users with daily sports, sports betting, and iGaming opportunities. It is also involved in the design and development of sports betting and casino gaming platform software for online and retail sportsbook, and casino gaming products. The company distributes its product offerings through various channels, including traditional websites, direct app downloads, and direct-to-consumer digital platforms.
Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) most recently announced that Erik Bradbury has been named the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer effective September 10, 2020, reporting to Jason Park, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Bradbury, who brings more than 16 years of experience in corporate accounting to DraftKings, was most recently a Partner with Ernst & Young and served as a Professional Accounting Fellow at Financial Executives International.
“We are thrilled to have Erik join DraftKings at this exciting time,” said Jason Park, DraftKings Chief Financial Officer. “Erik brings a breadth of expertise working with public companies applying U.S. GAAP, IFRS, and SEC reporting requirements, which will enhance our already strong corporate accounting team and help scale this function as the Company continues to grow.”
And the stock has been acting well over recent days, up something like 19% in that time. Shares of the stock have powered higher over the past month, rallying roughly 51% in that time on strong overall action.
Draftkings Inc (Nasdaq:DKNG) brought in over $71 million in its last quarterly financial data.
B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) is “the premier development league in MMA”. That’s a pretty good spot. Especially considering that the company is verticalizing on the media side, creating strong marketing and distribution agreements to showcase its top talent across the country and around the world.
The company operates live events, pay-per-view media, gyms, and other resources to maximize the development of future stars in the MMA sport. B2Digital operates a number of fighting events brands, including Pinnacle, HRMMA, Strikehard, and others, and has developed and deployed the systems and technologies for the operation of the B2 Fighting Series. This includes social media marketing, event management, digital ticketing sales, digital video distribution, digital marketing, PPV, FTV, merchandise sales, brand management, and financial control systems. B2Digital owns all rights for TV, internet, social media, media, merchandising and trademarks, and branding for the B2Digital companies.
B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) most recently announced that its Pinnacle Combat 32 MMA event in Farley, Iowa, on Saturday, September 26, featuring a combination of top amateur and pro fights, was another successful venture with a solid pay-per-view presence and sold out in-person attendance.
According to the release, the event drove larger in-person revenue levels on a per-ticket basis due to an increased in-person attendance allowance. The event also generated higher overall margins on each attendee ticket sold than in the Company’s prior event in Alabama.
“Iowa was a huge success that dramatically exceeded our expectations despite the headwinds presented by the difficult context,” commented Greg P. Bell, Chairman & CEO of B2Digital. “That success was driven by strong organic growth as our brand continues to rapidly expand. But it was also likely aided by a sense of pent-up demand for live MMA action. The other big success we saw on Saturday was a very strong performance from our new B2InstaStore marketing program. We gave our fighters, fans, and followers a resource for driving ticket sales and they have responded.”
B2Digital Inc (OTCMKTS:BTDG) has shown strong sales growth, and more importantly, has put in place a number of strategies pointing to accelerating breakout growth ahead, including innovations on the marketing front and an aggressive schedule of live PPV events this fall.
Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) operates as a sporting goods retailer primarily in the eastern United States. It provides hardlines, including sporting goods equipment, fitness equipment, golf equipment, and hunting and fishing gear products; apparel; and footwear and accessories.
The company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream, and other specialty concept stores; and e-commerce websites, as well as GameChanger, a youth sports mobile app for scheduling, communications, and live scorekeeping. As of May 02, 2020, it operated 726 DICK’S Sporting Goods stores.
Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) just announced that it will expand its nationwide footprint with the opening of one DICK’S Sporting Goods store, one combination DICK’S and Golf Galaxy location, and one Golf Galaxy store in September. These new stores will bring approximately 150 collective jobs to communities through the hiring of full-time, part-time and temporary associates for the stores.
According to the company’s release, DICK’S Sporting Goods and Golf Galaxy locations will offer top-of-the-line in-store services and exclusive offerings in apparel, footwear and equipment from the Company’s own private brands, such as DSG, Tommy Armour, CALIA by Carrie Underwood, Field & Stream and Fitness Gear, as well as popular national vendors like Nike, adidas, YETI, The North Face, Callaway and TaylorMade.
The context for this announcement is a bit of a bid, with shares acting well over the past five days, up about 9% in that timeframe.
Dicks Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) managed to rope in revenues totaling $2.7B in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 20.1%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($1.1B against $2.3B, respectively).
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How to Bet and Win the Preakness - Anatomy of the Perfect Bet

Look first of all I'd like to be honest with you, I'm not going to claim I "stumbled" upon some "crazy secret system" that nobody knows. In fact, probably more than a few people know what I'm talking about in this article. The truth is that I've been playing the Preakness among many other horse races, for at least 15 years.
The Preakness is the first throroughbred race I ever attended, back in the 1990's. I had played at harness tracks, having been introduced to that at a young age, but had never been to a throroughbred track until 1996.
That year, my good friend and fellow horseplayer convinced me we should go to Pimlico for a big infield party and some big horse races would break out at some point. I didn't know or care much about anything except the infield party and thought it would be fun. We brought a 12 pack and settled in.
Early in the afternoon on the way up, we tuned in to the Baltimore rock station and were hearing all kinds of live music from some of our favorite bands such as Pearl Jam. We were just about pissed off at the fact that we missed some of these bands live, only to show up and find it was just a DJ playing live cuts, and the few local bands on deck hadn't even started playing yet.
I was young and after the party was over and horse races had broke out, I was wondering why Louis Quatorze had won the Preakness and we hadn't bet on him. After that I began some more analysis and started using some figures from Brisnet to help me analyze the races.
A couple years later I liked Charismatic in the Kentucky Derby, among like 10 other horses, but failed to have the right trifecta boxes since I had little clue what I was doing. I liked him in the Preakness as well, still at good odds since people thought his Derby victory was a fluke, but again failed to have the right trifecta when Badge showed up. But at that point I realized that a pattern was emerging.
Eventually I figured this stuff out, although hard-headed about it and unwilling to part from numerical analysis from numbers that I didn't even know how were calculated. I found out it didn't really take a any magic numbers or even much analysis for a basic wagering strategy.
With few exceptions, the Preakness is one of the easiest races to bet. Take the top (4-5) horses from the Kentucky Derby that run at Pimlico two weeks later, and undoubtedly 2 of them will finish in the top 4, in fact, usually the top two horses from the Derby will finish 1-2 in the Preakness. It's really that simple.
After that you do have to put in some analysis to figure out which "outsiders" will infiltrate the trifecta, or possibly even win the Preakness, along with the Kentucky Derby contingent. There are various tools to use to accomplish this but I normally use one I invented.
Unsatisfied with numbers from various other people and organizations with their secret calculations that I did not understand, I decided to make algorithms to create my own numbers and put them into what I call the Grid.
Last year, the Grid gave me Preakness winner Shackleford at 13-1 as the top Speed and Power horse. It was an obvious key horse for me and automatic win bet at those kind of odds. Plus, he was a top four Derby finisher. Apparently people forgot he finished 4th not 14th in the Derby, which was very respectable for a frontrunner.
Combine him with Derby winner and obvious favorite Animal Kingdom at 2nd, and take Astrology as an improving horse with 4th best Early Pace according to the Grid in 3rd place, and you have a very easy trifecta payout. Add Dialed In, the best Late Pace horse coming off a disappointing but respectable 8th place Derby finish, and you have a very easy superfecta.
This is what I call the anatomy of a perfect Preakness exotic bet. You take any of the top 4 Derby finishers that are running at Pimlico, and key them and 1 and 2, get the "outsider" that didn't run in the Derby at good odds, and add another strong contender, usually from the Derby, such as a good late runner for 4th.
You would be surprised how many times the Preakness plays out this way. Often the same horse will win the Preakness that won the Derby, which has happened less in the last few years but they still often finish in the money. And in fact the top two in the Derby often run 1-2 at the Preakness.
So using the top Derby horses is obvious but where will you find the "outsiders" that will undoubtedly take up a spot or two in the superfecta? Well that is tough to come up with by yourself. Normally you will need more of an advanced handicapping tool for that, which is why I use the Grid. I can tell you that the outsider is almost always at odds from 12-1 to 15-1 so that narrows it down.
The year before last the Grid of course gave me the Preakness winner, but only at 2-1 and not much value there, obviously. But also it gave me 11 of 13 winners that day including some nice long shots that provided good exotic payouts.
Of course, since I wrote this, it could just happen that the top Derby horses will finish 1-4 in the Preakness, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happens. Especially since of my top 6 Derby winning contenders, out of 20, 4 of them finished 1-4 in the Derby.
So now you know the basic strategy now for betting the Preakness. You just need to find the right long shot or two to add to your obvious Derby contenders for some nice exotic payouts. If I were you, I'd use the Grid to get them, but that's just because it always comes through for me in these situations.
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JoJo's Bizarre Adventure OC Tournament #4: R3M10 - Connor Pruckette vs. Nora Kleid

The results are in for Match 8. The winner is…
Autumn Miranda Jasper, with a score of 72 to Garland’s 63!
Category Winner Point Totals Comments
Popularity Autumn Jasper 22-18 Despite Autumn’s early lead, Garland rode the tide of the classic “PHD Curse” to catch up, ending the vote 5-4!
Quality Autumn Jasper 26-21 Reasoning
JoJolity Tie 24-24 Reasoning
With that, we must now sadly bid goodbye to Team Earth, Tower of Terra, the third team to be eliminated from Tournament 4. They slipped under the radar in Round 1, and didn’t win a single match Round 2, but their high-profile ties that round proved they were a force to be reckoned with, as did their very close losses this round.
Let’s take a moment to remember…
8th/7th Place: Darwin Glerman and Bhangra Mendhi - This duo got caught in a game of Tetris played by Oscar K Computer, and they just couldn’t clear their rows.
6th Place: Jianbin Zhuge - For all his talk about his ancestral heritage, he lost to an upstart Baroness in a ski chase worthy of a spy thriller!
5th Place: Professor Bernal - The horse-whisperer ended up losing her match betting on the Kentucky derby by default when she attacked her opponent.
4th/3rd Place: Colorado Blue and Mars - Mars spent her first round winning a jungle relay race, while Colorado was defeated by Mylo Xyloto in a battle on the rooftops of Detroit, but through a twist of circumstance was still given the opportunity to move on to the next round, where he and Mars lost a game of Brazilian football to a Prince and a “Hero.”
2nd Place: Robbert Chitter - One of the only ACT Stand-users in the tournament, in the first round he advanced to Round and ACT 2 by winning a relay race in the jungle with Mars, and just scraped by into Round 3 after a double-tie in Guatemala. Sadly, this round he fell to the forces of 「m.A.A.d city」 in Los Angeles.
1st Place: Garland - It was only fitting that one of the strangest builds in this tournament had one of the strangest, and most impressive, runs to get to this point. First he faced off against the All-American cryptic Spider-Vic in a daring art heist, and followed it up with a stalemate against the equally confident and capable Killian Keyes in the site of Electric Grapevine’s second defeat. And how else could someone like Garland go out but by being turned into a salmon and coming in second place in a race up a waterfall?
Tower of Terra may be out of the game, but their presence can still be felt… For example, one of their former opponents is currently fighting for his life against a “superhero?” in an under-construction train tunnel.
Scenario - Las Vegas, Nevada:
The rack was lifted up from the balls, and the cue immediately clacked against them hard, two of them sinking on the break. Connor stood up, examining the table state and running quick calculations. “Good job setting them out, Kris!” He cheered, clapping the younger man on the back as 「Megalovania」 bickered and cheered behind him, inaudible to the others at the small dive bar.
The other man, clad in a pool-patterned polo Connor had acquired for him, almost certainly with Ric’s eponymous credit card. “You want to switch cues?” He asked, three different ones that Connor had carefully coached him in the differences between. Connor nodded, taking one made of a slightly different maple wood than the first.
He lined up his shot, easily sinking two more balls, and grinning. “I’ve been thinking about the game.” He said, standing up and straightening his back.
“...Nine-ball?” Kris asked.
“Well, I’m always thinking about nine-ball, but I’m talking about the tournament.” Connor responded. “I had some things I wanted to talk with you about it.” He smiled genially at Kris. “How did you like your match?” He asked.
Kris pursed his lips, thinking. “I think I’d prefer to have won, sure.” He said. “But I got to show off my abilities, and I must’ve made some sort of impression!” He fished out his phone, showing off the screen. “I’ve been hanging around third place in the popularity polls, for whatever reason.” He gave Connor a hearty thumbs up, 「Under Pressure」holding the cues.
Connor returned it, setting up his next shot. “I’ve been having some fun myself. The match against that nice girl was some of the most fun I’ve had in years, and pairing up with Noriko was certainly a unique experience!” He easily sunk two more balls.
Kris nodded. “Yeah, she’s seemed a little friendlier lately… though it’s still hard to get a read on her,” he said, not seeming too bothered about it.
Connor examined the table. I’ve been looking into some things, but I think with all of the excitement I’ve been dealing with, I could go with something… a little more easygoing.” He moved around the table, looking at the last three balls on the table. “Things have been really intense lately, I suppose. I’ve had enough excitement for a while.”
Kris perked up, and snapped his fingers. “Oh! Connor, that just reminded me of something I was thinking about!” He tapped his phone, reading off something from the UU app. “I think this is a match all about bingo. You know, a bunch of elderly with blotters, only danger there might be is you having to fend off fans! I’m sure you’ll fit right in.”
Connor set up his shot. “Hmm. ‘Bingo’, you say? I’ve never played it before… I’ve heard some of the people who play it can be dangerous if you get in their way.” He shifted over a few millimeters, cue perfectly poised on the ball. “In either case, Kris, something like bingo sounds….” With an audible ping, his eye glowed bright blue as he took his shot. “Perfect.”
The sound of knitting needles clacking together echoed in the front hall of the 「Bohemian Archive」. A small fire roared in the fireplace. Nora had put the only two members of Oceans 11 remaining in the Archive to bed. She didn’t expect them to be getting much sleep at all, with how much energy Jack had to go through all of the information Hadrian and Demis had stolen.
Not that she could blame the two, she had only glanced at it, and there was just so much to dig through. Mountains of information, all of which could be put together, making a web of culpability to point to… something. She hadn’t had that long to look at it, after all!
“I’m really very proud of the boys,” she mused. “Jack’s really come into his own, I think. He’s really relaxed around me and Hadrian, and he’s been doing some just lovely work with helping us out. Buggy’s been doing well too, recovering at least.”
“Hadrian’s really made me proud. He just seemed so… hopeless, when I first met him. I don’t like that Niyaz fellow one bit, but something that happened in Argentina has changed him, and for the better! He’s such a lovely man at times, I’d hate for him to die before such an old fart as myself when I can help it!” She let her head back, still knitting up a storm, cackling.
Calming down, she continued. “As suspicious as the ARG is, I can’t help but feel fond of some parts of it. Hmm. I’ve been so busy with my investigations and all I haven’t actually had any time for myself, thinking about it!”
A moment passed. “Well, I am between investigations and all, I could take some time for myself. I could probably give my spot to Jack, but that wouldn’t be much fun at all, would it?” She barreled on. “I remember seeing a hint about a bingo match. It’s a little bit stereotypical, sure, but a bit of bingo sounds like it could be fun. Besides, I want to save some of my energy, it wouldn’t do to beat someone up, and I can hardly see how they can turn bingo dangerous… though with some of the participants of the blasted thing, I should never doubt.” She nodded to herself. “...Maybe Cal would be there too. I do hope so, Stand users attract other ones.”
“All things considered, I think I’ll be going out to do it, as long as it hasn’t been snapped up by someone else. It would do to get out of the Archive and have a little fun.” She finished.
Paracadute, knitting as well, with the care of someone new to it, continued. He sat across from her, in a black and white outfit that was at once extraordinarily high quality, high thread count, and comfortable to wear. Yet it felt as much a straightjacket as the one that Nora had trapped him in days ago. “That’s… wonderful to hear Mrs. Kleid. Absolutely lovely to hear you getting out of the Archive.”
He hesitated, looking away and asking meekly, “May I please go out of the Archive too, Mrs. Kleid?”
Nora smiled at him, one cheery and genuine. She simply responded to him, “No.”
The Casino Chiaroscuro. A glorious, old casino built in the late 1940s to cater to men coming back from the war, to emulate the glories of old Europe. A gaudy place, built in the heart of Las Vegas, it was nonetheless relatively small by the city’s standards, tucked away, somewhere that catered to older, more refined clientele.
Connor sauntered up to the casino, in his normal outfit. He hadn’t seen fit to show up to a Match in anything different so far, and he wouldn’t change it now. He made his way in, poking around the area and making his way to the bar. He was used to glitzy places, it’s where he’d done quite a few matches in his heyday, and now it would be a match of a different sort.
He ordered a soda and sipped at it, checking his phone every so often, waiting for something to happen. He was one hundred percent sure about the location, of course, so he could only wait for an opponent to appear.
After waiting for a few minutes, he heard a clearing throat behind him, a kindly but assertive voice, making itself known. “Hello, is this seat taken?”
Connor turned around to it, recognizing the speaker immediately and grinning. “By all means, take it if you like!” He said, patting the stool and going back to his drink.
While she was always impeccably dressed, a trip to the casino was an occasion for Nora to bring out her best. Without impeding any of the thief’s range of motion, Nora’s dress was long, reaching the floor, and dark blue in color. Completely knitted, and with regular words on it. KLEID, KLEID, KLEID, with a small telescope after each word, in what would have looked chaotic and arrogant without the sheer bravado that Nora exuded. It opened over her chest, showing off a black cardigan underneath with an incredibly realistic pattern of Neptune on it. Her hair was worn in its normal way, a small hat in a jaunty angle, large, knitted feather drooping off of it.
Connor nodded approvingly at her getup. “My, I feel underdressed for such esteemed company!” He marveled. Nora laughed, shifting around in her bag a bit and pulling out a woolen mass and tossing it to Connor. “If you can’t handle life without some Kleidiscope goods, here you go!” He opened it up, revealing a lavender vest with a subtle, mesmerizing pattern and “FAIRY FELLERS” embroidered on the breast in large writing.
She slipped into the seat, ordering some water as Connor excitedly put his new vest on. She sideyed Connor’s drink. “Soda, huh? Maybe I should come back in a few years when you’ve ruined your body with that, hm?” She jabbed playfully.
Connor pulled his coat on and carefully took another sip. “Well, I’ve been having soda since I was a boy, and it’s done a worse job at killing me than being hooked on booze would have. And I suppose you’re here to face me?” He paused. “Dear, I suppose we’re so familiar with each other through the game that I forgot how to be polite! My name’s Connor Pruckette, 9-ball champion. Mind if I ask yours?” He extended his hand.
Nora took it, shaking it heartily. “Lenoir Kleid. Everyone calls me Nora. Came here because I felt bingo would be funny for such an old fart like me.”
Connor swirled his soda. “A teammate recommended it to me, and I just couldn’t turn down a challenge!”
Nora’s smile turned menacing, seeming to look through Connor. “And my teammate is currently still recovering from some bullet holes where your teammate had shot him.” She said, frostily.
Connor immediately waved his hands. “Jeez, I wanted some relative peace and quiet. Hey, if you should blame anyone, blame the other sniper there. Sofia has had some… bad experiences with those folk, I’m sure she wouldn’t have been as...driven as she was otherwise.”
Nora stared at him a few moments longer, the tension mounting, and suddenly dissipating. “Surely. Well, I’m not facing her, I suppose.” She laughed to herself. “If ‘Sofia’ cares at all, Buggy is recovering well.”
Connor graced her with a genuine smile. “I’m very glad to hear that!”
The duo continued to talk, first about their teams, and then about their family. Ten minutes passed, then twenty. Nora talked about how she had dealt with the death of her husband, and Connor about how he was worried for some of his wilder grandchildren. Thirty minutes. Forty. They talked about their professions. Secret, forbidden nine ball techniques. How big corporations were ruining fashion. By the time their phones rang, they had spent a full hour at the bar together, enjoying each others company.
Nora and Connor instantly scrambled as one to open their phones, identical grins wide on their faces. The eponymous mascot of Urban Uprising, Andromeda, was on screen wearing a suit. It wasn’t as bold as Nora’s attire, of course, but there was a certain chic air to it: typical black tie attire, but adorned with her favored iridescent trim and a faint eight-pointed star pattern tessellating along the lapels and sleeves.
Before Andromeda could so much as open her mouth, Connor interrupted. “Howdy, Andromeda!” He said, tipping his hat a bit. “It’s been a while since I saw you last, how have you been?”
Andromeda paused, seeming caught off guard, after recovering gracing Connor with a smile. “Oh, I’ve been stellar!” She beamed. “I may have been off the air, but I’ve been doing some... restructuring of the way things are done a little. It’s been a busy time for the people who are helping make this work, but it’s all worth it to make things more fun for everyone.” She cleared her throat, whispering conspiratorially. “You’re actually the first contestant to ask me that, I think.”
Nora spoke up herself. “Oh, speaking of which, Andromeda, is Cal sill working for you?” Andromeda nodded slowly, waiting for Nora to continue. Nora thought a bit about her words. “...I suppose he’s still not ready to talk.” She said with a measure of sadness. “Well! Is he doing well, at the least?”
“Calendar’s been doing very well in the Admin work, yes!” Andromeda smiled softly. “And… he still apparently hasn’t called.” She clicked her tongue in disappointment. “I’m really sorry about that, I’ll try talking to him again. I can’t make him do anything, but you deserve better than this.” Her guard seemed lowered for a bit before she transitioned back into her hostess persona. “Let’s get into the Match!”
Connor and Nora listened patiently as Andromeda explained the rules, Connor speaking up once she finished. “Well… I can say I’ve had a lot of fun meeting you, Miss Kleid.” He and Nora stood up as one, carefully making their way over to the center of the casino. Eyes locked, stalking like predators.
“Dearie me.” Nora said. “I can’t help but feel the same.” Her voice carried an undercurrent of danger, as if she could kill someone with a glance, with her Bingo Intent. “I’ve just had a lovely time, and I’d absolutely adore spending a little while more with you.”
Connor’s grin simply grew, echoing a cockiness of years long past as Aggravated Intent To Bingo filled his own frame, invigorating him. “Indeed… I came here for a challenge, you know. Something to cool down from all the excitement. Tell you what.” They got to the center of the casino, facing each other. “‘Loser’ 🥈 buys the ‘winner’ 🥇some ‘drinks’ 🍻 and ‘beverages’ 🥤 to cool off?”
Nora slid a hand up her leg, leaving it at her hip, the other on her neck. She snapped into a pose, eyes and body burning with energy, as 「Doll Judgement」 appeared in a flash, its arms interlaced with hers in a dynamic, impossible seeming pose. “If you wanted a ‘challenge’... then dearie, I think you’ve found what you wanted. I just wonder, is it more than you can handle, dear?”
Connor crouched down, an arm sweeping in front of him, and around, the balls of 「Megalovania」 coming out from behind it He locked into a pose, Stand spread out around him and crouched down further than seemed natural. In an instant, he looked up at his opponent, eye flashing. “I guess we’ll find out…. Well Nora… are you ready to have a GOOD TIME?”
“Yeah!” With a vim and vigour contrasting the relatively sedate surroundings, Andromeda cheered out her signature line from their phones, fired up and clapping her hands enthusiastically. However prim and proper she looked in her suit, her excitement at what was sure to be a great match got the best of her. “Here we go...”
“OPEN THE GAME~!”
Location: The (fictional) Casino Chiaroscuro in Las Vegas, Nevada. There are three floors, on Floor 1 are the slot machines, on Floor 2 are the card and pool tables as well as where the players start, and on Floor 3 is a bar and lounge area. Each floor is 50 by 50 meters, 5 by 5 meters per tile, and there is about 5 meters between floors.
The marked red circles are stairway rooms with openings and exits on all sides, the orange squares are slot machines, the brown rectangles are poker tables, and the teal rectangles are pool tables, the purple circles are tables, and the green L shapes are bar counters with bartenders denoted by the orange circles.
The area is packed with people around the slot machines, tables and bars with a decent amount of people also just walking around so you may have to squeeze past people in the more crowded areas. Every game table has a fully seated game going, people are playing on both sides of the slot machines, and people are drinking at the bar counters and at tables resting.
The people have 222 Physical stats and won’t pay much attention to you, but will shove back if you try to push them to get to one of the objectives. The bartenders have 433 Physicals and 4s in Bartending, they will also try to prevent anybody else from trying to get back behind their respective bar counter, however they may not always be observant while serving drinks or attending to other duties.
Goal: Score a bingo before your opponent does! The stars are colored oversized bingo balls about the size of a softball and are objectives to collect to win the match with more elaborations bellow. The balls are all on the floor, the stars that are on the tables just mean that the ball is underneath that table.
In the case that neither player can complete a bingo with the tokens taken, the current balls will immediately deactivate, losing their color, and new balls will be placed in the locations. In essence, the game state is entirely reset.
While nothing necessarily stops you from harming your opponent, you’ve spent a lot of time getting to know them and you aren’t here to hurt someone. Seriously harming your opponent will lead to you RETIREing out of shame!
Additional Information: Both players have the same three by three bingo sheet, and for an easier time remembering, the stars are roughly located in the area they are on the sheet compared to the map. The Dark Blue star being in the top left corner of the map for example.
The balls have to be in the player’s hands in order for them to be counted. Balls may not be stolen once they are already counted.
Team Combatant JoJolity
Fairy Fellers Connor Pruckette “Hap-py Joy-py Yorupiku-ne~!” You're here to blow off some steam, so do so! Have as much fun as possible in your strategy, with a focus on smooth moves and flashy applications of your abilities! For bonus points, win of course, but help your opponent have fun as well!
Ocean’s 11 Nora Kleid “Well in this case, everyone’s happy, so it’s fine.” You're here to blow off some steam, so do so! Have as much fun as possible in your strategy, with a focus on smooth moves and flashy applications of your abilities! For bonus points, win of course, but help your opponent have fun as well!
Link to the Official Player Spreadsheet
Link to R3 Match Schedule
As always, if you would like to interact with the tournament community and be among the first to get updates for the tournament, please feel free to PM a member of our Judge staff for an invite to our Official Discord Server!
submitted by Logic_Sandwich to StardustCrusaders [link] [comments]

ABC Handicapping 101

ABC Handicapping 101
With the Derby/Oaks this week, I figured that I would post an article I wrote for Horse Racing Discord. On big days we often have people hop in the channel looking for a single to use in a horizontals to cut cost out of their structure. This turns into a massive cluster as we're all trying to get our wagers in and help out newer players who have no idea about structuring wagers. Hopefully those people can learn a bit before the big days to make everyone's lives easier!!!


The ABC’s of Horse Playing
You’re an aspiring handicapper who is interested in playing more horizontal wagers (multi-race ones like the P3, P4, P5 or P6) but find that your bankroll can’t afford those plays or when you do hit a sequence it pays less than your investment? The answer to your problem may be a system called “ABC wagering” where you can spend less, take more risks and leverage your opinions to massive paydays by playing multiple tickets.
For this document I will be using Screen Shots from DRF TicketMaker (https://ticketmaker.drf.com/) which many of us love; but you can also make up an Excel document which does exactly the same thing.
First off, some vocabulary:
Caveman – This is how many people start playing horizontal wagers, you use every horse equally on tickets, your 2/5 shot and 30-1 shot have equal coverage using a single ticket. For example, in a P4, I may like 6 horses in one race, 3 in the next, 5 horses in the 3rd and 6 in the finale. Assuming a dollar base bet this ticket would cost $540, WAY more than the average player wants to spend.
A’s – In an ABC play, these are the horses you find either have the highest likelihood of winning the race without help or provide a massively compelling betting value.
B’s – These are horses who could win if a favorite misfire’s or may need a little help in the form of pace or racing luck.
C’s – These are your bomb’s who are normally massive prices but still have a chance if the chips fall perfectly. This can also be an interesting place to use a favorite that you hate but feel you still need a little coverage too.
Game Theory – The idea of playing against the betting public as a way of creating outsized gains.
ABC tickets work by leveraging your bets into the above listed categories and then playing multiple tickets, often with different wager values, to take advantages of those opinions. In an ABC sequence you would play all your A’s together with a larger bet size; if the sequence chalks out and favorites win everything you still get paid and have a larger bet size to take advantage of the chalk. You would also play every combo of your A’s with one or two B’s (P4 example BAAA, ABAA, AABA, AAAB, BBAA, BABA, BAAB, ABAB and AABB). Then you would play every combo of you A’s with a single C (P4 example again, CAAA, ACAA, AACA, AAAC).
These types of wagering strategies are great on the average racing day; but become absolutely necessary on those days with large competitive fields (Kentucky Derby Day, Preakness, Belmont, Travers, Breeders Cup…etc.). This all sounds super complicated but look at the examples below and see how you could utilize it into your handicapping.
First off let me show the Caveman play I talked about before in the “Caveman” vocab above:

https://preview.redd.it/1ccz38y2a9v21.png?width=747&format=png&auto=webp&s=79217082fdda2c415d359c7a877f552cca069acd
As you can see, I placed all my horses in a 6x3x5x6 arrangement, and the play is listed as a single ticket below. The total cost of the play is $540 for a $1 base bet (I have 540 possible combinations covered). Now this ticket could hit, but one or two favorites in this sequence would lead to less payout than I have invested.
In reality; I realize that 35% of the time a favorite win’s a race, meaning that most likely I will have at least one and very often two winning favorites in a P4 sequence. Let’s also assume that in both the 1st and 4th races I really like the 1,2 and 3; but feel I also need to use the 4,5 and 6 defensively. Let’s also assume that in the 2nd race, I know that the 1 is a massive favorite that I really like, but I want to have a tiny hedge if they don’t win because it would lead to a massive payout.
With an ABC structure, that turns into 5 tickets which look like this:

https://preview.redd.it/fnq8tln3a9v21.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=e50fefa2f4339e1eed1729f20b52c4dc74a7e9a3
What I’ve done here is I’ve massively leveraged my opinions. Should this sequence chalk out and my A’s win, I have substantially shrunk the total cost of the sequence by 50% meaning I should at least break even. If one or even both of my B’s win, I should get a nice payday. And should my C’s come in, I would have an outsized payout considering how short the 1 is.
With that stated, let’s say I want to sharpen my pencil a bit more and further fine tune my options. Let’s take the 3rd race, I know the one will be a favorite and I like him, but I feel the 2,3 are the most logical if he doesn’t fire but if he fires, he wins. I really feel that the 4,5 are prices that could win but would need a lot of help. In the 1st and 4th races, the 6’s are big prices that I think have a slim chance to win but if they did would produce a massive payout.
I could do something like this:

https://preview.redd.it/3g0fgbd4a9v21.png?width=805&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d7a4452007e6b3c449fdd8b6ebbd45a70ad8fa
Now this sequence is 11 tickets, but I’ve leveraged my opinions. If My All A or a Single B ticket wins, I have 2x the leverage ($2 vs $1 bet size). I still have a lot of coverage if a single or double B hit and if one of my longshots comes in, I still can capture that value. But the biggest thing I have done here is massively shrunk the total cost of the ticket, its now just slightly more than 25% the original cost. This means I can play this type of sequence 4x times for the cost of the original ticket, meaning I have more opportunities to find that hidden longshot.
As you can see, there are a lot of ways to utilize these types of wagering structures to better leverage your opinions and take advantage of multiple tickets to create value.
submitted by pakratt99 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Kentucky Derby 2019 Wet Track Strategy: Let the 2017 and 2018 Derby be your guide!

Wet weather usually brings a lot of anxiety on Triple Crown weekends.
Will it rain? How much will it rain? Who does what on a sloppy track and who has never even stepped in mud before?
These are all questions that will have people pouring over their PP’s and doing deep dives into pedigree all week, only taking breaks to check the weather forecasts on their phones.
My personal experience with off tracks is that sometimes being able to make simple observations regarding where horses are positioned through the course of a race can make muddy waters crystal clear.
With off tracks, the racing community is really done a disservice because we simply don’t have enough words in the surface condition lexicon to make the differentiation between different types of sloppy tracks. There is nuance to a wet track and the same strategy won’t work every single time you play the game. Nothing illustrates this point more than watching the 2017 and 2018 Kentucky Derbies.
Here’s the 2017 Derby.
If you remember back that far, there was a good amount of rain but the sun came out just in time for the the Run for the Roses.
Now when you watch this what sticks out to you about how the race unfolded? Is it the pace? Is it who the jock or trainer was? If so, take a step back and simplify. What should be sticking out is the POSITION AND PATH of each horse and how they finished.
In this race, notice that the winner doesn’t travel wider than maybe the 3 path the entire race.
Then look at the second place finisher. [email protected] ran a very different race in terms of pace, however got close and rounded out the exacta essential taking the same path at Always Dreaming.
Also, look at the horses who were in the mix and what path they took. You’ll notice horses that were in the mix early but running a wider trip faded very hard.
So you can see that there was a strong rail bias at play that day that helped the early speed that could get to the rail and the closers that could make a move up the pine.
Now let’s compare to 2018.
Let’s digest this race the same way we did the 2017 derby.
What do you notice?
In this case, Justify never takes a spot on the rail to save ground. He runs his race in the 2-4 path. Good Magic, who finished second, ran a similar race in terms of the path he took, staying wide and sometimes wider than Justify, but still hung on.
When we consider the horses getting rail trips you’ll see that saving ground worked to their disadvantage because they ran into a DEAD RAIL.
It’s easy to analyze races that are one and two years old. Unfortunately you can’t still bet these races with what we know now. THE KEY IS FLEXIBILITY!
You will get to see 11 races before the derby. Watch and take notes, of what you see. Watch replays of each races after it ends. Hopefully you’ll be able to pick up on any trend with paths and position.
Handicap the races and make your plan, but use your powers of observation throughout the race day. There’s nothing wrong with calling an audible midday to pick a winner. Don’t take a pride loss when you can use simple observation to shape your bets.
Good luck everyone!
submitted by GuyOnTheGround to horseracing [link] [comments]

Preview of the Charlie Whittingham; Triple Bend and more

Saturday May 25, 2019
Monmouth Park
Race: 9 (4:31 PM EST Post)
Salvator Mile
Although Sunny Ridge is just 1 for 9 over the past two years, it must be noted he’s been running against much better (Page McKinney, Yoshida, Patternrecogintion, Vino Rosso etc) in most of those races and has hit the board in most of those spots. This gray, now eight year old by Holy Bull likes this track and his last race was “sneaky” good……………………..In taking Sunny Ridge, Diamond King scares the daylights out of me. This handsome son of Quality Road buried mid-level optionals in his 2019 debut. I loved the way he then dug in and fought valiantly in deep stretch of the three turn, Charles Town Classic in his last while just missing winning. Also, you get two of my more favorite angles with him including the third start off a layoff and he drops in class/cuts back in distance. Looms a major threat here……………………..There are several things to like about Bal Harbour in this race too. Gelding by First Samurai has the back class to win this, stretches out to his optimal distance (4-3-1-0 at one mile) and he ran very well (win) in his only try on this oval. Do not be so fast to throw him out………………………Honorable Mentions: California Night has won three of his last four and absolutely ran a hole in the wind in his last. I’m just not sure he can handle the step up in class here though…….....……..Jeezum Jim looks to be the controlling speed in this spot but he’ll have to break from the extreme outside and, although he is an 11 time winner, he has been beaten consistently by lesser foes. $5,000 sales purchase, who has banked over $300,000 (hell of a ROI), could still be “hanging and banging” down the lane if left alone on an uncontested lead.


Race: 11 (5:32 PM EST Post
Monmouth Stakes
Synchrony has hit the board in 12 of 14 career starts (14-6-2-4) and is 3-2-1-0 on the Monmouth Turf Course. Pay no attention to his last sub par effort as it was in a Grade:1 race, against pro-tem male grass division leader Bricks and Mortar and, most importantly, it was run over an off turf course. This six year old CLEARLY does his best running on firm turf courses and the weather on the Jersey shore is supposed to be nice this weekend……………….Monarchs Glen looks to be a serious contender in here as well. Good looking gelding by superstar Frankel missed the break in his U.S. debut but was quietly making up ground late while running a strong :23.2 final quarter mile. He also gets the services of arguably the best grass rider in the country. A “must use” for me in this spot…………………….Up the Ante possesses the oh-so-important versatility as he can beat you from on or off the pace. This $350,000 son of Smart Strike ran big in his first start in almost nine months as he was coming late, on the outside, to finish second in a race where the mile distance was run in a hot 1:33.2. Chestnut colt from the “CC” barn should be tighter for this and has either been first of second in six of seven tries on the turf………………………..Honorable Mentions: After a huge effort in none other than the Arlington Million last year, Almanaar has done very little since. Although his speed figures say otherwise, it appears to me he has cycled out of form. Bottom line here is I have no clue what to expect from him on Saturday afternoon but he’s one of those horses who is tough to bet but also tough to bet against…………………After three bad efforts to end 2018, Force the Pass did show some signs of life in his 2019 debut. Seven year old by wide spectrum sire Speightstown made a bold run leaving the three eighths pole but hung like a cheap suit in deep stretch. This millionaire has hit the board in 14 of 18 turf starts and mirrors Almanaar in the sense he is tough to play and tough to play against………………………Irish Strait’s last race was impressive (won a stretch duel, while getting a mile in 1:33.4). But he’ll be stepping up in class here and has had problems stringing wins together in the past………………Markitoff is just 2 for 24 in his career but can pop a big race now and again as witnessed by running Brick and Mortar to a nose (loss) at 63-1 two starts back.

Santa Anita Park
Race: 7 (7:03 PM EST Post)
Charlie Whittingham
United- quietly looks to be sitting on a big race. With just six career starts, he is by far the most inexperienced horse in this race but his last two races were excellent. Although he only beat $40,000 optionals two starts back, he rallied nicely, late to run a mile in 1:33.2 but it was his last race that caught my attention. This time, against optional $62,500s, he passed six horses in the last quarter mile of that race while running that distance in a very good :23.1. Toss in the third start off the layoff angle, and a rider switch to Prat, and it appears this $300,000 son of the late, great Giant’s Causeway is your winner………………Marckie’s Water ran an off the charts 110 Brisnet number two starts back and even though “bouncing” in his last (95 Brisnet), he was still able to handle $80,000 optionals. Bottom line here is this five year old is in good form right now and four of his five career wins came on this very turf course……………….. Prime Attraction has speed, the rail, can handle the turf and drops in class off three straight Grade: 1 races. He could make some noise in this well matched field……………….Honorable Mentions: Ashleyluvssugar owned the West Coast grass division a few years back but has clearly lost a step or two ..or possibly three…as he is 0 for his last nine and 0 for 2018 and 2019……………Tizzarunner was 5-0-0-0 and made a whopping $13,000 in 2018 but did finish right behind Marckie’s Water in his 2019 debut. Was that a sign of bigger things to come?

Race: 8 (7:33PM EST Post)
Triple Bend Stakes
American Anthem carved out fast early fractions but was run down in deep stretch at Churchill Downs on Derby Day in his 2019 debut. However, now this Bob Baffert trainee returns to his favorite surface, cuts back to what is clearly his best distance (4 for 5 at 7 furlongs), has a race under his belt and “Big Money Mike” gets the leg up. I want to say “should make every pole a winning one in this spot” but I’m not sure what the race strategy will look like with big speed right next to him………………….If you draw a line through Nero’s effort in the Malibu Stakes (overmatched), you’ll see he sports a record of 6-3-3-0. Now take note of the three straight monstebullet works in the month of May from this $950,000 son of Pioneerof The Nile and you should come up with a serious contender in this spot…………………… The Hardest Way ran a hole in the wind while winning by almost 7 lengths in his first start in 13 months last time out. The 49 days since that race and his subsequent works suggest there will be no bounce in this spot…figures bang up here ………………… Honorable Mentions: All Out Blitz has ability and likes this track (6-1-3-1 over it). …could be a menace………….If you are looking to play Cistron off his off the charts, 7-1 upset win in the Kona Gold Stakes last time out, proceed with caution. Yes, perhaps it was the surface change that helped him but a closer look shows he has been nothing special on the dirt in the past (7-2-0-1). This leads me to think that was a “freak” effort and is set up to bounce over the moon in this spot.

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team

[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

2019- Record: 26-84 = 31%
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Owner Gary West has confirmed that Maximum Security, who was disqualified from first in the Kentucky Derby, will not be headed to New York for the Belmont Stakes.
West said the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park remains the next start for handsome bay.
West added that the $150,000 Pegasus Stakes going 1 1/16 miles at Monmouth June 16 could be used as a prep for the July 20 Haskell.
"We are not looking at the Belmont because (trainer Jason Servis) says Maximum Security needs more time to fully recover," West said last Sunday. "We care a lot about our horses, and therefore we let them tell us when they are ready to run. Our ultimate goal is to give Maximum Security the opportunity to be 3-year-old champion, and everything we do will be to that end”.

**** Tacitus, the gorgeous gray colt who rallied from 16th to finish fourth in the Derby but was moved up to third via disqualification, breezed in company with Grade 3 winner Multiplier last Monday.
Tacitus settled a length back off his stable-mate through a quarter-mile in :24 3/5 but moved up to even terms down the lane, with both grays officially clocked in :48.3 for the half-mile drill and out five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
"It all went smoothly. It was his first breeze back and exactly what we wanted," said trainer Bill Mott. "It's what I expected. They look like a good team together."
"We were very happy with Tacitus' effort in the Derby. We always suspected he'd do well at a mile and a quarter," said Mott.
* While in the Mott’s barn, Country House was examined at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky., and returned to Churchill Downs last Wednesday. Mott said he will take his time with Country House before deciding on where the Derby winner will make his next start.
"He's just been walking under tack," Mott said. "I'll leave him there for a couple weeks. I want to make sure he's healthy before we move him and make sure everything is good as it should be."

**** Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress returned to the work tab last Friday recording a half-mile drill in :48 flat at Churchill Downs.
Trained by Tom Amoss, the daughter of Alternation clicked off splits of :12 2/5, :24 1/5, and :36 2/5 before galloping out to five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 and completing her work with six furlongs in 1:14.
"I thought she really looked super this morning," said Amoss, who reported Serengeti Empress could make her next start in the June 8
Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. "We're still on target and letting her tell us what to do next."
submitted by aspen222 to horseracing [link] [comments]

Guide to the 2017 Kentucky Derby

*Updated Posts,Odds, and Jockey
Wagering terms:
Win - Pick the horse to finish 1st in the race. Place - Pick the horse to finish 1st or 2nd in the race Show - Pick the horse to finish 1st 2nd or 3rd in the race Exacta - Pick the horses that finish 1st and 2nd. In the correct order. Trifecta - Pick the horses that finish 1st 2nd and 3rd. In the correct order Superfecta - Pick the horses that finish 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th in the correct order.
Where to bet :
www.xpressbet.com www.twinspires.com www.tvg.com www.betamerica.com
Where to watch NBC - Saturday May 6th, 6:35 P.M.
PP's
Brisnet - http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf Drf - ???
Useful links
A probably better version of this https://www.reddit.com/horseracing/comments/67ohhu/kentucky_derbyspreadsheet_of_derby_hopefuls_and/
Interesting articles https://www.usracing.com/news/kentucky-derby-road-to-the-roses/final-fractions-matter-kentucky-derby https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2017-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finished https://www.reddit.com/horseracing/comments/68w9w9/a_look_at_points_data_from_20132016/
Betting Strategies https://www.longshothorseracing.com/kentucky-derby-betting-options-use-your-strategy-and-bankroll-wisely/
The Horses
Post Position 1 - Looking At Lee 20/1
Rider : Corey Lanerie
Trainer : Steve Asmussen
Arkansas Derby : Finshed 3rd (#6) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire 1st (#2) Sonneteer 4th(#7) Untrapped Finshed 6th (#9)
Rebel : Finished 6th (#11) Other Derby entrants Untrapped 3rd (#5)
Southwest Stakes : Finshed 3rd (#4) Other Derby entrants Hence 7th (#10)
BC Juvi : Finshed: 4th (#11) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire 1st(#5) Gormly 7th(#7)
 
Post Position 2 - Thunder Snow - 20/1
Rider : Christophe Soumillon
Trainer : Suroor Saeed
UAE Darby : Finished: 1st (#13) Other Derby entrants None UAE prep : Finished: 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 3 - Fast and Accurate 50/1
Rider : Channing Hill
Trainer : Michael Maker
Spiral : Finshed 1st (#3) Other Derby entrants None
60K (turf) : Finished 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 4 - Untrapped 30/1
Rider : Ricardo Santana
Trainer : Steve Asmussen
Arkansas Derby : Finshed 6th (#9) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire 1st (#2) Looking At Lee 3rd(#6) Sonneteer 4th(#7)
Rebel : Finished 3rd (#5) Other Derby entrants Looking At Lee 6th (#11)
Risen Star : Finished 2nd (#2) Other Derby entrants Girvin 1st (#1)
Lecomte : Finshed 2nd (#5) Other Derby Entrants
 
Post Position 5 - Always Dreaming - 5/1
Rider : John Velazquez
Trainer : Todd Pletcher
Florida Derby : Finished: 1st (#4) Other Derby entrants State of Honor 2nd (#1) Gunnevera 3rd (#11) OC 75k : Finished: 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants None MDN 23k : Finished: 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 6 - State of Honor 30/1
Rider : Jose Lescano
Trainer : Mark Casse
Florida Derby : Finished : 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants Always Dreaming 1st (#4) Gunnevera 3rd (#11) Tampba Bay Derby : Finished : 2nd (#8) Other Derby entrants Tapwrit 1st (#5) Sam F Davis : Finished : 3rd (#1) Other Derby entrants McCraken 1st (#8) Tapwrit 2nd (#7) Mucho Macho Man : Finished : 2nd (#10) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 7 - Girvin - 15/1
Rider : Mike Smith
Trainer : Joe Sharp
Louisiana Derby!: Finshed: 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Patch(#1) finished 2nd Local Hero(#3) finished 3rd Risen Star! : Finshed: 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants Untrapped(#2) finshed 2nd Local Hero(#3) finshed 3rd Keith G Memorial! : Finshed: 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants None
MSW : Finshed: 1st (#2) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 8 - Hence 15/1
Rider : Florent Geroux
Trainer : Steve Asmussen
Sunland Derby : Finshed 1st (#9) Other Derby entrants Irap Finished 4th(#5)
Southwest Stakes : Finshed 7th (#10) Other Derby entrants Looking At Lee Finished 3rd (#4)
MDN 72k : Finished 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 9 - Irap - 20/1
Rider : Mario Gutierrez
Trainer : Doug O'neil
Blue Grass Stakes : Finished: 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants Practical Joke** 2nd (#7) McCracken 3rd (#2) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) Tapwrit 5th (#4)
Sunland Derby : Finished: 4th (#5) Other Derby entrants Hence 1st (#9)
Mine That Bird : Finished: 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants None
Robert B Lewis : Finished: 2nd (#2) Other Derby entrants None
MDN : Finished: 4th (#7) Other Derby entrants
 
Post Position 10 - Gunnevera - 15/1
Rider : Javier Castellano
Trainer : Antonio Sano
Florida Derby : Finished: 3rd (#10) Other Derby entrants Always Dreaming 1st (#4) State of Honor 2nd (#1)
Fountain of Youth : Finshed: 1st (#2) Other Derby entrants Irish War Cry 7th(#8) Practical Joke 2nd (#6)
Holy Bull : Finshed: 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants Irish War Cry 5th(#5) Classic Empire 3rd (#3)
Delta Down Jackpot : Finshed: 1st (#6) Other Derby entrants J Boys Echo 4th(#9)
 
Post Position 11 - Battle of Midway 30/1
Rider : Flavien Prat
Trainer : Jerry Hollendorder
Santa Anita Derby : Finished 2nd (#3) Other Derby entrants Gormley Finished 1st(#8)
75K OC : Finished 1st (#7) Other Derby entrants None
San Vicente : Finished 3rd (#4) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 12 - Sonneteer 50/1
Rider : Kent J. Desormeaux
Trainer : Keith Desormeaux
Arkansas : Finshed: 4th (#7) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire1st (#2) Looking At Lee 3rd(#6) Untrapped 6th(#9)
Rebel : Finished 2ND (#3) Other Derby entrants Untrapped 3rd (#5) Looking At Lee 6th (#11)
54k MDN 2nd (#8) Other Derby entrants None
54k MDN 3rd (#1) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 13 - J Boys Echo - 20/1
Rider : Luis Saez
Trainer : Dale Romans
Blue Grass Stakes : Finished: 4th (#7) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) Pratical Joke 2nd (#7) McCracken 3rd (#2) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) ** **Tapwrit 5th
Gotham : Finished: 1st (#1) Other Derby entrants None
Withers : Finished: 3rd (#10) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 14 - Classic Empire - 4-1
Rider : LEPAROUX JULIEN
Trainer : Mark Casse
Arkansas Derby : Finshed: 1st (#2) Other Derby entrants Looking At Lee 3rd(#6) Sonneteer 4th(#7) Untrapped 6th(#9) Holy Bull :Finshed: 3rd (#3) Other Derby entrants Irish War Cry 1st(#5) Gunnevera 2nd (#1) BC Juvi : Finshed: 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants Looking at Lee 4th(#11) Gormly 7th(#7) BC Futurity : Finished 1st (#11) Other Derby entrants Looking at Lee (#12) Gunnevera (#2)
 
Post Position 15 - McCraken 5/1 Rider : Brian Hernandez Trainer : Ian Wilkes
Blue Grass Stakes : Finshed 6th (#4) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) Pratical Joke 2nd (#7) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) Tapwrit 5th(#4)
Sam F Davis : Finished 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Tapwrit 2nd (#7) State of Honor 3rd (#1)
KY Jockey Club : Finshed 1st (#11) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 16 - Tapwrit 20/1
Rider : Jose Ortiz
Trainer : Todd Pletcher
Blue Grass Stakes : Finshed 5th (#4) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) **Pratical Joke 2nd (#7) McCracken 3rd (#2)J Boys Echo 4th (#3)** Tampba Derby : Finished 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants State of Honor 2nd (#8) Sam F Davis : Finished 2nd (#7) Other Derby entrants McCraken 1st (#8) State of Honor 3rd (#1)
 
Post Position 17 - Irish War Cry - 6/1
Rider : Rajiv Maragh
Trainer : Graham Motion
Wood : Finished: 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Batalion Runner 2nd (#3)
Fountain of Youth : Finished: 7th (#8) Other Derby entrants Gunnevera 1st (#2) Practical Joke 2nd (#6)
Holy Bull : Finished: 1st (#5) Other Derby entrants Gunnevera 2nd (#1) Classic Empire 3rd (#3)
Marylander : Finished: 1st (#3) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 18 - Gormly - 15/1
Rider : Victor Espinoza
Trainer : John Sheriffs
Santa Anita Derby : Finished: 1st (#8) Other Derby entrants Battle of Midway 2nd (#3) San Felipe : Finished: 4th(#5) Other Derby entrants None Sham : Finished: 1st(#5) Other Derby entrants None
 
Post Position 19 - Practical Joke - 20/1
Rider : Joel Rosario
Trainer : Chad Brown
Blue Grass Stakes : Finished: 2nd (#7) Other Derby entrants Irap 1st (#6) McCracken 3rd (#2) J Boys Echo 4th (#3) Tapwrit 5th (#4)
Fountain of Youth : Finished: 2nd (#5) Other Derby entrants Gunnevera 1st (#2) Irish War Cry 7th (#8)
BC Juvi : Finished: 3rd (#9) Other Derby entrants Classic Empire 1st (#5) Gormley (#7)** Lookin At Lee (#11)
 
Post Position 20 - Patch 30/1
Rider : Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer : Todd Pletcher
Louisiana Derby : Finshed 2nd (#1) Other Derby entrants Girvin Finshed: 1st (#8) Local Hero(#3) finished 3rd
MDN 46k : Finshed 1st (#3) Other Derby entrants None MDN 46K : Finished 2nd (#2) Other Derby entrants None
submitted by evilbobdole to horseracing [link] [comments]

2016 Kentucky Derby Analysis

Well, if this year’s Florida Derby, featuring two unbeaten colts, the likely favorites for the 2016 Kentucky Derby, is any indication of how the real Derby will be run, Nyquist is the colt to beat. He handily defeated the undefeated Mohaymen in the Florida race when many fans all but conceded the race to Mohaymen. After all, Nyquist had to: 1) fly in from CA, 2) race over a new surface, 3) have only his 2nd start since October, and 4) face the mighty, $2.2M, Shadwell colt on his home turf. These obstacles looked formidable on paper, but the race is not run on paper and neither is the Derby.
The colts will be listed in order of the points they have earned while racing on the Derby trail, not according to how I think they will finish. I apologize in advance if some of the terminology used herein is “Greek” to some of the readers but I think you will get the point(s). So here we go.
Gun Runner: This colt was the impressive winner of the Louisiana Derby over fellow Derby aspirants Tom’s Ready and the LA Derby favorite Mo Tom, who was given a horrible ride by Corie Lanerie when he tried to come up along the rail and lost all chance. Gun Runner has won 4 out of 5 career starts, losing his only race over a sloppy track @ CD (rain on Derby day would not help his cause). He likes to lay close to the pace (mid pack) so that would be advantageous in a 20 horse field. Even though he has only 2 starts in 2016, he will have to be considered a contender and should go off at single digit odds. His pedigree suggests that the 1-1/4 mile distance will not be an issue.
Nyquist: This undefeated colt, and last year’s two-year old champion, will probably be the favorite in this year’s race and will try to emulate American Pharoah’s 2015 accomplishment of winning the Derby after being the 2-yo champ. Nyquist is out of this year’s hot young sire Uncle Mo, as is Outwork and the jury is still out on whether or not Uncle Mo’s offspring can get the classic distance of 1-1/4 miles. Therein lies the biggest knock to Nyquist winning the Derby on May 7 th . Also, like several others in here, he is entering the Derby off only 2 starts in 2016 (Note: several recent winners of the Derby only had 2 starts in the year they ran in the race), but he has 4 Grade 1 wins in his 7 lifetime starts and earnings of more than $3M (enhanced by a $1M bonus for winning the FLA Derby). Nyquist should be forwardly placed in the early stages of the race but we will have to wait and see what happens that last ¼ mile.
Exaggerator: Winner of the SA Derby over a sloppy track in his last start, you never know which Exaggerator will show up on any given race day. This colt looked super in his Santa Anita win, coming from way out of it and pulling away to win by 6 lengths. He is a “dual qualifier” * and has a pedigree that says the distance should not be an issue. He has earned $1.3M in three wins on “off” tracks so perhaps the sloppy conditions at SA last out moved him way up. If he catches an “off” track Derby day, you better pay attention, on the other hand if the track is fast he may not even be in the money. Oh, one last point, if he wins it will be a first in that his Trainer Keith Desormeaux and his jockey Kent Desormeaux are brothers.
Outwork: Another Uncle Mo colt who was the winner of the Wood Memorial over a muddy track in his last start. This lightly raced colt, 4 career starts with only one start as a 2-yo, will draw some wagering support on Derby day based on: 1) his Wood win, 2) his trainer, Todd Pletcher, 3) his jockey, John Velazquez and 4) his flamboyant owner Mike Repole. He likes to go to the front if he can, but that strategy may not work to his advantage in the Derby. I don’t think he has the seasoning or the pedigree to get the distance (see Nyquist). I think there are other, more likely winners than him.
Brody’s Cause: Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes in his last start at Keeneland, this Dale Roman’s trained runner has two Grade 1 wins in 6 lifetime starts. He broke his maiden at CD so he is right at home on that oval. This colt’s running style as a come-from- behind type might compromise his chances in a 20 horse field on May 7th . Like a few others in here, he is a “dual qualifier” * and being out of Giant’s Causeway he should not have any trouble getting the distance. The pace for this year's Derby may not be that fast given the lack of colts that need the lead so I suspect his chances will be compromised somewhat by a reasonable (i.e. not fast) pace. I have always been high on this colt and IF he gets a good pace to run at and IF he can stay out of trouble, I expect him to hit the board. Two big IF’s however.
Creator: This guy really jumped into the Derby picture with his good win in the Arkansas Derby. However, there are a few issues with him. One, it took him 6 tries to break his maiden – not what you’d expect from a classy colt and, two, he was carrying 118 pounds in his Arkansas win ( the lightest weight carried by a Derby prep winner in the field) and will have to pick up 8 pounds going into the Derby. He has a come-from- behind running style so like Brody he’s going to need some help with the pace and luck to stay out of trouble if he is to have a chance. He is Asmussen’s 2nd entry (see Gun Runner). Of the two, Gun Runner probably has the better chance to win. The Derby will be his 5th start since mid-February and he has been racing regularly, without much of a break, since September 2015 – this is a little more racing than you would expect before the big day.
Lani: Well I can’t really say much about this Japanese colt except that he raced in Dubai in March and won the UAE Derby, run at 1-3/16 miles. He has probably the best dosage profile of the colts entered in the Derby with representation in all 5 categories of the profile. Horses that race in Dubai generally need several months between races to recuperate from the travel there and back and this colt went from Japan to Dubai to Kentucky. I will pass on this one.
Mor Spirit: This colt has been favored in all 7 of his career starts for trainer Bob Baffert and has run 1st or 2nd in each race. He won’t be favored in his 8th start and I don’t think he will be 1 st or 2nd either. Like several others in here he is a “dual qualifier” * who has raced almost exclusively in Southern California (he had one race @ CD). He likes to race mid-pack and make a run at the 1/8 pole. Gary Stevens is his regular jockey and Gary certainly knows the ropes in the Derby having won three, but none since 1997. He is a PA bred and only two other PA breds have won the Derby – remember Smarty Jones? He is out of Eskendereya and a Dixie Union mare so the 1-1/4 mile shouldn’t be an issue, but the competition will be. He is o’fer in two races over sloppy tracks, including CD, so if it rains on Derby day bet at your own risk. I would like to be more positive about this colt but he really doesn’t do much for me. However, I wouldn’t fault anyone betting on him at a double digit price.
Mohaymen: Was undefeated until he met up with Nyquist in the Florida Derby (see my opening preamble). This $2.2M son of Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare should have no problem getting the distance and like three others in here he is a “dual qualifier”*. His trainer is Kiaran McLaughlin and many bettors will be pulling for Kiaran to get his first Derby win – including yours truly. He has a good running style for this race, laying mid-pack, and likes to grab the lead about the 3/16 pole (remember, the winner of the Derby usually has the lead at the 1/8 pole). He is working great at CD and I can forgive him for that subpar effort in FLA. I look for big things from him come May 7th.
Danzing Candy: California speed can either kill a colt’s chances in the Derby or be an asset. I’m not sure that this colt’s speed will benefit him much with the likes of Outwork and Nyquist keeping him company up front. He apparently didn’t like the slop at SA in his last start so if it rains Derby day… He only has a Grade 2 win to his credit, but he does have the services of Mike Smith, who knows a thing or two about riding in the Derby even though he has only won it once and that was on a 50-1 shot. His pedigree is borderline as far as having the breeding to get the distance. I think he guns to the front, is hounded after a ¼ mile by the aforementioned colts and fades badly after a mile.
Destin: Pletcher’s 2 nd entry (see Outwork) and the less talented of the two, this colt will have the longest layoff before the Derby (56 days) of any colt in the race. He hasn’t run, or won, further than 1-1/16 miles and he owns no Grade 1 wins. While his sire, Giant’s Causeway , brings a dose of stamina into this pedigree, his dam’s sire was a sprinter. I don’t like the layoff, the lack of a race further than 1-1/16 miles and the fact that he is picking up 6 pounds from his last start. I guess I don’t think he has much of a chance even with Javier Castellano riding.
Suddenbreakingnews: In my estimation, this colt flew under the radar all year running at Remington and Oaklawn; I didn’t even know about him until the Arkansas Derby. He did launch a nice rally in the AR Derby but it looks like all he did was pass tiring colts in the stretch. He tends to come from far out of it and as previously stated that style of running may not bode well in a 20 horse field. He is a gelding and only 9 geldings have won the Derby, Funny Cide and Mine That Bird being recent gelded winners. His dosage index is above the historical threshold of 4.00, which really might not mean much these days but I still look at it as an indicator of a colt’s ability to get 1-1/4 miles. He will be a long shot, for the reasons stated above, and I don’t see him finishing in the money.
Oscar Nominated: He may be “Oscar” nominated but I don’t see him winning an award on the First Saturday in May! What you have here is a colt that has never raced on good old dirt! Of his 7 lifetime starts, 6 have been on the lawn and the other one on a synthetic surface at Turfway. Why do Mike Maker and the Ramseys think he can win the Derby? I am miffed as to why he is entered. This colt was claimed by the Ramseys off his maiden win at Belmont Park (I guess they wanted to own a Kitten’s Joy colt, after all they own Kitten’s Joy). How many Derby winners were once claimers –Charismatic comes to mind, but it is a rarity. This colt was a supplemental nominee (for $200K) to get into the Derby, which is really an afterthought on the Ramsey’s part, but they are dying to win this race and maybe this was their only chance. I can’t get behind this guy – he likely is no Charismatic and I think the Ramsey’s will have to wait until next year to try and win their first Derby!
Shagaf: The first of Chad Brown’s two potential Derby starters, this is a very lightly raced colt with only 4 lifetime starts, like Outwork who beat him in the Wood. Shagaf has been the favorite in each of his starts, but maybe he didn’t like the muddy conditions at Aqueduct. He wants to run close to the pace but did not get a clean trip in the Wood. It should be noted that Irad Ortiz Jr. chose to ride Brown’s other entry, My Man Sam, over this colt and this guy gets the services of Hector Rosario who has only ridden 34 horses this year- not an encouraging sign. He is owned by Shadwell Stable who also owns Mohaymen but I’m thinking Shadwell’s hopes lie with Mohaymen. I would be totally shocked if he ran in the money, but at a big price it would be a juicy exacta if both Shadwell entries were to finish 1-2.
Whitmore: This gelding has not won a graded stakes race although he has run competitively when in stakes company. As with Suddenbreakingnews, being a gelding does not bode well for winning the Derby. I bet him in the AR Derby but I doubt I will bet him in the KY Derby. He is trained by Ron Moquett who has only a 2% win record in graded stakes races( 1 win in 44 tries) and the Derby is the biggest graded stakes race in America. It should be noted that Victor Espinoza will ride Whitmore in the Derby replacing Irad Ortiz. Can Victor win his 3rd Derby in a row; no one ever has accomplished this feat so the odds are he won’t either. I will pass on this colt.
Tom’s Ready: This colt has only a maiden win in 9 career starts but he has run 2nd in two graded stakes and that gives him enough points to get into the starting gate on May 7th. Just because he has the points doesn’t mean he should go in the race! Colts like him just clutter up the field. His stablemate Mo Tom seems to be the better of the two, although he out finished that one in the LA Derby. He has been beaten by no less than four of the other Derby entrants, he has issues leaving the starting gate and has raced without a break since August 2015 – I will pass.
My Man Sam: Like Outwork and Shagaf this guy has only 4 lifetime starts. This colt is Chad Brown’s 2nd entry and Irad Ortiz chose to ride him over Shagaf . Given the two colts that Chad has entered in the Derby, I think Shagaf is the better of the two and I don’t like his chances either. I will look elsewhere for the winner.
Majesto: Really! A colt with only a maiden win running in the Derby! Well it took him 5 starts to break his maiden and then he runs 2nd in the FLA Derby to get the points to get into the Big race. He did finish ahead of Mohaymen that day but do you really believe he is a better colt than Mohaymen? He has run in 3 - 1-1/8 mile races so he is tested at a distance of ground. That being said, I am still not convinced he can run with this group but can he get 2nd or 3rd ? He would be a price in a tri or an exacta. You decide.
Trojan Nation: This colt has not even broken his maiden. Three maidens have won the Derby, the last being Brokers Tip in 1933 (the Fighting Derby). I’m sorry, I can’t back a maiden in America’s greatest horse race - no more to say. His connections are looking to get seats on Derby Day and that is that.
Mo Tom: Another Uncle Mo offspring, the 3 rd one to be in the starting gate at this writing – maybe this should be the Uncle Mo Derby! He has a win over the CD surface as a 2-YO and was competitive at the Fair Grounds as a 3-YO. He has improved in every start and Amoss decided to stay with Corey Lanerie in spite of the awful rides he gave this colt in his last two races. I assume Corey will not go inside in the Derby which means he will be wide and lose a lot of ground! If not for the bad rides this colt was given in his last few races, he would probably be single digit odds come Saturday, maybe he can redeem himself at a decent price. I might have to put him in my exotic bets.
Well the above colts are the current top 20 point getters but maybe one or two of them will not make it into the starting gate - sooo here a few couple more who might get in.
Fellowship: With 11 lifetime starts, this colt has by far the most races under his saddle (belt) than anybody. He has only two wins and one of them was against FLA state breds. He always puts in a good effort and was 3 rd in the FLA Derby to Nyquist but finished ahead of Mohaymen! He is a late running colt and that might work against him. Mark Casse just took over training this colt from Stanley Gold; that’s not something you want to see before running in the biggest race in America.
Adventist: A lightly raced colt who only has 4 career starts- all since December. I won’t waste much time on this colt as it seems he will likely run next in the Peter Pan Stakes – and not be a 7th of May Adventist. He only has a maiden win, and that was over Aqueduct’s inner dirt track, but he has run 3rd in 3 graded stakes since. If he goes in the Derby he will be a very long price.
Laoban: Since Adventist will probably pass the Derby I added this guy to the analysis. Another Uncle Mo colt – seems like we need mo Mo’s in the Derby. He is still a maiden so I refer the reader to Trojan Nation for the rest of the story.
Well that concludes my analysis of the top 23 colts that will likely make up the field. Now the hard part – how will the race unfold? Note that the following scenario assumes a fast track.
I think this year’s race will set up a lot like last year’s (remember American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund ran 1,2,3 the entire race?). A few speed types go to the front; Outwork, Nyquist, Shagaf and Danzing Candy but not at a suicidal pace (:47-:48 for the half), they cruise along on the lead for the first ¾ mile (1:11- 1:12), followed closely by the off the pace types Mohaymen, Gun Runner, and Destin, the rest bide their time behind these 6. The mid pack runners Lani, Mor Spirit and Oscar Nominated launch their moves around the far turn as the field approaches the ¼ pole while the closers Mo Tom, Creator and Brody’s Cause need to go wide to find running room. The rest of the closers are stuck behind the wall of horses in front of them with nowhere to go. The race is on! As the leaders hit the top of the stretch, Nyquist has the lead but Mohaymen runs right up to his flank, Danzing Candy drops out of it while Gun Runner, Mor Spirit and Mo Tom chase the top two.
Brody’s Cause, Creator, Exaggerator and Whitmore launch their bids with a 1/8 mile to go. The race
that should have been in the FLA Derby is now on as Nyquist and Mohaymen are stride for stride. All eyes are on the two combatants at the 1/16 pole as Mohaymen gains a slight lead and then prevails over Brody’s Cause by 1-1/2 lengths at the wire. Nyquist drops back to 3rd , 50 yards from the finish; Gun Runner runs 4th.
Anyway I think it will go something like that! But we still have to make some money. So if the race were to run like I described, we would all be rich, but we know that the chances of it playing out like this are remote. However, here is how I will probably bet the race. Mohaymen to win as I do believe he will win and will offer a better price than Nyquist. A four horse exacta box with Mohaymen, Nyquist, Brody’s Cause and Mo Tom. A five horse trifecta box with these four plus Mor Spirit.
If the track is “off” I would put Exaggerator in the exacta box and take out Mo Tom and add Suddenbreakingnews in the trifecta and take out Mor Spirit.
We all know that it’s a horse race and anything can happen. This is my look into the Derby crystal ball 9 days before the race. I hope everyone enjoys the race win or lose!
submitted by yanquisphan to horseracing [link] [comments]

Does anyone know of a good source for historical statistics on the Kentucky Derby?

I am going to the Kentucky Derby, my first horse race. I want to engage in some betting and I am a numbers kind of guy, so I want to see some statistics. Does anyone know of a website that has some cool analysis or betting strategies?
submitted by JustinWuhan to horseracing [link] [comments]

[Table] IamA Assistant Racehorse Trainer in the UK. If you want to anything about the industry or horse racing in general let me help. AMA!

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Date: 2014-03-22
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Questions Answers
I'm involved in horse welfare and rescue in the USA. Here, owners and trainers rarely make provisions for horses that fail to race well or horses that can no longer race. They are commonly shipped to slaughter in Canada. Is it any different in the UK? Here in the USA, horses are raced as 2 and 3 year olds, despite the fact that no horse is skeletally mature before age 5 or 6. (For perspective for non horse people, a 2 year old horse would be about 13 human years old.) Is it the same in the UK? In the last ten to twenty years there has been an increased push to rehome and retrain as many horses as we as a sport can. I personally try to rehome every horse that leaves the yard to a good home, provided the owner is willing and doesn't want to keep it themselves. I wouldn't say that selling horses, particularly race horses, for slaughter is common practise here. I haven't encountered any instances personally. Horses are frequently run aged two or three in this country as well however I think it's wise to mention that while they do work hard it is not in our or the horses interest to overwork or break them down. In our yard if a young horse is showing signs of struggling we will ease off and give them time.
But, don't a majority of your horses run on turf (compared to US dirt tracks). We don't use dirt at all here. There are a few all weather tracks for flat meetings but most racing is done on turf.
, aren't pain medications more restricted in the UK circuits, so you really can't run a horse into the ground in the same way as US trainers can. Drugs are extremely restricted here, even a whiff of it and they will come down hard. Especially after the last couple of years.
Does the horse have any idea that he is going round and round? Oh yeah. They are clever bastards. You can often tell when it's time to retire a horse from racing because instead of carrying on the race when they get round the course and near to the stables they will try and pull up.
Where do they get jockeys from? Is it genetic? Do they have funny voices from getting their nads squished on the saddle every race? From Ireland generally! A lot do come from a long line of jockeys or racing families in general.
Well other than being Irish I guess the funny voice could come from the pounding their bollocks take...
What is a good resource to learn about racing in the UK if I wanted to attend as a tourist? This website is run by the governing body of racing and has lots of good information on racecourse and fixtures.
Once you have decided on where you want to go I suggest visiting some of the individual racecourses website as they are much more detailed. If you are visiting London during summer I do suggest going to Windsor they do fantastic evening racing, generally on a Monday night where you can get to the racecourse on a boat that comes up the River Thames. Cool huh?
Is racing there seasonal or year-round? Horse racing as a sport happens all year round however some elements of it are indeed seasonal.
For example Flat racing is predominately held over Summer, this is because these horses are generally smaller and appreciate 'faster' (read harder) ground.
During Winter we get most of the National Hunt meetings. National Hunt is the full name for jumps racing. Generally speaking horses are larger and as such need softer ground to prevent injuries and slow them down.
I've never been to a horse racing track and what are some of the reasons for me to want to go? Have you ever felt like the horses weren't being treated fairly on or off the track? Final question is have you ever witnessed anybody on the track gamble to much that you started to feel it was running their life? Sorry about all the questions! Horse racing is a fun and enjoyable pastime. It's great to get a lot of people together and go and have a few drinks and a couple of bets on horses, it really is exciting when there is money on it. It's a good fun day out and provided you budget like any other day out, it doesn't have to be really expensive either.
Welfare is a tough question to answer briefly but I will give it a shot and if their is more interest I can write up a larger response. I personally feel that the majority of trainers provide a very high level of welfare for their horses. We really do love the animals regardless of what people may say. Racehorses get treated especially well, better than most horses kept just for riding I would argue. We are incredibly strictly regulated on animal welfare issues and the punishments are severe for the very few people who do break the rules.
I personally am not a huge gambler, I have a little flutter every now and then but for the most part It don't gamble. I have not ever seen someone ruin their lives through betting but that's not to say it doesn't happen I'm sure.
If the horses are treated well, why are they whipped to make them run faster at the end of the race? It's to make them go faster, it causes the horse no damage and Jockeys are carefully regulated. Limits are set in place for how much a whip can be used and bans and fines for excessive use are common.
Horses are big animals and the whip is primarily a correctional tool, they are trained to respond to it and it's used to keep them under control. Most schools of equestrianism use the whip in some form.
Last year, there were some interesting articles in the press about how horse racing was a dying sport (for example, here and here). How does it look from your perspective? Horse racing is the second most attended sport in the UK, we also hold something like 6 of the highest 10 sporting fixtures in the UK each year. However the average age of the racegoer is getting higher and higher, at a higher level than I there must be a push to encourage a younger audience to attend racing. Racing in this country is coming under attack from decreasing in funding by the betting industry. Every year we receive less money to go towards prize money and such due to an archiac system called the Levy which is supposed to provided the sport with a proportion of bookmakers profits. Improvements look to be being made in this are as the Government, I believe, is pushing to regulate the betting industry differently allowing online betting in particular to be properly taxed and the money collected. It's tough for trainers right now. There aren't as many trainers around than there were in 2007. The recession hit us hard as unsurprisingly the first cost most people shed was a racehorse in training. Ultimately though the situation does start to look like its improving, people are buying horses again and yards are starting to be a bit larger each year. The next one to look out for is China. Racing is becoming very popular there and gambling isn't even legal on mainland china. If China liberalises at the rate it has been it may only be a few years before they regulate the betting industry and everything really kicks off.
Thank you so much for the reply! If you have a minute, I have another question or two... How often do horses race internationally, such as coming from the UK to race in the US or vice-versa? What about going to the Middle East? Also, are there many horses from South America in the UK racing circuit? Our top flight horses travel all over the world to contest titles. This is called "raiding" and foreigners come to England to do it too! The Breeders Cup is something every trainer wants to win. As for the Middle East the main draw is the money. It is insane. Next Saturday is the Dubai World Cup held at Meydan. They built this huge racing complex way out in the desert and hold loads of expensive racing at night to avoid the heat. Pretty surreal compared to here. I don't know of any South American horses running under rules and I'm not certain why they wouldn't. I suppose they don't have any good enough to warrant the expense of travelling over.
I was curious about the South American horses because a few years back there seemed to be a bunch of them on the American circuit from Argentina (that American owners had purchased). I think it had to do with the dollar being so strong and the economy in Argentina being so bad. Ahh. I think they race on dirt over in Argentina so they would be better suited for American racing.
Where are the races held? What are the most popular meets? Is "meets" the right word? Racing is held all over the UK Some of the most popular meetings are Royal Ascot, the Derby Meeting at Epsom and Glorious Goodwood on the Flat. Thousands of people attend these three or four day long meetings every year and it's really quite a sight!
Over the Jumps the most popular are the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National meeting at Aintree in Liverpool. The Cheltenham Festival is a personal favourite of mine as the atmosphere is truly electric, around 60,000 people attend each day.
Edit: Whoops! Yes meets is a fine phrase. More commonly people will say meetings, fixtures or races.
Thanks so much for your time, and I wish you the best of luck in the future! Your father sounds like a proper horseman. Id like to think I can spot a good one but not nearly as well as my father or my grandfather. It's a skill we all pick up the more we watch.
What's your favorite track? Have you had a few of your horses run in the US? I know whenever I see a steeplechase race in the program, the overwhelming majority of horses in the race are from Great Britain. My favourite to go to as a racegoer would have to be Newbury. The facilities are amazing and the racing is generally of a really high quality both on the flat and over the jumps. Professionally in recent years we have had some success at Plumpton down on the South Coast near Brighton, it's a nice little country course.
Not for my yard no sadly but I would love to come over for some of your racing. Some of my extended family take a few horses out there every now and then. It's every trainers dream to raid a Breeders Cup!
When it's clear your horse stands no chance, how much do you lay the horse on betfair? Call me a man of integrity but I don't at all. Maybe that's because it's been so long since I had a favourite...
Who makes the best sausages in Newmarket? Dunno mate. I'm all about the lasagne.
Roughly what percentage of races are still fixed? I have no idea to be honest. It's probably very very low, it's a hard thing to pull off and the punishments are very strict. Life long bans and potential criminal prosecution.
A few do attempt it of course, a big ring got taken down a few years ago. It's a shame that this is an issue that press fixate upon really as on a day to day basis you don't even think about it within the Industry.
Would it be advantageous for a midget to be a jockey? Not at all! Jockey's are professional sportsmen in a job where if you can't make the weight you can't ride. Some jockey's have to be very light while others can afford to be heavier, it depends on their role as every horse generally requires a different weight based on their handicap rating (A whole other kettle of fish).
Jockeys not only have to be light but have to be incredibly fit and strong. It's really hard work to ride a horse in that style for possibly four miles. Most jockey's I know aren't just good jockeys they are athletes who are proficient at most sports. They really seem to love golf.
If I could go back in time I would love to have gone the career path of a jockey... their commitment to the sport is fantastic and they really put their bodies on the line. Complete Commitment
I just hope some people understand the distances these jockeys travel just to do the job, they will do 2 meetings a day where possible, day in - day out. The physical exertion must be intense only to wake up and do it all over again. It's important to note that during the day most of them work for a trainer as well. They will ride out maybe three or four lots in the morning before going racing sometimes.
Do you gamble? Do you often get tips and are they reliable? Not often, I do for fun every now and then and always over the Cheltenham Festival.
Sadly not often but sometimes a good tip comes along. Often I'm too sceptical to believe it.
Thanks for doing this! I'm a big fan of horse racing and was wondering, what should I be looking at when placing my bet on a certain horse?. Days off? Avg class ? High speed? Etc. in other words , what is the most important stat? Form is the big one. Form over a comparable distance with comparable ground conditions. You can start to make educated guesses each way after that if you start to take in other variables like equipment etc.
The going has a massive impact from my experience, if the horse doesn't run well on a certain ground its a no-no. I couldn't agree more, going is vitally important however generally speaking when we run a horse on different ground than normal we are hoping it will overcome it.
When they state in the paper that they are wearing headgear or blinkers etc. do you think this can make a significant difference? Headgear is a really useful tool, sometimes they go really well. Other times it has no effect. Sometimes the effects deteriorate over time. Generally if one of mine is wearing head gear for the first time it means we have worked it at home and it's worked really well.
What was the most expensive batch of horse seed you know of being sold? By horse seed do you mean semen? If so in the Thoroughbred Bloodstock Industry Artificial Insemination is banned. Only natural coverings are permitted. Race horses are still crazy expensive though. People can spend millions of pounds on one horse.
What's your most gruesome story? i've heard some pretty horrific stuff from botched castrations/surgeries on horses. As for most gruesome I don't have any really awful ones about horses. We have had some nasty falls and one went through a barbed wire fence once but nothing truly disgusting. Likewise never seen any botched geldings or surgeries. But they do happen, I like to think the vet we use is pretty good so I hope it won't happen anytime soon!
Only live coverage is allowed? Fascinating. Why is that the case? So I take it that there is a limited amount of bloodlines unless you actually ship the horse out of country/continent? A few reasons.
One, limits the number of stock from a single stallion. AI decreases the cost of covering so semen would be more readily available. You would end up with thousands of foal in the same year by the same sire. Thats a quick way to fuck up your bloodlines.
Two, why would they change to it? Now all the selling power is held by those who it would affect most. The studs which own the stallions make millions of pounds a year in coverings, if they saturate (literally in this case) the market they will make loses.
Three, racing is an international sport, if one country did it and no one followed suit very quickly they would find themselves isolated with a horse population that couldn't compete abroad.
What is your favorite color? Blue. I like Blue...
That is the correct answer, OP. Now you must answer one more question to cross the bridge. What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow? African or European?
European. Ffffuuu...
Ohh boy. I've been wanting to ask so many questions about your industry but wasnt quite sure what sub to go to. Thanks for doing this ama.A bunch of questions here. Hope you can clear things up for me. How do trainers even make money. Sometimes the odds of a horse winning are upwards of 20/1 when the prize money is usually around 10k-20k(?). factor in the logistical, training and acquiring costs and seems like a losers game to train a horse (?) Hey man! Hope I can help. Trainers charge the owners of horses a training fee. This is generally a daily charge plus extras . Sometimes it's very hard to make money as a trainer, a lot of people don't turn a profit training racehorses many just do it for the fun and the lifestyle.
How do you even judge how fast a horse will be when you go to three auction? Generally breeding, if the mare and stallion are good the horse has a better chance of being good. Ideally you compare the horse to a full sibling however this is rare and you generally end up comparing them to half brothesister on the maternal side.
The Grand National seems like an absolutely absurd event to me. Would you say it enjoys broad support among the racing community? I think it's a truly impressive spectacle that is the hardest test we throw at our toughest horse and jockey teams. I don't feel it's representative of the day to day life in the racing world however.
I worked at the grand national once. a G4S man tried to crush me in a bin. Consequentially I don't trust anyone associated with your profession. Sorry about that. Aww come on. G4S as in the men being done for manslaughter? Trust me when I say we hate those hired security at the big meetings more than you do. We normally know the guy on the gate because it's been the same one for maybe twenty years. However at the big meetings they roll out extra staff and they get lost in the crowd somewhere...
How much pressure is there for the horses to get results? If you had a severe patch of not winning many races does this affect the finances of the yard? Everyone wants their horse to perform at the height of it's ability so it's tough. Hopefully you have owners who understand it's just a patch and that fortune will turn round in the long run.
Yards as a general rule of thumb don't really on prize money to fund themselves, it does however draw in new owners!
So whats the bread and butter of a decent yard then? The brad and butter is training fees through a daily cost per horse plus extras.
One or two wealthy owners who love the sport and who have three or more horses each are what every yard really needs. These owners are hopefully loyal and will use you year after year, topping up their stock. They are the ones who keep racing afloat.
In respect to training under saddle, what do the horses need to learn beyond the very basics of carrying a rider? In other words, what are some of the subtleties of a good racehorse's training? A lot of the time it's basic riding skills, shortening and quickening stride etc but the real aim is to get them to respond as well to the rider as possible. They have to respond to being asked to quicken or shorten. Ultimately each horse is different and generally the rider changes a lot to suit the horse.
Do you worry about having them change leads during certain sections of a race? With stride length, is it all based off rein cues since the jockey doesn't really have any leg (or seat!) aids to work with? Thank you! To be perfectly honest by this point I'm just glad I have got them there, it's the jockey's job to make sure he gives them a proper race. If you watch a race you will see the jockey uses his entire body when quickening, they still use their heels as much as they can!
So it's basically all about speed control? Could you explain how jockeys signal for the changes? Watch this
You can see as they come round the corner the jockey is holding his hands in a way that the bit just makes contact with the horse and holds it steady. When they ask them to go faster they break that contact and the horse no longer feel the bit and are physically encouraged by the jockeys movement.
Where do you get the leprechauns used in horse racing? and how do you coax them to ride horses for you? I generally find them hanging around rainbows actually. I offer them gold.
Did you ever get to work with / alongside Kauto Star? If so, just how awesome was he in person. His last King George win brought me to tears, such an amazing, beautiful horse! Sadly no but I was always a great fan of his. Great looking animal he was!
When I was in Newmarket visiting some of the tracks I was told that horse racing began to decline in the community when corruption with gambling and the treatment of jockeys were made aware. Due to these dilemmas, the community no longer firmly supported horse racing because it did not contribute to the steady state of the community that they initially sought. Is there truth to this? Can you further explain? Thanks! I think that maybe historically that could be the case but less so in this day and age. Nowadays corruption is rare and much easier to detect, staff welfare is very important and they have their own unions which continually lobby for better conditions.
Would you rather train 100 duck-sized horses or 1 horse-sized duck? Come on.
One horse sized duck. Think of the eggs...
Have u ever met John McCririck and is he a douchebag ? Not a face to face introduction but have attended several events he's been at.
Can confirm. Is a douchebag.
I just purchased an OTTB here in the US...he has set osselets and his last race was this past January. Is it common to race a horse with known ankle problems? Nope. If it moves badly it doesn't race. Fluid, comfortable movement is one of the most important things in horse welfare.
Do your racehorses piss frequently, or is it just that when they do have to piss, they really have to piss and can't hold it in? Aww man. They piss a lot. And it's not pleasant either. Did you know, horses are unable to walk and piss. They just can't do it.
Horses like to piss at irritating times, unless of course we are being dope tested and they will absolutely refuse for hours.
Did you know, horses are unable to walk and piss. I don't think that I could either; it's an eitheor thing for me. You should try it. it looks hilarious.
Odd question, but have you ever had any luck teaching them to do their business in one particular place, like a dog, or do they go pretty much anywhere? I worked at a stable once, and there was an old stallion who would only "go" in one corner of his stall... Horses are weird. There is no method. Some are just mental.
What kind of preparation does the horse go through the day and night before a race? I've always wondered do horses ever have a terrible nights sleep or a bad travel to the course and that causes them to under-perform. Whats the most common reason a horse under-performs in your opinion? There is a few things that may happen. If the race is far away the horse may travel to the racecourse the night before. This is to allow it to recover to be in best condition as long travel is taxing to the horse.
If it's at home I will give it less bulky feed at it's morning feed. Just high energy protein generally. We will then jump in the box and drive to the racecourse to arrive a few hours before the race. I think travel is a consideration when considering under performing horses.
Most common reasons for underperformance... I'd have to say the ground. If the ground isn't to the liking of the horse it can have a real effect on the way they run the race.
What happens to mediocre horses after they're through racing? We try to rehome them just as well as the best ones. A lot of owners really care about their horses and take them back for their retirement. If nothing can be done sometimes they have to be put down which is always sad.
What's the best breed? Both for racing and in general. Well thoroughbreds. It's the only professional racing in this country and I think they look just great.
Would it be legal for you to bet? It is legal for me to bet on one of my horses to win. I can't bet to lay a horse. I believe Jockeys can't bet at all.
Edit: Word change...
Who's going to win the Derby this year? God I wish I knew. Aidan O'Brien's probably got a good shot with his thing. That man gets some class horses.
What kind of jobs are there in the racing industry? I have grown up with horses and would love to work with them professionally but unsure what is available really. Do you need racing experience to become involved in the racing world? Exciting to see a fellow Brit here :) Try this
My best advice is find your local trainer and offer to work on weekends. They may pay you but they might not. If you're lucky they will give you a chance.
Hi,I was a part time worker of japanese horse racing track.it was the easiest and well paid job I have ever gotten. do you have any ideas to improve japanese horse racing industry?or do you know any good japanese jockeys or horses? Hey there, I don't really know much about Japanese racing apart from it's got one of the best prize money returns! I think we can learn a lot more from you than you could from us.
When jockeys change weights, do they have to make up additional weights? If so, how are the additional weights attached on? They do indeed need to carry more weight. This done in the form of weight plates, these are made of lead and added to a special weight cloth worn under the saddle.
Do you get to go to the races with the horses you train? I try to go with as many as I can, either to lead up and groom or to saddle up. Sadly I don't have as much time as I used to but I still make all the effort to go. Especially for my favourites.
If you make it to Brighton, there's a load of redditors who meet up several times a week. Fantastic! I quite frequently go to Fontwell and Plumpton which are both nearby (kinda) haven't raced at Brighton though. I will have to alert the redditors next time I'm there...
BTW, Where's Shergar?? I will forward that question to Findus for you. They are good at hiding horses.
Is operant conditioning used in training, i.e. race with other horses and reward the horse when it wins? I wouldn't say it's used as a training method. If one of mine wins I always give it a little something extra and a few days off.
My potential future father-in-law was a horse trainer in his youth. What are some things I can learn about it for conversation topics? Perhaps a book or some similar resource so I can ground myself in some of the basics? Just start to follow racing a little, try and understand how it works. As for books I don't really know anything personally but some people are great fans of the Dick Francis novels which are based round horse racing however I can't say I have read them.
What does it take to train a good racehorse? Im yet to have a good racehorse, maybe I could let you know in around 30-40 years? I might find one by then...
But seriously some guys have a really good strategy, Nicky Henderson is always right up there on the Jumps side and Aidan O'brien recently has been incredibly good. I think the trick is to lots of wealthy owners!
Does the industry believe that sheikh Mohammed's investigation, that coincidentally cleared him of any knowledge of what was going on, was genuine? Who knows? I doubt Shiekh Mohammed would have actually turned to his trainers and said "Use drugs bro." I would imagine that the environment of pressure he puts on those who work for him is so great they feel like they have no choice.
that Dubai airlines flight full of drugs... that was just a coincidence then? Not at all, the drugs scandal has stuck very firmly to Shiekh Mohammed. He might well be guilty but I wouldn't know either way!
Were you just at the gold cup in Cheltenham? My wife is from (and her parents still live) about five minutes drive from the track :) Sadly not the Gold Cup! I went on Thursday for the World Hurdle and it was a really great day. Cheltenham is one of the best courses in the country and I really love that part of the Cotswolds.
What happens to foals who don't make the cut as racing horses? We try to rehome and retrain as many unraceable thoroughbreds as possible. However if nothing else can be done some are sadly put down.
I've won the last two grand nationals with 100 to 1 winners from random tips off strangers on the internet. So random stranger do you have a tip for me? I am not your random stranger my friend. Go with your system, pick a long shot for the national. Anything could win it.
As someone from Louisville, Kentucky, have you ever been to Churchill Downs? If so, what is your opinion on the track? It's one of the most known tracks worldwide because of the Kentucky Derby. Sadly no! But I am visiting Kentucky this time next year so let me know what I should do when I visit.
Do ya'll eat the horses when they are too old to race? What do you think I ate for dinner? Pizza?
(It was Pizza...)
Hi! You answered in another question that the horses know they're going round in circles, they know where the stables are and so on, but how well do they understand the concept of racing - i.e. how well do they know that the point is to be ahead of all the other horses at a certain place? Yeah some are better suited to different kinds of races. Some like to be in front all the way and hate to have other horses compete with them. Other like to slowly build from the rear of the field and then burst forward using their turn of foot. Others just plod along at the same pace and hit the line just right.
Last updated: 2014-03-26 20:02 UTC
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[Table] IAmA: Hey Guys! I'm Andrea Boehlke, a two time Survivor contestant - AMA about my love of oatmeal, horse breeds, and oh, i guess survivor too!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-05-21
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
of all, I think you're great at Survivor and being a host for AskMen, I have a few questions... How different is Boston Rob from his edit? Who do you think is going to win tonight? In real life you don't see all the backstabbing that Boston Rob does... he's very charming. I think that's why he's one of the top Survivor players.
Both of your seasons were very poorly-received by fans. How did you feel about them as a viewer? Did you enjoy watching them? In both seasons, you were considered one of the high points in an otherwise unlikable and dull season; do you feel disappointed that people didn't like your seasons, or happy that you were one of the few things they enjoyed, or both? I'm surprised people didn't like Caramoan more. I think it turned out to be a pretty good season with some shocking TCs and interesting characters?? Did you like it? If not, I would be curious to why not. Ha! I definitely understand why people didn't like R.I. It was kind of a snooze fest. So predictable. Personally, I'm not crazy about watching my own seasons, I always get super anxious and freaked out about it.
Favorite season of Survivor that you weren't on? Probably this season to be honest! I think they did a wonderful job casting all new players who are ready to take risks. I'm kind of over returning players TBH unless it's a major all-star season.
Hi Andrea! In Redemption Island you described the relationship between Natalie and Rob as being "borderline creepy". Why did you feel that way? And do you still hold that belief, or was it just something you said "in the moment"? Honestly, I still feel bad about that comment. Natalie is the sweetest girl ever, and she was also only 19 at the time when she played R.I. I was JUST voted out and very bitter. I think at the time I was looking for an excuse to be bitchy. At the time I probably thought that was the case, but looking back... you just get sooo bitter and jealous it's not you in the final 3. Hey, I was much better my second time around, yah?? ;)
What did you do to prepare for Survivor? I always go into full on Survivor training mode. I start working out like crazy-- biking, hiking, running, swimming, usually I move back to WI a month or so before and try everything from sling shots to making fire and making my own fishing hooks. Before RI my family took a trip to the Boundary Waters to prepare as well.
Were there any funny stories from either of your seasons that were never aired? Something I will always remember is when Eddie and Erik started to get sooo hungry and they told us they were going to chop down a coconut tree. There were like, maybe 7 coconuts tops on this tree. We were all like, NO.
Were there any players whose games you looked to as inspiration before you went on? Everyone says Parvati, but there's a reason for that. She really is a solid player and uses her flirt card well (way more effectively than me;) But for my second season I guess I tried to use what I learned from Boston Rob.
Who are your favorite Survivor players? There's a lot! Strategy wise... some of my favs are B Rob, Cochran, Tyson, Rob C, Kim, Spencer, Sophie. I get a kick out of Coach. There's a lot of players I like for different reasons...
Who are you rooting for tonight, Tony, Spencer, Woo or Kass? I've been team Spencer for the entire season! So.. Team Spencer FTW!
If you were playing you'd have gotten Spencer out, though, right? Yeah.. I think you'd be silly to keep him around at this point if you were playing. However, I think I would gel with Spencer so I see him as someone I would have possibly aligned with.
Nooo. Sorry :(
Was Phillip as crazy as he came off or was it all just an act? Also, would you ever play again if they asked? It's not an act, per say, but he does know how to play to the cameras. I like Phillip-- he's just a very eccentric dude.
That's a good question! I'm not sure. It's really hard to say no when you get the call, but I'm not sitting here thinking about it too much.
Hey Andrea, I have a question about your Jury votes, In Both the seasons you where on you not only made jury both times, but also voted for the winner each time. Now of the 2 winners Boston rob, and Cochran. who did you feel the best about voting for? Do you feel Rob deserved to win more or Cochran? Oh man. I guess I felt "best" about voting for Cochran because he was a good friend of mine and I genuinely felt proud of him. I think Boston Rob played close to a "perfect game" but then again... look who he was playing with. He had it a lot easier. I remember not really wanting to vote for Rob, but I had no other choice.
You say that you're a lurker here. How is it that you managed to do so without building a spy shack? You're amazing
Would you ever consider doing Big brother? =] Absolutely not. They show EVERYTHING on that show, and I come from a pretty conservative family so I would feel like I would have to censor myself all the time.
What about Amazing Race? Who would you partner with? Ooh! See that I would do. Not sure who my partner would be? They don't really cast past reality contestants and someone random though. Usually it's some reality duo. Otherwise I would say my younger sister Sabrina would be pretty amazing at it.
You and Reynold seemed to hit it off at Ponderosa to say the least - did you snuff his torch or what? Oh my goodness, happy you brought that up. I was petrified when I watched that Ponderosa video. Reynold and I were 100% friends, he was like a brother to me. That video made it look like we were getting it onnn. Not the case.
Hi Andrea! Thanks for stopping by and answering our questions. I have two. Hello! Of course, thank you for stopping in!!
, how often do you get to see your former cast mates nowadays? I see the NYC Survivors the most, since I live here. A big group of us just did Escape The Room. When I was out in LA a few weeks back I was able to catch up with Natalie, Phillip, Cochran, Cha Cha, a few others. I like to keep in touch as much as I can.
Also, do you know how one might go about either being a part of the dream team or working with casting for Survivor? I'm not sure. I know when my sister came out to The Philippines (when she almost made the Family Visit episode) she got in touch with someone who hires for the Dream Team. She actually made a tape to apply for it, but they ended up not hiring her:/
Favorite memory from ponderosa? When I first got there, I heard from everyone that Phillip was IRATE. He was talking so much smack about me. So we had to have this deep discussion about how I really hurt his feelings and how this season didn't go like he thought it would. But then we made up, and then he shifted his focus to haaating Erik. And then Erik showed up and then he shifted his focus to haaating Dawn. It's funny what ponderosa does to people.
Andrea! How is your day going so far? Do you have any plans for this evening? My day is going wonderful! I might watch the Survivor finale with the NYC crew if I wrap this up in time. Otherwise I might crack a beer and watch at the office here. We also have cornhole! I'm weirdly good at that game
Glad to hear that you're having a wonderful day! What is your favorite beer then? Link to i.imgur.com
No lime? Lime Shortage, tough times
Anyways Cochran is also one of my favorite survivors, and I wondered whether or not you two are still friends because you seemed to get along well in the show and I know that you tweeted a lot of pictures of you guys hanging out for a little while after that season. Yeah Cochran is someone I can see myself being friends with for a while. He's in LA right now killing it writing for The Millers so we don't talk as much... but I'll always be a Cochran fan and when we do catch up it's nice.
EDIT: Also do you like Harry Potter? :) And yes, of course I like Harry Potter! Big Danny Radcliffe fan.
Then why didn't you throw in some Harry Potter references like Malcolm did with Lord of the Rings? Fans loved that. Not as cool as Malcolm I guess!
Just a follow up real quick, as soon as I saw Cochran for the first time I said he looks like one of my best friends, just wondering if you agree? Here is his picture: Link to pbs.twimg.com. There's definitely something there..
Good afternoon Andrea, I hope all is well! Getting back from Survivor, what's a non-oatmeal food you couldn't get enough of? Okay so peanut butter all the way. Peanut butter on fruit, peanut butter on a spoon, peanut butter smoothies (Malcolm made a really good peanut butter alcoholic smoothie drink), and also they had really good pancakes at ponderosa.
Is there anyone voted out after you in Caramoan that you would have voted for over Cochran? Well... if Dawn made the final three I probably would have voted for her because we were together the entire season and making a lot of moves together.
Do you mean if Dawn had made it sans Cochran...because she was in the F3...you could have voted for her... Yes. I think I would have voted for Dawn over anyone else.
Erik has stated on /survivor that if Eddie had won that final immunity challenge he probably would have won the season. Do you think that's true? Not sure. If Cochran is still there with Eddie in the top thee, Cochran wins. But if it's Eddie, Sherri and Dawn? That's tough. It's actually very possible! Which is crazy! But everyone was so pissed at Dawn at Ponderosa, that a bunch of people would have thrown their votes Eddie's way. Now I really wonder how that situation would have played out...
Hey Andrea! Do you think California Chrome will pull off the triple crown? Link to i.imgur.com
I remember the show describing you as a 'farm girl', what kind of farm did you grow up in? I grew up on a 2,000 acre cattle farm in Wisconsin. Up until age 19 I was showing steers, pigs and horses at the fair and at the state level. And now I live in NYC. Oh, life!
Did you get cast prior to moving to NYC or after? Most of the casting usually comes from big cities I heard. Before! I sent in an audition tape that I taped on our farm, over a year before moving to NYC. Got it on my first submission.
Thanks for doing this AMA! Who from either of your previous seasons that has played only once would you like to see get a second chance? RI- I doubt they would ever bring anyone back from here at this point, but Mike Chiesl is actually a very interesting dude, despite what you saw from his edit. He's really funny actually. And David Murphy could have been a good villain. I feel bad, those two really got the short end of the stick. It would also be interesting to see what Matt Elrod would do if he ever came back... would he drop the moral shtick and play a completely different game?? Could be really intriguing.
Caramoan- Reynold would be cool to bring back, but I know he said he wouldn't play again. Plus, he's like... having babies and all that. I'm also in love with Snowy and Matt The Beard... those guys would have been great on an all-newbie season. Also, Allie, if she would have gotten further in the game, could have been a dynamite player. At least that's what I think.
What's your favourite element of the periodic table? Chromium obviously... all about the bling.
Lol, I think he was going for Polonium. Polonium is the most unstable element in my periodic table.
)
If Caramoan had ended up being an F2 with Erik and Dawn, who would you have voted for, and who do you think would have won? I would have definitely voted for Dawn. I had a relationship with Dawn, and she actually had some really good moves in the game-- getting information from Corinne, the boys, etc. She just went a little crazy at the end there-- but even she would tell you that ;) Love Dawn.
Would you have voted for Eddie over anyone else who was in that final ~5? The show made it look like you guys bonded, but of course it's highly edited. Hmmm... it's tough. It depends on if he did anything strategic towards the end of the game. But if it was Eddie, Erik and Sherri, then it's possible. I would have probably voted for Brenda over Eddie.
What bet did you make at the 2014 Kentucky Derby? It was a trifecta box on one of the first races.
You'd kill your king?! You may have just broken the internet with that response. A survivor world without Malcolm?! You cray. Hahaha.. okay fair point! I switch it up. Let's ding Malcolm. Goodbye Eddie :(
I owe you a big thank you. I was going to UWSP, and I saw an article in the paper about a student being on Survivor. My brother was always telling me I should watch it. I figured I might as well watch and cheer on a fellow Pointer. Since then, I have not missed a single episode. I am hooked. And I have made a bunch of friends just because we are Survivor nerds. THANK YOU. As for a question... gotta go back to the roots. You can only order one thing from Belts. What do you get? Hello fellow Pointer!!! I am so glad I got you hooked ;) It's an addicting show! You are very welcome, I do what I can!
Ding, marry, kill: Eddie, Elrod and Malcolm. Well, you have to marry Elrod... we all know this. Probably ding Eddie... and I'll just kill Malcolm because it's very unlikely he ever reads this.
It's great to see so many Survivor AMAs recently. Seeing as you are Miss Survivor, and the host of Reality Game Masters I was wondering if there was anything in the works for the survivor of season in rhap. I hope so!! I just saw Rob C out in LA about a month ago and we were throwing around some ideas. I'm hoping something really cool is in the works very soon :)
Last updated: 2014-05-25 23:10 UTC
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How to Bet the Kentucky Derby & More Kentucky Derby betting strategy: Daniel Sechtin gives some ... Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips and Picks How to Bet on The Kentucky Derby 3 Tips for Betting the Kentucky Derby - YouTube

2020 Kentucky Derby Betting Strategy. You might be surprised to find out that there is an international road to the Kentucky Derby. The road includes a new 2020 Kentucky Derby betting lines strategy. Did you know that race courses all around the have ways for their local bloodstock to qualify for the First Saturday in May? A horse betting strategy will eventually help you to pick the right option and the right time to put more money into a particular horse and event. Don’t worry, though. We’ve got you covered with 5 brilliant tips to rock n’ roll in horse betting strategy and win wagers that can be out of this world during the Kentucky Derby 2019. My betting strategy is to play against both Honor A. P. and Authentic and use Thousand Words and the four longshots above under Tiz the Law in the trifecta and superfecta. A $1 trifecta using 17 with 7,8,10,12,15 with 7,8,10,12,15 will cost $20 or $10 if you play the 50-cent minimum (it would be $30 and $15, respectively, if you wanted to add ... LAS VEGAS — Saturday’s Kentucky Derby boils down to two factors. Does Tiz The Law continue on his path toward becoming a super horse? Or do you find the horse that is going to beat Tiz the Law? Usually staged on the first Saturday in May but delayed in 2020 until September 5 due to the worldwide coronavirus outbreak, the Kentucky Derby is the highlight of an amazing weekend of betting at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky with the race carrying an amazing $2 million in prize money.

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How to Bet the Kentucky Derby & More

Mike Shutty, author of the Super Screener, gives you 3 great tips for betting the Kentucky Derby. For more information, visit https://www.SuperScreener.com. In Horse Racing the Kentucky Derby 2019 is here. We give our betting predictions, and analysis on the Derby. We gives out our favorite to win the race with the Kentucky Derby odds along with some ... Mark Bergin asked WHAS 11 anchor Daniel Sechtin about his Kentucky Derby gambling strategy. In a nutshell: Prepare to lose the money you wager. https://apple... Betting on the Kentucky Derby: Two minutes, that's all it takes to be crowned the Kentucky Derby winner. From straight bets like Win/Place/Show to more exotic bets like Exactas and Trifectas, we ... Derek Simon, editor of U.S. Racing, discusses the different bet types and what they mean, so that you can better watch and wager on the Kentucky Derby. Derek covers traditional bets — like win ...

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